Internal polling conducted during the first week of October found Fischer leading Osborn 48% to 42%, giving the GOP incumbent a 6-point advantage just one month ahead of Election Day, according to a polling memo obtained by the Washington Examiner. Another 10% remain undecided or unsure. 

The poll also found former President Donald Trump with a 20-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the Cornhusker State, which Fischer’s campaign said will become an advantage for the Republican senator as she has been endorsed by the former president. 

Fischer’s campaign also expressed confidence that voters would reject Osborn’s campaign, accusing the independent candidate of being funded by Democratic dark money groups to push a liberal agenda. 

“Nebraskans simply don’t agree with Dan Osborn’s support for amnesty, Social Security for illegal immigrants, extreme abortion, VP Harris’ plan to end the filibuster, or Bernie Sanders,” Derek Oden, campaign manager for Fischer, said in a statement. “We expect this positive trend to continue as time goes on and more Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborn isn’t an independent — he’s a liberal Democrat in disguise.”

The apparent turnaround comes after alarm bells began to ring for Republicans in the reliably red state after the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the Senate race from “solid Republican” to only “likely Republican.” 

That rating shift prompted national Republicans to pour millions of dollars into the race, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee placing a $172,000 coordinated ad buy with Fischer’s campaign last month, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking company. Those ads came in response to accusations that Democrats were looking to prop up Osborn’s campaign. 

“Democrat dark money groups have poured record sums into the Nebraska Senate race,” NRSC Communications Director Mike Berg told the Washington Examiner. “Deb Fischer has the momentum over Bernie Sanders liberal Dan Osborn now that our side is responding in kind on television.” 

Fischer and other Republicans have dubbed Osborn a “Democrat in sheep’s clothing,” something Osborn has sought to shake off by publicly disassociating with Democrats and hard-left figures, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Still, Osborn has privately praised Sanders, a self-described socialist, prompting Republicans to paint the independent with a similar title.

Those accusations only increased after the Washington Examiner reported United Association of Steamfitters and Plumbers Local 464, a Nebraska labor union, told its members they were required to attend a political rally in support of Osborn or face repercussions. That instruction was later amended to say attendance was encouraged rather than mandatory, but the event still raised questions about whether the original mandatory rally could have run afoul of labor laws or the union’s own bylaws.

Fischer first won the seat in 2012 after beating Democrat Bob Kerrey by more than 15 points. She was reelected in 2018 by nearly 20 points.

But some recent polls have suggested the 2024 contest is far narrower, raising eyebrows whether an upset victory by Osborn could be on the horizon. Public polling shows a tight race between the two, with Fischer holding a 43.6% average in the polls compared to Osborn’s 42.1%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Making things more complicated, internal polling for Osborn’s campaign shows the independent ahead, while polling conducted by Fischer indicates the incumbent is leading. There is no Democratic candidate.