Derrick Van Orden could face tight election against a Democratic challenger: Poll – Washington Examiner
Representative Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) may face a challenging election in November, as a recent poll by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee indicates he is only one point ahead of a generic Democratic challenger, with Van Orden at 48% and the Democrat at 47%. This poll surveyed 600 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%. A notable concern for Van Orden is his weak support among independent voters, who favor the Democrat by 14 points and constitute 39% of the electorate in his district.
The poll also suggests that a generic Republican candidate performs better against the Democratic challenger compared to Van Orden, hinting at vulnerabilities in his campaign. Additionally, when voters were presented with both positive and negative information about Van Orden, the race ended in a tie at 47%.
Critics, particularly from the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, have characterized Van Orden’s tenure as problematic, citing failures to fulfill key promises and unprofessional behavior. As the elections approach, excitement among Democrats may increase due to Vice President Kamala Harris’s prominent role, heightening the likelihood of potential challenges to Van Orden’s seat in this pivotal swing state.
Derrick Van Orden could face tight election against a Democratic challenger: Poll
EXCLUSIVE — Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) could face an uphill battle against a challenger come November, according to a new poll.
A poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Van Orden is polling just 1 point behind a generic Democratic challenger. The Democratic outfit is bullish on its chances of flipping Van Orden’s seat in the crucial swing state and excitement could increase now that Vice President Kamala Harris has taken President Joe Biden’s place at the top of the party’s ticket.
Van Orden polled at 48% while a generic Democrat earned 47% of the support, with 5% undecided. Those figures are within the margin of error. The results of this poll are based on a survey of 600 likely voters for the 2024 general election and was conducted from May 29-31 through landline, cell phone, and text-to-web. The margin of error is plus or minus 4% at a 95% confidence interval.
Self-identified independent voters are Van Orden’s weakness here as he trailed a generic Democrat by 14 points among independents. This group makes up 39% of the likely electorate in his district.
When the poll ran a generic Republican against a generic Democrat, a generic Republican polled stronger (50%) than a generic Democrat (45%), which is 4 points stronger than Van Orden’s margin.
When those polled were given more information both positive and negative about Van Orden, the race was tied at 47%.
“Derrick Van Orden’s first two years in Congress have been an embarrassment full of tantrums and online meltdowns. Van Orden has failed to keep his promise of delivering a Farm Bill, bullied his own constituents online, and harassed teenagers in the halls of the US Capitol,” Joe Oslund, communications director of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “It’s no wonder polling is showing his support sagging — people are getting sick of Derrick Van Orden.”
The primary for Van Orden’s future Democratic challenger has yet to take place. Those in the running for the Democratic nomination include business owner Rebecca Cooke, state Rep. Katrina Shankland, and information technology professional Eric Wilson. Wisconsin’s primary is Aug. 13.
Van Orden represents Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, which encompasses the southwestern portion of the state. It includes some historically Democratic-leaning cities such as La Crosse and Minnesota Twin Cities ex-suburbs, while also being largely rural.
The region has historically voted for centrist candidates, but in recent years it has moved slightly to the right. The Cook Political Report labeled the district as leans Republican.
Van Orden’s campaign did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment.
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