Dow Jones Falls Ahead of Friday Jobs Report

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended nearly 200 points lower as investors awaited Friday jobs data.

The 30-stock index ended down 194.76 points, or 0.56%, to close at 34,395.01.

The S&P 500 ended down 0.09% to end the session at 4,076.57. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.13%, closing at 11,482.45.

— Alex Harring

Citi initiated coverage on GoodRx with a buy rating, saying investors should buy into the telemedicine name as the selloff is overdone. Shares of GoodRx are down 85% this year.

“In our view, GDRX will continue to serve a vital role in bringing transparency/consumerism to a historically unshopable market,” analyst Daniel Grosslight wrote in a Wednesday note.

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— Sarah Min

Stocks were unable to continue Wednesday’s rally because investors were awaiting a key jobs report coming Friday, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.

He said investors were purposefully pulling back ahead of non-farm payroll data coming in the morning. Investors will also be watching for data on hourly pay and the unemployment rate.

“US stocks were unable to hold onto earlier gains as Wall Street digested a swathe of economic data that showed inflation is easing and the labor market is cooling,” Moya said. “It’s been a nice rally but no one wants to be aggressively bullish heading into the NFP report.”

Investors will be looking for the right, middle-ground data, said Megan Horneman, chief investing officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. That means it’s weak enough to show interest rate hikes are having the intended impact of economic contracting, while being strong enough to signal a recession could be avoided.

“A big number will spook the markets further that the Fed’s not going to be able to slow down their pace of rate hikes,” said Megan Horneman, chief investing officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, of Friday’s jobs data.

With “a so-so number, I think the markets can maybe rally on that,” she added. “But if you get a really weak number, it’s just going to spook investors after such a strong rally we’ve seen in November.”

— Alex Harring

Piper Sandler reduced revenue forecasts for Apple for the December quarter, the firm’s Harsh Kumar said in a note Thursday.

China’s zero-Covid policy has led to major disruptions at the company’s Zhengzhou plant, he said, and stoked fears about supply chain challenges. Markets reacted earlier this week to protests of Covid precautions in China that elevated fears of supply chain snafus coming back along with increased restrictions.

“We are assuming a reduction of ~9 million handset units primarily for the new models produced in November,” Kumar said. “We note that Covid restrictions have since been relaxed. We also note that greater than 50% of iPhone production comes out of the Zhengzhou facility where there have been numerous public reports of unrest from workers.”

“We believe that Apple remains a formidable brand and reiterate Overweight despite our temporary reduction from unforeseen events,” he added.

— Tanaya Macheel

The indexes presented a mixed picture heading into the final hour of trading.

The Dow was down 165 points, dragged in part by a 9% drop in Salesforce stock on the news of its co-CEO stepping away. But that was off a deeper cut earlier in the day more than 400 points.

The S&P 500 was up just 0.1%, continuing to trade close to the flatline. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite continued performing slightly better, with the tech-heavy average up 0.3%.

— Alex Harring

Thursday marked the first day of a new trading month as the market came off a winning November.

The S&P 500 and Dow each had the second straight month of gains, rising 5.38% and 5.67%, respectively. That monthly streak was the first for each since August 2021.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.37%, which was its second positive month in a row. That was the first time the tech-heavy index started a streak since it saw three straight months of wins ending with December 2021.

— Alex Harring

Shares of movie theater chain AMC Entertainment Holdings jumped 24% on Thursday as volatility returned to one of the flagship meme stocks.

There was no apparent news driving the share movement. Trading volume has already surpassed 68 million shares for the day, the highest level since August, according to FactSet.

AMC stock remains well off its highs from last year. Even with Thursday’s jump, it trades below $10 per share, so even large percentage moves amount to small changes in dollar terms.

—Jesse Pound

A key measure of inflation released Thursday shows how inflation within goods and services differs, according to Peter Essele, head of portfolio management for Commonwealth Financial Network.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a Fed-favored index that excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in October. Though it was up 5% from a year ago, the monthly gain was slightly cooler than the 0.3% expected by Dow Jones. Meanwhile, the year-over-year gain was in line with analyst expectations.

“The PCE numbers confirmed that it’s a tale of two inflations. Service inflation continues to accelerate while goods prices are softening, particularly in pandemic hotbed areas like home furnishings and autos,” Essele said. “Powell’s comments yesterday reconfirmed that the Fed is intent on tackling service elements of inflation, which offered reassurance to investors and sent equity markets higher. If the Fed achieves its goal of a soft landing, the Santa Claus rally that’s forming may evolve into a full-scale bull market in 2023.”   

— Alex Harring

Gold futures traded up 3.1%, on track for its best daily performance since 2020.

It’s the sixth positive session in the last seven. The last time it performed better was April 9, 2020, when it added 4.07%.

Meanwhile, gold hit a high of $1,818,40, which was its highest level since Aug. 17. If it settles there, it would be the highest point since Aug. 12. Gold is up 3.4% so far this week, on pace to crack a two-week losing streak. The metal soared as the prospect of slowing interest rate hikes hurt the dollar.

Gold is set to close above its 200-day moving average for the first time since June 16.

— Alex Harring, Chris Hayes, Nick Wells

A slew of technology and retail stocks made the biggest moves during midday trading Thursday.

Salesforce — Shares of the cloud-based software company slid more than 9% after the firm announced the sudden departure of co-CEO Bret Taylor.

Costco – Shares of retailer Costco shed nearly 6% after the company reported softer-than-expected sales figures for November that could signal a weak consumer heading into the holiday shopping season.

Okta — The identity management software provider’s stock surged more than 23% after the company shared a better-than-expected outlook and topped Wall Street’s estimates for the recent period.

Dollar General – The discount retailer saw its shares drop more than 8% after posting earnings for the latest quarter than fell short of analysts’ expectations by 21 cents per share and lowered its annual forecast due to higher costs.

Read the full list of stocks moving midday here.

— Samantha Subin

The three major indexes were moving positively as investors looked to the second half of the trading day.

The Dow was down 179 points, or 0.5%, despite trading down as low as 460 points earlier in the day.

The S&P 500 was near its flatline after trading as low as 0.7% down. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.2% after jumping between trading up and down for much of the morning.

— Alex Harring

There should be “hard soft-landing” in 2023, according to Societe Generale.

It will be “not as bearish” as 2022 with likely better returns as Fed interest rate hikes cool. The firm’s scenario also predicts per-share earnings growth to be flat as negative growth in the first half of the year will give way to China re-opening and a Fed pivot later in the year.

Investors should expect the year to start defensive but end more offensive, according to Societe Generale. However, the firm warned those gains could be tempered by a potential U.S. recession in 2024.

“At 4000 today, we estimate the S&P 500 is pricing in an 80% chance of a soft landing,” Manish Kabra, the firm’s head of U.S. equity strategy, said in a note to clients. The index is down 9.7% compared with the start of 2022.

Kabra recommended investors look to defensive stocks over high-leverage ones, noting a specific preference for industrials over consumer names within the cyclical space.

— Alex Harring

The looming potential for a U.S. railroad strike could cause economic damage, including a possible spike in inflation, according to MSCI.

Researchers Will Baker and Thomas Verbraken used estimates from the Association of American Railroads and the American Chemistry Council to game out the impact of a strike under multiple scenarious.

Under a scenario where a rail strike causes short-term economic damage, U.S. equities could fall 3% and the 10-year Treasury yield could rise by 15 basis points, or 0.15 percentage points, according to MSCI.

A longer-lasting impact, on the other hand, could cause a 14% decline for equities and 35 basis point increase in the benchmark Treasury yield.

— Jesse Pound

The outlook for Salesforce remains attractive despite signs of slowing revenue growth, according to Morgan Stanley.

“A significantly larger drop in top-line growth vs peers begs the question of whether Salesforce is seeing pressures beyond the macro,” wrote analyst Keith Weiss in a note to clients Thursday. “While it appears the customer base is in digestion mode [near-term], we remain convinced in the potential of a ~20% EPS CAGR [long-term], which makes the ~20X P/E multiple attractive.”

Shares of the software stock slid 10% after the company announced the departure of co-CEO Bret Taylor on Wednesday, in tandem with quarterly results that beat estimates on the top and bottom lines and light guidance.

Despite some setbacks, Weiss views the company as “strongly committed” to boosting profitability, saying that strong execution and changes, such as a slower hiring pace, should enable Salesforce to hit management’s goal of greater than 25% operating margins by 2026.

“While lack of upside to what we expected to be a quite conservative Q3 guidance and the further deterioration signaled by the Q4 outlook were disappointments, we continue to believe in Salesforce’s long-term positioning as a core consolidator of front-office functionality,” he said.

— Samantha Subin

Costco shares dropped more than 6% after its November sales results showed more than a 10% decline in online sales for the warehouse retailer.

Wells Fargo said it remained equal weight rating on the stock in light of this print, saying it’s indicative of additional headwinds on the horizon for the company.

“Comps carry risk of slowing more than anticipated on food dis-inflation, the lapping of outsized traffic gains in gas, and a weakening consumer,” Wells analysts said in a note. “An eventual pullback in fuel margins and currency exposure could add further pressure to momentum.”

— Yun Li

JPMorgan downgraded shares of Victoria’s Secret to neutral from overweight after its latest earnings results, citing pressure from a tough macro backdrop for the lingerie company’s core business.

“While VSCO is the leading market share player in US lingerie (~20% share) and women’s mass fragrance (~30% share) categories, and has outlined structural cost reductions of ~$250M over the next 3-yrs – top-line growth & gross profit dollars have declined sequentially tied to an increasingly cautious macro-economic backdrop, hindering the brand’s growth & profitability profile,” analyst Matthew Boss wrote in a Thursday note.

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— Sarah Min

Despite dipping down, the Nasdaq moved back into trading up.

Shortly after 11 a.m., the tech-heavy index was up about 0.1%.

The S&P 500 also made up ground and was trading near flat.

The Dow was trading down just under 300 points, or 0.9%, after breaking the 400-point mark earlier. Salesforce‘s 9.5% drop on news of the co-CEO stepping down has weighed on the index.

— Alex Harring

December is typically a positive month for stocks and this year should be no exception, said CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall.

“December since World War II has been the best month of the year not only in terms of average price change but also batting average, frequency of advance,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” Thursday.

Even with midterm election years, you end up with a good December, he said. While the year-to-date returns heading into the month were among the 10 worst since World War II, you still end up with a 60% frequency of advance, he added.

“Investors would want to continue to look for a seasonal rally to occur this month,” Stovall said.

— Michelle Fox

The major indexes moved downward as investors moved on from Thursday economic data and more coming Friday on jobs.

The Dow was down more than 350 points, or 1%.

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 lost 0.6% and 0.5%.

— Alex Harring

A widely followed gauge of manufacturing activity posted its lowest reading in two and a half years for November.

The ISM Manufacturing Index registered a reading of 49%, representing the level of businesses reporting expansion for the period. The reading was 1.2 percentage points below October and the lowest since May 2020, in the early days of the Covid pandemic.

Declines in order backlogs (-5.3 points) and imports (-4.2 points) were the biggest drags on the index. The closely watched prices index was off 3.6 points to 43%, indicating inflation is abating, while the employment index also receded, down 1.6 points to 48.4% an contraction territory.

Markets were lower following the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off more than 200 points as of 10:10 a.m.

—Jeff Cox

Snowflake‘s slower usage patterns may plague the stock in the short term, but the company is still set up for long-term growth, analysts from Morgan Stanley and MoffettNathanson said.

The cloud data platform provider provided light product revenue guidance when it reported third-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday. The stock fell more than 5% in extended trading Wednesday but opened higher Thursday, last up more than 4%.

“The stock has the highest valuation in our coverage, so it is likely to take a hit on next quarter guide, but we think this is a unique asset and it is unlikely to trade at a cheap valuation,” MoffettNathanson analyst Sterling Auty wrote in a note Wednesday. “We think investors that are patient, and average into positions on these pullbacks, will be rewarded over time.”

Morgan Stanley expects consumption patterns to remain volatile over the next few quarters. However, its core drivers of long-term growth will sustain well, analyst Keith Weiss said.

“Strong customer adds, rapidly improving FCF [free-cash-flow] margins and de-risked FY24 outlook keep us OW on a story that is likely one of the first to re-accelerate coming out of the downturn,” he wrote in a note Thursday.

— Michelle Fox

The major indexes were mixed as trading began Thursday.

The Dow shed 52 points, or 0.2%, as Salesforce weighed on the index after it said its CEO was leaving.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each added 0.2%.

— Alex Harring

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest bought the dip in cybersecurity company CrowdStrike Wednesday.

The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF purchased 39,222 shares of CrowdStrike as the stock sold off nearly 15% after the company said new revenue growth was weaker than expected. Ark’s purchase was worth about $4.6 million based on the stock’s Wednesday close of $117.65 per share.

— Yun Li

Futures ticked up following data released mid-hour on consumer prices.

See how the three indexes moved over the last hour:

— Alex Harring

The volume of jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 26 was smaller than expected, according to the Department of Labor.

The week saw 225,000 claims of unemployment, which is below Dow Jones’ consensus estimate of 235,000 and a smaller number than the prior week’s 240,000. That means fewer Americans than expected and than the week before are without jobs.

That can indicate the labor market is healthier than anticipated with less Americans reportedly out of work. However, the data does not bode well for those looking for indicators that prior interest rate hikes from the Fed are making the economy contract.

— Alex Harring

The Bureau of Economic Analysts reported that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, a key gauge of inflation, rose 0.2% in October. That’s less than the Dow Jones expected increase of 0.3%.

Following the report, Treasury yields declined amid optimism over inflation easing.

— Fred Imbert

Corporate news drove early stock moves. These are some of the biggest changes:

Dollar General – The discount retailer slumped 6.1% in premarket trading after cutting its annual forecast due to higher costs. Dollar General posted quarterly earnings that missed Street forecasts, but its revenue and comparable store sales beat analyst estimates.

Salesforce – Shares fell 7.4% in the premarket after the business software company announced that co-CEO Bret Taylor would be stepping down January 31, leaving Chairman Marc Benioff as the sole CEO. Salesforce also reported better than expected quarterly profit and revenue.

Kroger – The supermarket operator reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter, and it raised its full-year forecast. Comparable store sales also beat expectations. Kroger shares added 3.7% in the premarket.

Snowflake – Snowflake lost 5.9% in off-hours trading after the data software provider issued a cautious forecast, even as it reported quarterly results that beat analyst estimates.

Five Below – Five Below rallied 9.3% in premarket trading in the wake of better-than-expected quarterly results. The discount retailer said customer traffic and spending improved throughout the quarter, and effective expense management also helped.

Okta – Okta shares surged 15.9% in early trading as the identity management software company issued upbeat revenue guidance for its full fiscal year.

See the full list here.

— Peter Schacknow, Alex Harring

Futures connected to the Dow turned up slightly, gaining 23 points or 0.1%.

That brought the index’s futures in line with S&P-500 and Nasdaq-100 futures. It also marks a return to the broadly positive movement that was seen in Wednesday afternoon trading on the heels of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on future interest rate hikes likely slowing.

Nasdaq-100 and S&P-500 futures each traded up 0.2% at the same time.

— Alex Harring

S&P 500 futures turned green Thursday morning, trading up 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures followed in suit, also gaining 0.1%.

Futures connected to the Dow also made up ground, trading down 10 points, which is close to the flatline.

— Alex Harring

Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, joined a growing chorus of market observers saying Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s apparent confirmation of slowing interest rate hikes will be good for markets. He also said it will support a near-term boost.

“In the absence of a very clear signal that markets misinterpreted Powell or a significantly higher-than-expected inflation reading, stocks are likely to push higher over the near term — especially with year-end trading dynamics now in play,” he said in a Thursday note to clients.

He said the Fed will still likely hike higher to around a 5.5% rate or pause around the 5% mark into 2024, which is longer than some expect.

Meanwhile, he said the Fed’s liquidity seen in the System Open Market Account, Treasury general account and reverse repossessions will turn “much more negative,” which could create headwinds in the month ahead.

— Alex Harring

Futures connected to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down going into the final two hours before the bell – a turn from the broad rally seen in Wednesday trading.

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures each shed about 0.1%. Futures connected to the Dow had a slightly bigger loss of 0.2%.

It follows a strong afternoon rally seen on the back of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s indication that interest rate hikes would be slowing as early as December. The Dow ended Wednesday’s session more than 700 points higher despite trading negatively earlier in the day.

Futures opened trading up Wednesday night coming off the afternoon rally.

— Alex Harring

Ally Financial slid 3% in the premarket after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight, citing concerns around consumer credit heading into 2023.

“ALLY is exposed to subprime consumers with roughly ⅓ of their retail auto loans extended to this group (below 660 FICO),” Morgan Stanley wrote in a Thursday note.

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— Sarah Min

European markets were higher on Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said smaller interest rate hikes could begin in December.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up 1.1% by mid-afternoon to notch a six-month high. Tech stocks added 3% to lead gains while oil and gas stocks fell 0.6%.

European markets traded higher on Wednesday to close out a strong month, as regional investors reacted to the latest inflation data from the euro zone in November.

– Elliot Smith

– Jihye Lee

All the major averages finished November on a positive note.

The Dow and S&P gained 5.67% and 5.38%, respectively, capping off a second consecutive positive month for the indices for the first time since August 2021.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied 4.37%, its second consecutive positive month since its three-month win streak ended in December 2021.

Following November’s rally, the Dow is down 4.81% for the year. The S&P and Nasdaq are down 14.39% and 26.70%, respectively.

All 11 S&P sectors finished the month positive, led by materials. The sector gained 11.50% for its best monthly performance since November 2020. Consumer discretionary was the laggard, eking out a slight gain of 0.65%.

— Samantha Subin

These are some of the stocks making the biggest moves during after-hours trading,

Costco Wholesale — The retail stock ticked 3.2% lower after posting November net sales of $19.17 billion, a 5.7% year-over-year increase. E-commerce sales fell 10.1% during the period.

Okta —Okta’s stock gained 13.6% after the company exceeded Wall Street’s expectations on the top and bottom lines. The identity management software provider also posted better-than-expected guidance for the fourth quarter.

Five Below — Five Below’s stock jumped 8.9% after upping its forecast and beating estimates.

Read the full list of stocks moving after hours here.

— Samantha Subin

Snowflake’s shares were last down more than 5% in overnight trading after the company shared product revenue guidance that fell short of expectations.

Snowflake said it expects product revenue to range between $535 and $540 million in the fourth quarter. Analysts expected an estimate of $553 million, according to StreetAccount.

The cloud data provider posted a beat on the top and bottom lines, with revenue increasing 67% on a year-over-year basis.

— Samantha Subin

Shares of the software stock slumped 6.5% in overnight trading after announcing that co-CEO Bret Taylor will step down. The departure leaves Marc Benioff alone as the sole CEO of the company.

The decline in shares came despite a beat on the top and bottom lines in the recent quarter. Salesforce shared earnings of $1.40 a share on $7.84 billion in revenue, topping expectations of earnings of $1.21 a share on revenues of $7.82 billion.

Earnings per share guidance for the fourth quarter came in above estimates.

— Samantha Subin

Stock futures opened slightly higher on Wednesday.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 13 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.25% and 0.21%, respectively.

— Samantha Subin