Early Election Count Sees Finland’s Right-wing NCP Narrowly Leading PM Marin

Public broadcaster Yle has projected that Finland’s opposition right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP) is on track to win Sunday’s parliamentary election in a tight three-way race with 71% of votes counted. The NCP is expected to secure 48 out of 200 parliamentary seats, with the nationalist Finns Party coming in second place with 46 seats, and Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats in third place with 43 seats.

Petteri Orpo, the leader of the NCP, stated that the results were an endorsement of the party’s policies. He added, “My thought is that those are really heavy numbers on the screen… a strong mandate for our politics.”

The leader of the largest group in parliament has the first chance to form a majority coalition, which means Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s time in office might come to a close. Though considered a millennial role model for progressive new leaders worldwide, Marin has faced criticism at home for her partying and her government’s public spending.

For almost two years, the NCP has led the polls, but its advantage has dwindled in recent months. The party has promised to reduce spending and curb the public debt, which has reached just over 70% of GDP since Marin took office in 2019.

Orpo accused Marin of eroding Finland’s economic resilience as Russia’s war in Ukraine has hit the country hard and the cost of living has increased. Orpo stated that he would negotiate with all groups to secure the majority in parliament, while Marin has said that her party may govern with the NCP, but not with the Finns Party.

During the January debate, Marin labeled the Finns Party as “openly racist,” a statement the nationalist group refuted. Its main motive is to reduce what its leader, Riikka Purra, has called the “harmful” immigration from developing countries outside the European Union. The party also advocates for austerity policies to reduce deficit spending, which aligns with the NCP’s stance.

(Reporting by Anne Kauranen, Essi Lehto, Terje Solsvik, and Attila Cser in Helsinki; Editing by Justyna Pawlak, Frances Kerry, Philippa Fletcher, David Holmes, and Andrew Heavens)