Unlimited U.S. aid won’t halt China’s Taiwan plunder.
The Myth of U.S. Aid to Ukraine Deterring China from Invading Taiwan
American neocons have long argued that providing U.S. aid to Ukraine is crucial in preventing China from invading Taiwan. But is there any evidence to support this claim?
Recently, Pentagon and State Department officials testified before the House Armed Services Committee, discussing U.S. relations with Taiwan and the potential impact of cutting aid to Ukraine. The conversation inevitably touched on America’s involvement in the Eastern European proxy war.
During the hearing, Rep. Bill Keating asked Mira Resnick, the deputy assistant secretary of state for regional security, about the potential consequences of cutting aid to Ukraine. Resnick echoed the neocon talking point that reducing aid would embolden China to act against Taiwan.
“Demonstrating our resolve with respect to Ukraine is the best way to deter [China],” Resnick stated. “Abandoning our partners encourages [China] to conclude that we will fail to provide for Taiwan’s sufficient self-defense. That is exactly the wrong message to be sending.”
[READ:[READ:28 Republicans Reject Biden Administration’s Demands To Fund Indefinite Proxy War In Ukraine]
Resnick is not alone in this belief. In a recent commentary, Seth Jones from the Center for Strategic and International Studies expressed similar sentiments, arguing that every dollar spent on Ukraine is not a waste but a way to strengthen deterrence in Asia and reassure U.S. allies.
China Plows Ahead
However, there is a glaring problem with these assertions: China’s aggression towards Taiwan has only increased despite the billions of dollars poured into Ukraine by the U.S.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, over $113 billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars were committed to Ukraine in 2022 after Russia’s invasion. Yet, China sent a record number of military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, demonstrating a clear escalation.
Last year, China conducted live-fire military exercises near Taiwan and regularly violated the buffer zone in the Taiwan Strait. These hostile activities have continued into 2023, with a recent record-breaking deployment of military aircraft towards Taiwan.
If U.S. aid to Ukraine was truly deterring China, why has China’s behavior towards Taiwan worsened?
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not improved China’s intentions towards Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party has consistently viewed Taiwan as a Chinese province and has made it clear that they intend to take control, by force if necessary.
Contrary to neocon claims, there is no evidence to suggest that U.S. aid to Ukraine has deterred China’s regional and global ambitions. In fact, it may have inadvertently strengthened the alliance between Russia and China.
Only with strong U.S. leadership can China be put on notice. Until then, Taiwan should expect continued hostility from its communist neighbors.
Is U.S. aid to Ukraine effective in deterring Russia’s aggression, and if so, why would it not have the same effect on deterring Chinese aggression towards Taiwan
Administration’s Funding Request for Ukraine](https://thefederalist.com/2023/09/21/republicans-say-no-to-funding-indefinite-war-in-ukraine/)
However, there is no substantive evidence to support the claim that U.S. aid to Ukraine serves as a deterrent against Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. In fact, the argument appears to be a convenient justification for the continuation of military assistance to Ukraine.
It is important to note that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is a regional issue primarily concerning territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions. The involvement of China in this equation is not supported by any concrete evidence or logical reasoning.
The United States has been involved in providing aid to Ukraine since the start of the conflict in 2014. Despite this aid, Russia has continued its aggressive actions in Eastern Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea. If U.S. aid to Ukraine was effective in deterring China, one would expect similar success in deterring Russia’s aggression.
Furthermore, the notion that China would be deterred from invading Taiwan solely due to U.S. aid to Ukraine oversimplifies the complex dynamics of international relations. China’s decision-making process is influenced by a multitude of factors, including its own strategic interests, regional stability, and global power dynamics. U.S. aid to Ukraine is unlikely to be the decisive factor in deterring Chinese aggression.
The focus on U.S. aid to Ukraine as a deterrent against China also neglects the significant military capabilities that Taiwan possesses. Taiwan has invested heavily in its own defense, including advanced weaponry and military capabilities. Taiwan’s capability to defend itself is not solely dependent on U.S. aid or assistance.
While it is important for the United States to support its allies and promote stability in the region, it is essential to base policy decisions on evidence and strategic considerations rather than unsubstantiated claims. The argument that U.S. aid to Ukraine deters China from invading Taiwan appears to be unsupported by factual evidence and lacks a comprehensive understanding of international relations.
Instead of relying on vague arguments, it would be more productive for policymakers to focus on diplomatic efforts, dialogue, and regional cooperation to address security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region. By actively engaging with all stakeholders, including China and Taiwan, the United States can play a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability in the region.
In conclusion, the belief that U.S. aid to Ukraine deters China from invading Taiwan lacks substantial evidence. The argument appears to be a rhetorical tool used to justify continued military assistance to Ukraine, rather than a strategic analysis based on concrete facts. Policymakers should prioritize evidence-based decision making and focus on diplomatic initiatives to address regional security concerns.
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