Editor Daily Rundown: EXCLUSIVE: Early Analysis Of June Jobs Numbers From EJ Antoni

Vince CoglianeseAugust 5, 2022

JUNE DELIVERS DECENT JOBS REPORT, WHICH MEANS THE FED IS GOING TO TRY HARDER TO DESTROY THOSE JOBS TO FIGHT INFLATION… CNBC HEADLINE AT 9:06 AM… Dow futures slide 200 points after strong jobs report likely to keep Fed in hiking mode

Stock futures fell Friday after the July jobs report was much better than expected, showing a strong labor market that will likely mean more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 222 points or 0.68%. S&P 500 futures lost 1.05% and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 1.43%.

The labor market added 528,000 jobs in July, easily beating a Dow Jones estimate of a 258,000 increase. The unemployment rate also ticked down to 3.5%, below the 3.6% estimate. Wage growth also ticked up more than estimated, up 0.5% for the month and 5.2% higher than a year ago, signaling that high inflation is likely still a problem.

FLASHBACK… JUNE 13… WSJ: Higher Unemployment Rate Looms as the Fed Fights Inflation

Federal Reserve officials are beginning to signal that higher unemployment rates might be a necessary consequence of their efforts to damp inflation by raising interest rates.

This marks a reversal from last year, when their policies provided strong economic stimulus aimed at spurring the labor market’s recovery from the pandemic’s damaging effects. […]

“There will be bumps along the road,” said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester in a speech earlier this month.

“The unemployment rate could temporarily move above estimates of its longer-run level,” she said. “This will be painful, but so is high inflation.”

DAILY RUNDOWN EXCLUSIVE… EARLY ANALYSIS OF JUNE JOBS NUMBERS FROM EJ ANTONI…

Despite a blockbuster headline number, the labor market data continues to be a mixed bag. The labor force participation rate fell yet again in July, artificially pushing the unemployment number down. The household survey added 179k jobs, vs. the 528k added in the establishment survey. Employment according to the household survey peaked in March and still has not returned to that level, let alone pre-pandemic levels. Multiple job holders also rose by almost 100k and despite strong nominal wage growth, inflation is running even hotter, meaning people are working more for less in terms of real goods and services. Lastly, another key factor behind the divergence between the household and establishment survey is the number of unincorporated self-employed workers, which fell 279k in July. There seems to be a trend of people leaving self-employment, which is not captured by the household survey, and working for other businesses, which is captured by the establishment survey. Multiple job holders are also double counted in the establishment survey. Adjusting for these two factors, the number of jobs added might be closer to 150k, not half a million. The labor market definitely has considerable chinks in its armor and is not nearly as robust as the headlines would have us believe.

OBAMA ECONOMIST JASON FURMAN: I am baffled by the decline in labor force participation. Peaked at 62.4% in March & has fallen nearly continuously since–despite tons of job openings, lots of jobs added, dwindling cash balances, mostly improving COVID, recession talk scaring people into accepting jobs, etc. (GRAPH)

BLACK MALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION DROPS… BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT GOES UP… DANIEL ZHAO, GLASSDOOR: The decline in labor force participation was notably large for Black men, age 20+ where the labor force participation rate has plummeted from 68.9 percent in May to 67.3 percent in July

Similarly, the Black unemployment rate rose to 6 percent in July, while the unemployment rate dropped for white, Hispanic or Latino, and Asian workers. Not a trend you want to see start now if the labor market is headed for a slowdown.

EMPLOYMENT AMONG WOMEN WENT UP… BUT MEN WENT DOWN… “If you look at just the employment numbers… you can see women driving a lot of that June to July trend there — 349,000 more people employed on the women’s side of things,” @bcheungz says on nonfarm payroll growth. “Men, however, actually contracting by about 170,000.” (VIDEO)

BREAKING OVERNIGHT: SINEMA NOW ONBOARD WITH TAX & SPENDING PACKAGE… SHE FOUGHT TO PRESERVE REVILED CARRIED INTEREST LOOPHOLE… WSJ: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema Wins Tax Changes to Democrats’ Climate Bill

WASHINGTON—Democrats revised their climate and healthcare package, striking a deal with centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D., Ariz.) to scale back some tax provisions in the plan and add in a new tax on stock buybacks to try to win her support.

In a brief statement Thursday night, Ms. Sinema said she would move forward with the legislation after a review of its provisions by the Senate’s nonpartisan parliamentarian. While Ms. Sinema didn’t outright back the plan, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said in his own statement that he believed the changes would keep the bill on track in the 50-50 Senate, in the face of united Republican opposition.

“I am pleased to report that we have reached an agreement on the Inflation Reduction Act that I believe will receive the support of the entire Senate Democratic conference,” Mr. Schumer said.

Under the changes negotiated with Ms. Sinema, Democrats will pare back elements of a 15% minimum tax on large, profitable corporations and drop a proposed tax increase on carried-interest income, according to people familiar with the agreement. Democrats will add a 1% tax on stock buybacks to the legislation, as the party aims to still reduce the deficit by about $300 billion in the legislation, according to these people.

REPUBLICANS HAMMER FBI’S WRAY… ‘Identify Patriotic Americans As Suspects’: Sen. Ted Cruz Confronts Wray On Project Veritas Leak (VIDEO)

Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz confronted FBI Director Christopher Wray about a leak of alleged FBI material by the conservative activist group, Project Veritas, at the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Thursday.

Cruz tried to make the case that the FBI has a repeated pattern of targeting conservatives and “patriotic Americans.” He pointed to a copy of FBI training material obtained by Project Veritas that allegedly listed the Betsy Ross, Gadsden and Gonzales Battle flags as themes “indicative of militia violent extremism.”

“Director Wray, what are you all doing?” Cruz asked. “This makes no sense. Do you agree with this FBI guidance that the Betsy Ross flag and the Gadsden flag and the Gonzales Battle flag are signs of militia violent extremism?”

“Senator, I am not familiar with the document behind you and I’m not in the practice of trying to comment on a document that I haven’t recognized. But, I will tell you that when we put out intelligence products, including ones that reference symbols which we do across a wide variety of context, we usually make great pains to put caveats and warnings in the document that make clear that a symbol alone is not considered evidence of violent extremism.”

FBI OFFICIAL WENT FROM OVERSEEING WHITMER ‘FEDNAPPING’ TO OVERSEEING DC JAN 6 CASES… FBI Director Admits Agent Whose Office Ran Botched Whitmer Kidnapping Case Got A Promotion (VIDEO)

FBI Director Christopher Wray indicated that an agent who headed the agency’s Detroit Field Office when FBI operatives allegedly entrapped people into planning to kidnap Michigan’s governor is currently in charge of the D.C. Field Office.

“[Steven M.] D’Antuono was the special agent in charge of the … Detroit field office and is now the assistant director in charge of the Washington field office,” Wray clarified to Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz during his Thursday Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. Cruz called the move “astonishing.”

A judge acquitted two men and declared a mistrial for two others in April after their October 2020 arrests for allegedly plotting to kidnap Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, with their defense contending the FBI conceived and encouraged them into the plot. D’Antuono took charge of the FBI’s Detroit Field Office in 2019 and was announced as the D.C. Field Office’s leader just days after the arrests.

FLASHBACK… MARCH 8… NYT REPORTER: ‘THERE WERE A TON OF FBI INFORMANTS’ IN JAN 6 CROWD… Hidden Video Captures NYT Reporter Calling Coverage About Jan 6 ‘Overblown.’ Fake Trauma, Fake News, Full ‘Of FBI Informants’ (VIDEO)

REAL NY TIMES HEADLINE… NYT: G.O.P. Governors Cause Havoc by Busing Migrants to East Coast

A political tactic by the governors of Texas and Arizona to offload the problems caused by record levels of migration at the border is beginning to hit home in Washington, as hundreds of undocumented migrants arriving on the governors’ free bus rides each week increasingly tax the capital’s ability to provide emergency food and housing.

With no money and no family to receive them, the migrants are overwhelming immigrant nonprofits and other volunteer groups, with many ending up in homeless shelters or on park benches. Five buses arrived on a recent day, spilling young men and families with nowhere to go into the streets near the Capitol.

Since April, Texas has delivered more than 6,200 migrants to the nation’s capital, with Arizona dispatching an additional 1,000 since May. The influx has prompted Muriel E. Bowser, Washington’s Democratic mayor, to ask the Defense Department to send the National Guard in. The request has infuriated organizations that have been assisting the migrants without any city support.

BETO SAYS PARENTS NEED TO KEEP THEIR STUPID NOSES OUT OF SCHOOLS… RNC: Beto O’Rourke: “We don’t need” parents telling schools they can’t teach critical race theory in classrooms (VIDEO)

WAIT A SEC… LARRY O’CONNOR: Um… In March of 2022… “No, I don’t think it should be taught in our schools,” the former congressman said. (VIDEO)

NEW THIS AM… AP: China halts climate, military ties over Pelosi Taiwan visit

BEIJING (AP) — China on Friday said it is canceling or suspending dialogue with the United States on a range of issues from climate change to military relations and anti-drug efforts in retaliation for a visit this week to Taiwan by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The measures, which come amid cratering relations between Beijing and Washington, are the latest in a promised series of steps intended to punish the U.S. for allowing the visit to the island it claims as its own territory, to be annexed by force if necessary. China on Thursday launched threatening military exercises in six zones just off Taiwan’s coasts that it says will run through Sunday.

WHY HAS BIDEN BEEN TOUGHER ON RUSSIA THAN CHINA? … ‘That’s A Little Bit Insulting’: Kirby Pushes Back Against Doocy Suggesting Biden Is Weak On China (VIDEO)

Doocy asked Kirby, the White House coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, why the president has been tougher on Russia than China at Thursday’s White House press briefing.

“I wouldn’t agree with the premise of your question, Peter,” Kirby began.

“Well, I think when Russia was getting aggressive around Ukraine, the president was out every couple of days telling [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, ‘don’t do it.’ And now China is getting aggressive around Taiwan, and we’re not hearing anything like that from the president,” Doocy replied.

“I beg to differ, we’ve been standing here for almost a week, Peter, talking about our concerns about what China was preparing to do and we put out declassified information that we saw, what the Chinese playbook was gonna be,” Kirby said. “Look, I stood at another podium not long ago and much of the same way we reacted then, we’re reacting now in terms of being honest and transparent about what’s going on and calling it out for what it is and today talking about exactly what we’re going to do to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific. So I’m afraid I just challenge the premise of your question.”

Doocy then asked why the president has no scheduled call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying he has a lot of free time during his isolation. Kirby immediately pushed back.

“He doesn’t have free time. He’s been working all the way through his illness, quite frankly Peter, so that’s a little bit insulting,” he said.

HERE’S HOW BIDEN IS SPENDING HIS TIME… GREG PRICE: Biden: “I want to buy oneof those corvettes that are electric vehicles when they come out but I’m not going to be able to do it because I can’t drive a vehicle while I’m Vice President, while I’m President, any more than when I was Vice President. (VIDEO)

HOW NORTH KOREAN IS THIS APOLOGY VIDEO? … ‘I Apologize’: Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney Regrets Not Committing To Biden For 2024, Gushes Over President (VIDEO)

Democratic New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney walked back Thursday her refusal to say whether she would support President Joe Biden should he run for reelection in 2024.

During a Tuesday debate against fellow Democrat Jerry Nadler, both Nadler and Maloney refused to explicitly endorse Biden.

Maloney said she doesn’t “believe [Biden is] running for reelection.”

Maloney backtracked Thursday while speaking on CNN’s New Day.

“I think we all owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to President Biden,” Maloney said. “He saved the country by running against former President Trump and he defeated him and has done an incredible job as president, passing the Build Back Better – the American Rescue Plan, the infrastructure plan and now the inflation reduction plan, which is based off the Build Back Better. So I think he’s done an incredible job and is giving us a record to run on in the ’22 elections.”

AXIOS TRACKS DEMS DITCHING JOE… AXIOS: Dems dodge on Biden ’24 (THE LIST)

A startling number of lawmakers in President Biden’s own party have been unwilling in recent days to say he should seek re-election in 2024, amid gnawing fears he’ll be too old or unpopular to win.

UPDATE IN ARIZONA… KARI LAKE WINS… Trump-Endorsed Candidate Kari Lake Wins GOP Arizona Gubernatorial Primary

Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake won her state’s primary Thursday in a tight race against opponent Karrin Taylor Robson.

Her victory was delayed due to the race remaining too close to call. Lake garnered 46.8 percent of the vote, while Taylor Robson narrowly tied her with 44 percent, The New York Times reported Thursday night.

Lake prematurely declared victory early Wednesday while addressing a crowd of supporters. She suggested that election officials were delaying the race as they did not want her to win.

ELDER CHENEY CUTS A SPOT FOR HIS DAUGHTER’S STRUGGLING RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN… CNBC: Former Vice President Dick Cheney rips ‘coward’ Trump in election ad for daughter Liz (VIDEO)

Former Vice President Dick Cheney assailed ex-President Donald Trump as a “coward” and a prime threat to the United States in a new campaign ad for his daughter, Rep. Liz Cheney, days before her Republican primary election in Wyoming.

“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who has posed a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” the elder Cheney said in a straight-to-camera ad, which was shared online Thursday afternoon.

“He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him,” said Cheney, 81, who served for eight years as vice president in the George W. Bush administration.

“He is a coward. A real man wouldn’t lie to his supporters,” Cheney said. “He lost his election and he lost big. I know it, he knows it, and deep down, I think most Republicans know it.”

COPE… ‘She’s Going To Lose Soundly’: CNN Panel Melts Down Over Trump’s Primary Endorsement Wins, Looming Cheney Loss (VIDEO)

Members of a CNN panel had a meltdown Thursday over the success of candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump in Tuesday’s Republican primary elections.

“I’m called a RINO every day and I’m the crazy tea party guy,” former Republican Rep. Joe Walsh of Illinois said. “Every word Dick Cheney said in that ad is spot on. But here is the deal. Liz Cheney is going to lose in a couple of weeks and she’s going to lose soundly.” […]

“It was only 15 years ago that Cheney was considered the conservative end of the GOP,” CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein said. “Democrats called him Voldemort, right. And now because he ascribes to a vision of conservatism, on strong government and strong national defense as opposed to this sense of grievance about being displaced in a changing and diversifying country, he’s kind of, you know, on the outs in this – in this party.”

WITH ZERO DEATHS IN U.S., MONKEYPOX IS NOW OFFICIALLY AN EMERGENCY… WAPO: Monkeypox is

‘a public health emergency,’ U.S. health secretary declares

WHO officials last week advised men who have sex with men to temporarily reduce their number of sexual partners in an attempt to reduce transmission.

While health officials have stressed that monkeypox poses far fewer risks than coronavirus — with just a handful of deaths globally and none to date in the United States — the virus can lead to fever, swollen lymph nodes, rash and often painful lesions that can last for weeks and result in scarring.

LEFTISTS STUGGLE WITH HOW TO TELL GAY MEN TO AVOID ORGYS… ONE HERO IS LIMITING SEX TO ONLY HIS HUSBAND & HIS BOYFRIEND… WAPO: As monkeypox strikes gay men, officials debate warnings to limit partners

As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention weighs whether to recommend limiting sex partners, health officials in San Francisco, Chicago, New York and other U.S. cities battling surgesdisproportionately sickening gay men are avoiding calls for sexual restraint, wary of further stigmatizing same-sex intimacy. […]

Many public health officials and activists who spent decades on the front lines of the battle against HIV/AIDS say they have learned it is futile to tell people to have less sex. That stance puts them at odds with the WHO, a top New York epidemiologist who condemned the city’s messaging and others within the gay community who say gay men deserve direct warnings before it is too late to end the outbreak.

“It was devaluing gay men’s lives and health not to warn gay men,” said Dan Savage, a sex columnist who has criticized the public health response to monkeypox. “Now, here we are, really on the verge of monkeypox being endemic in gay communities all over the world, and how is that for stigma?”

Savage, who is no prude as a proponent of non-monogamous relationships and exploring fetishes, said public health officials should have advised gay men to curb their sex lives at the start of the outbreak in May that experts suspect was supercharged by large festivals in Europe with rampant sexual activity.

Savage is taking his own advice, limiting sex to his husband and his boyfriend and skipping San Francisco’s Dore Alley festival this year.

DOCS SUE GOV’T FOR COVID CENSORSHIP… OUTKICK: DOCTORS, SCIENTISTS SUE GOVERNMENT FOR CENSORING SPEECH DURING COVID PANDEMIC

[S]everal prominent experts are joining the fight against government imposed censorship by signing on to a lawsuit against President Biden and other government figures, which alleges that the administration violated the First Amendment:

“Public statements, emails, and recent publicly released documents establish that the President of the United States and other senior officials in the Biden Administration violated the First Amendment by directing social-media companies to censor viewpoints that conflict with the government’s messaging on Covid-19.”

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Dr. Martin Kuldorff, Dr. Aaron Kheritay and others in the New Civil Liberties Alliance have all joined the State of Missouri ex rel. Schmitt, et al. v. Joseph R. Biden, Jr., et al. suit, which seeks to address this alleged unconstitutional collusion.

2 KILLED BY MASSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKE IN FRONT OF WHITE HOUSE… ABC7: 4 injured in apparent lightning strike at Lafayette Park: DC Fire (VIDEO)

WASHINGTON, D.C. (7News) — Four people are hospitalized with life-threatening injuries after being struck by lightning in Lafayette Park across from The White House Thursday evening.

7News has learned Friday that two of the people perished: a 76-year-old man and a 75-year-old woman from Wisconsin.

D.C. Fire and EMS officials said there were two men and two women who were treated and taken to the hospital, though they did not give an update on their condition during a press conference later in the evening.

VIDEO SHOWS RAPID-FIRE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN FRONT OF WHITE HOUSE… LINDSAY WATTS POSTS… (VIDEO)