Donald Trump indicted: Can he turn Manhattan grand jury vote into 2024 gold?

The long-awaited New York indictment of former President Donald Trump, which was handed down on Thursday, will test whether he can continue to defy the laws of political gravity.

The rumors of the Manhattan grand jury indictment, stoked by Trump himself and rallied the Republican base behind the former president, who has already announced for 2024.

Republican voters believe that the criminal justice system has been weaponized against conservatives, and Trump’s argument is that if this can be done to him, it could happen to any of his supporters.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is viewed as a partisan figure, and the legal case is believed by some experts to not be very strong. But there is no guarantee that this will continue to redound to Trump’s benefit.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is not a declared candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, but the expected contender has already displayed a willingness to relitigate Trump’s alleged affair with Stormy Daniels, a story that might not age well with social conservatives. And the central appeal of the Florida governor is that he is a no-drama alternative to Trump.

Trump, by contrast, is leaning into the drama, denouncing Bragg as the latest of his Democratic tormentors. Trump could easily use his perp walk to galvanize the Republican base. Many in his orbit are seeking to turn his legal woes into a political windfall.

President Joe Biden and the White House have remained quiet about Trump’s latest legal issues. Many Republicans allege the indictment is designed to aid Biden politically, pointing to the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation during the 2016 campaign.

It is possible that even if an indictment helps Trump in the Republican primaries, it won’t have the same effect in a general election. Trump will carry the distinction of being the first president ever to be indicted, a marker that does not seem likely to enable him to win back suburban voters who swung against him four years ago.

Both Biden and DeSantis are likely to play up the chaotic nature of Trump’s presidency. There is also the possibility that the Manhattan grand jury will only be the beginning of the legal troubles Trump will face, with other investigations looming elsewhere on multiple fronts.

For now, Trump is betting he can benefit politically from a legal development that would doom any more conventional campaign. To him, the grand jury vote is the ultimate proof of his argument that he is the victim of a sustained witch hunt.

The question is how long Republican primary voters will agree.