The race for the White House, control of the House of Representatives, and determination over abortion law in Nebraska will be heavily dependent on the critical congressional district dominated by Omaha, the Cornhusker State’s most populous city. Here is how the three battles will intertwine on Nov. 5.

Presidential race

Nebraska is one of two states that award its electoral votes based on congressional districts, the other state being Maine. The state’s 1st and 3rd districts, along with the two at-large electoral votes, are widely considered safely Republican, but the 2nd District has been seen as a true swing district that could tip the election.

Republicans have largely won all of Nebraska, including the 2nd District, in recent elections, but in 2008 and 2020, the district went for Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, respectively. The 2nd District has an “even” partisan voting index, according to the Cook Political Report, and is rated as “lean Democrat” in the presidential race.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are engaged in a tight race nationally, and the district’s vote in November could plunge the presidential race into chaos under the right circumstances.

If Trump wins the swing states in the Sun Belt: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, but Harris wins the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, then the swing Nebraska district could be the difference between a Harris win and a tie in the Electoral College.

Another scenario, in which Trump wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada while Harris wins Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, could see the district be the tipping point between a Trump win and a tie in the Electoral College.

If there is a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives would vote for the president, and the Senate would vote for the vice president. In the House vote, each state delegation would get one vote, meaning Trump would likely win due to Republicans appearing unlikely to lose their advantage with state delegations in the lower chamber of Congress.

Neither Trump nor Harris has visited the swing Nebraska district since being formally nominated, but their respective running mates, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), have campaigned there in August.

Harris holds a lead in the district in recent polls, with a SurveyUSA-Split Ticket survey from late last month showing her leading Trump 47%-42%.

House race

The race between incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas is a rematch of the 2022 election in the Cornhusker State’s 2nd District, and it is again expected to be tight.

Bacon was first elected to the seat in 2016, unseating a Democratic incumbent at the time, and has faced tight elections in each subsequent election. Despite a “blue wave” year in 2018 and Biden winning the district in the presidential election in 2020, Bacon survived both years and won a fourth term in 2022 by fewer than 6,000 votes.

Vargas is trying to unseat Bacon after being unsuccessful in 2022. He becomes the second candidate to try and beat Bacon on a second try after Democrat Kara Eastman failed to oust Bacon in both 2018 and 2020. Rematches in House races tend to have mixed results in recent years, and Vargas joins several other 2022 losers who are trying again in 2024.

The race is considered a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report, which recently shifted the rating from “lean Republican.” The outlet cited Harris’s advantage over Trump in the presidential contest in the district’s polls as reason for listing it as a toss-up.

Recent polls for the contest have been a mixed bag, with the SurveyUSA-Split Ticket poll from August showing Vargas leading Bacon 46%-40%, while a Remington Research Group poll, also conducted last month, showed Bacon leading Vargas 46%-44%.

Dueling abortion measures

Both of the two key races for political office in the district will play into the battle between two dueling abortion ballot initiatives.

In several states across the country, abortion will be on the ballot, with various measures asking if voters would support enshrining abortion through viability — with exceptions that some activists argue are loose. Nebraska voters will consider a ballot measure using that language, but unlike those other states, voters will also consider a measure that would enshrine the state’s 12-week abortion ban that provides exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.

The state has said that if both measures receive a majority, the threshold required to pass a ballot measure in the state, then the initiative with more votes would go into law.

Abortion has been a key issue for Democrats, especially since the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade and returned abortion lawmaking back to the states. Democrats have consistently seen wins on abortion, even in heavily Republican states, but this is the first time since Dobbs that two competing abortion measures will share the ballot statewide.

Harris and Vargas have both made abortion a big part of their campaigns, with Vargas calling to “codify the protections earned from the Roe v. Wade decision into federal law.” During her debate against Trump, Harris was asked if she would support any restrictions on abortion, but she did not directly answer the question.

Trump has deferred on most abortion questions, calling it a state issue, but he did say that as a Florida voter, he would be voting against Amendment 4 in the Sunshine State, which says it would enshrine abortion through viability.

Bacon does not tout abortion as one of the key issues on his campaign site, but he does tout his endorsements from the Nebraska Right to Life and his “A” rating from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. Both of those groups have endorsed the ballot measure seeking to enshrine the 12-week abortion ban.

The 12-week ban is polling ahead of the measure allowing abortion through viability, with the SurveyUSA-Split Ticket poll showing the initiative through viability winning 45%-35% and the 12-week ban winning 56%-29%.

Abortion, a less significant issue in 2020, is expected to have a significant effect in 2024, but whether Nebraska’s 2nd District helps break the streak of GOP losses tied to the matter will be seen on Nov. 5.