Does DeSantis being the top second choice for GOP voters matter?

Former President Donald Trump ‍Maintains‌ Strong Lead in Republican Primary

Former President Donald Trump continues​ to dominate the Republican primary race, holding‌ a significant lead over all other contenders. However, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has emerged as​ the top second choice among Republican likely voters. This indicates⁢ a closer competition ⁤when considering voters who ‍are still considering DeSantis or view him as their second choice.

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Pollster Ann ⁢Selzer⁣ explains that DeSantis and⁣ Trump are closely​ matched in terms of their presence and⁤ traction within the caucus-going community. Selzer’s recent Des Moines Register-NBC News-Mediacom Iowa poll reveals ⁢that DeSantis performs better in the state compared to national measures, while Trump’s support remains‌ below 50% but⁢ still maintains a plurality of Iowans.

Selzer’s firm​ has developed a metric called a “footprint” to determine ‍a candidate’s traction.⁤ When comparing Trump and‌ DeSantis’s footprints, they are nearly equal, with Trump at 63% and DeSantis‌ at 61%. This metric combines the percentage of voters who consider the candidate as their first ⁤or second choice, as well as those actively considering the​ candidate. It provides ⁤insights into a ⁢candidate’s potential for growth.

Pollster Doug Usher emphasizes the importance of ‌the second ‍choice metric, especially ⁢in a close race at the ‌top. ⁤However, he acknowledges that when one‌ candidate, like Trump, holds a ​significant lead, ⁢the second choice metric ⁣becomes less valuable. For DeSantis or another candidate to pose a real challenge to Trump, they would need ‍to narrow the gap in the polls.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, agrees that the second choice metric only becomes relevant if Trump’s stature weakens in the polls. He believes it could be ‍crucial in‍ determining who⁣ might succeed DeSantis as the second-place candidate if Trump’s numbers decline.

Chris Jackson, Ipsos senior vice president of public ⁣affairs, suggests that these metrics become more ⁢significant in an election ‌cycle where the likely⁤ Republican nominee is a former president facing⁤ multiple indictments. Ipsos measures who voters are still considering, providing valuable information about the candidates in the mix alongside Trump.

Robert Blizzard, a partner at ⁤Public Opinion Strategies, highlights the importance of candidates’ images and whether voters ‍would ⁤consider supporting them. He notes that DeSantis currently has the best image‍ among⁣ Republican voters in Iowa, making him a strong contender.

Andrew Smith, director of the University ⁢of New Hampshire Survey Center, believes that broader measures of public opinion, such as ‍net favorability ratings and​ the percentage of ⁤voters who consider a⁤ candidate as their second choice, offer a better understanding of the race’s dynamics.

While these metrics provide valuable insights, Smith warns against using them to predict the primary result due to ⁤the electorate’s limited engagement⁢ at this‍ stage. Selzer, however, considers these metrics valuable⁤ in Iowa’s caucus format, where voters can be‌ persuaded to change their initial preferences.

The Iowa caucuses, ⁤scheduled⁣ for ⁣January ‍15,‍ are expected to set the tone for the rest of the primary contests. With ⁤so many unpredictable variables, including Trump’s indictments, the race remains open, and DeSantis and other candidates still have opportunities to‌ make an impact.

Overall, these‌ metrics offer a broader picture of the race and ​highlight the⁢ malleability of voter preferences. While Trump⁤ remains‍ a strong frontrunner, the data suggest that voters are⁣ not ‌firmly locked in, leaving room for other candidates to gain support.

As the ⁣primary race progresses, candidates will have⁢ months to make an impression on Republican voters before the Iowa caucuses, providing ample opportunity for shifts in the dynamics of the race.

It is important to note​ that Trump’s availability ⁤on the campaign ⁣trail may be affected by his indictments,⁤ potentially creating opportunities for other‍ candidates ⁢to gain⁤ momentum.

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