Washington Examiner

Dems weigh whether to go big in Florida and Texas Senate races – Washington Examiner

As the 2024 elections approach, national Democrats are ‌contemplating significant investments in Senate‍ races in Texas and Florida. This comes in response to the tightening competition against incumbent⁣ Republicans, Ted Cruz in‌ Texas and⁣ Rick Scott in Florida.⁤ Both races, once considered long​ shots for Democrats, are ‌now seeing increased engagement due to⁤ weak polling for the Republican candidates.

Colin‌ Allred, a Democratic representative, ⁤is‌ challenging Cruz and has reportedly ‌narrowed the polling gap to about three ‌points, indicating competitive momentum. Meanwhile, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell‌ is running​ against ⁣Scott,⁢ with both candidates needing considerable financial support to boost⁣ their campaigns in ​the final stretch of the election.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has already ⁢committed ⁢over $54 million in⁤ advertising across various battleground states. However, with ‍concerns about losing the Senate majority, strategists are ‌urging the ‍party to ​focus resources on Florida⁤ and Texas, potentially reallocating‌ funds from other competitive states to enhance their chances in these key races.

Democratic leaders,⁤ including ⁤Sen.⁢ Gary Peters, acknowledge the urgency of supporting⁤ their challengers in​ the face of formidable Republican⁤ incumbents and shifting election dynamics, ⁣suggesting‍ that the party is prepared to⁣ “gamble” on these ‌critical battlegrounds.


Democrats weigh whether to go big in Florida and Texas Senate races

National Democrats are mulling whether they have cash and time to go all in against GOP-held Senate seats in Texas and Florida with one month out to the election.

With signs that Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) seat is slipping away in a race that could deliver the chamber majority to Republicans, Democrats have only just recently gone on offense with last-minute, modest ad-buys against Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL).

But they’ll likely need to pony up millions of dollars more in campaign ads in the final month if they want to buoy their Democratic underdog challengers across the finish line.  

“Given the fact that the Democrats are in great danger of losing the Senate, I think you got to gamble,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “I think you’ve got to pull out all stops and go into those states, even if that means pulling back some money in some of the other battleground states.”

In Texas, Cruz faces Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX). In Florida, Scott is up against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). Polls and predictions from nonpartisan election forecasters suggest both races are tightening for seats that many Democrats once privately felt were out of play.

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), chairman of the Democratic Senate Committee Campaign, who’s tasked with keeping the majority, declined to reveal Friday whether the national party would commit additional resources beyond its already announced “multimillion-dollar” endeavor.

“Our challengers are running against unpopular Republican incumbents who have very weak polling,” Peters said. “We’ve got momentum. The more resources we’re able to marshal to put into Florida and Texas, I believe we have a real shot to win those as well.”

Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 6, 2024. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is also pictured behind him to the right. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

The DSCC has placed more than $54 million in ad reservations this year across more than a half-dozen battleground states that the party must defend to keep the majority.

With Democrats playing defense in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, and Ohio, there are few options to go on offense against sitting Republicans.

Bannon said Democrats should consider pumping money into Florida and Texas to avoid “oversaturating” voters in swing states who are already being bombarded with presidential ads. He cited the Maryland Senate race between former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Prince George’s County Angela Alsobrooks (D) as another example of misplaced money, where Democratic PACs, including one tied to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), recently dumped more than a million dollars.

“I think you can spend too much in a state,” Bannon said. “Any extra dollar you spend in those [swing] states is not cost-effective.”

Texas and Florida are both big states and with big states come big media markets with big price tags. Democrats are within striking distance, but they know their money won’t go as far as elsewhere in the country.

Allred has closed his deficit to Cruz to an average of roughly three points. Mucarsel-Powell’s race against Scott has similarly tightened to about three points behind the incumbent.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted Cruz’s seat to the more competitive category “lean Republican,” one step shy of a “toss-up.” Scott’s race is considered safer as “likely Republican.”

The Cook Political Report‘s Political Senate and Governors editor, Jessica Taylor, laid out the case that the politically savvy move for Democrats would be to stick with one: Texas.

“[I]t’s hard to see Democrats being able to go all-in on both given the amount of defense they have to play,” she recently wrote. “Taking a comprehensive look at both races, we view Texas as at least slightly more competitive, as do both parties privately. We’ve seen tightening polling in both, but it’s Texas that meets the bar to move into a more competitive category.”



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