Florida Has the Highest Stakes Among the Eight States Where Redistricting Isn’t Finished

Only eight states haven’t redrawn their congressional lines, which will be in place for a decade. With House Republicans needing to net only five seats to win a majority in the 435-member chamber, each seat this redistricting cycle has taken on outsize meaning.

In addition to 44 states that have had to redraw their lines following the 2020 census, six states have low enough populations that they only have a single House member. So, overall, the redistricting process, when completed, will have affected 429 House seats.

Here are the states where redistricting is still underway:

NEW HOUSE MAPS NOT THE ELECTORAL BONANZA MANY REPUBLICANS EXPECTED

Florida
Despite Republican control of both chambers of the state Legislature and the governor’s office, Florida’s redistricting process has been held up by an internal Republican debate over what the congressional map should look like. Florida gained a House seat after the 2020 census due to strong population growth, bringing its total to 28.

In January, the state Senate approved a map in a bipartisan 31-4 vote. But then, Gov. Ron DeSantis began to push for more aggressive redistricting. DeSantis put forth a proposal that could move the Republican advantage in the state’s congressional delegation from 16–11 to 20–8, according to Dave Wasserman, a national elections analyst for Cook Political Report.

DeSantis also put forward another map proposal this past week. State Republicans are currently in talks over which direction to move in.

Louisiana
The two chambers of the Republican-controlled state Legislature are currently negotiating with each other to reconcile two different maps. The Louisiana Senate passed a congressional map on Feb. 7, and the Louisiana House passed a map on Feb. 10. Both maps appear to preserve the current Republican-led 5–1 congressional delegation but have some differences over how the lines are drawn. The most recent census did not change Louisiana’s congressional seat count.

Once negotiations are finished, the Legislature will send a map to Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards. It is unclear if he will attempt to veto the legislation, but Republicans have a veto-proof majority in the Senate. Republicans are just shy of a veto-proof majority in the state House but secured enough votes to override a veto when they passed the new congressional map two weeks ago.

Missouri
Republicans have complete control of the redistricting process in Missouri but have faced internal disagreements over the maps. The Missouri House passed a map last month that analysts believe is similar to the current map in which Republicans control the majority of the congressional delegation 6–2. The state retained its current number of seats following the most recent census.

Some Republicans in the state Senate pushed back on that plan and pushed for more aggressive redistricting. On Feb. 8, the Senate was unsuccessful in passing a map that could increase the advantage in the state to 7–1. As a result, state lawmakers are still negotiating on a compromise map.

New Hampshire
Republicans have control of both chambers of the New Hampshire Legislature and the governor’s office, but the party has faced internal divisions over redistricting. The state has two congressional seats held by two Democrats. Its seat count remained unchanged by the latest census.

The state House passed a map on Jan. 5 that shifted both districts from being competitive for both parties to the 1st Congressional District leaning Republican and the 2nd District leaning heavily Democratic, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight. State Republicans’ goal is to make it more difficult for Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas to hold the House seat he won in 2018. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu expressed concerns about that map and asked the state Senate to put forth a different proposal. State lawmakers are still deliberating over the matter.

NORTH CAROLINA ASSEMBLY APPROVES REVISED MAPS AFTER COURT ORDER

North Carolina
Both chambers of the Republican-controlled Legislature passed congressional maps last November. With North Carolina having gained a seat following the 2020 census, the redistricting plan would have increased Republicans’ 8-5 congressional seat majority to an 11-3 majority, according to Wasserman. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper did not have the power to veto the bill, but the state Supreme Court struck the bill down in February, arguing it was unconstitutional and contained “partisan gerrymandering.”

The Democratic-led court ordered the Legislature to produce a new map by Feb. 18. State lawmakers approved a new paper the day before the deadline. The map could shift the Republican congressional majority to 10–4, according to Wasserman.

Ohio
Republicans maintain total political power in Ohio, with control of both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s office. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine signed new maps into law last November. The maps would likely shift the Republican advantage in Ohio’s congressional delegation from 12–4 to 12-3. Ohio lost a seat following the latest census. But the state Supreme Court nixed the plan last month.

The court had a majority of Republican justices, but one crossed over, arguing the map violated a provision in the state constitution that curbs partisan gerrymandering. The state House essentially deferred to the Ohio Redistricting Commission to comply with the court’s request to deliver new maps. So far, the commission has not put forth a congressional map that complies with the court’s request.

Pennsylvania
Political control of the redistricting process in Pennsylvania is split, with Republicans controlling both chambers of the Legislature and Democrat Tom Wolf serving as governor. In January, Wolf vetoed a map that the Legislature passed that would have likely turned the state’s 9–9 split to nine seats leaning Republican, five seats leaning Democratic, and three competitive seats, according to FiveThirtyEight. Pennsylvania lost a seat following the latest census.

Following Wolf’s veto, a lower court took over the redistricting process. But then, on Feb. 2, the Democratic-leaning state Supreme Court took over the process, citing the need to finish the new maps expeditiously. The court is currently considering several redistricting proposals, including ones submitted by state Republicans and state Democrats. It began hearing oral arguments in the case on Friday.

Wisconsin
With political power in the state divided between Republicans and Democrats, Wisconsin reached an impasse last November when Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoed a congressional map passed by the Republican-controlled state Legislature. As a result, redistricting was kicked to the state’s Supreme Court, which held hearings in the case last month.

The court’s conservative majority indicated it was interested in making minimal changes to the map, according to WPR. The state will keep its eight congressional seats following the most recent census. Republicans currently have a majority in the state’s congressional delegation 5–3. The map that cleared the Legislature could increase the Republican advantage to 6–2, according to data from FiveThirtyEight.

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So far, Democrats appear to have gained a very slight edge over Republicans in the redistricting process this cycle. But the eight remaining states have the potential to change that. In addition to the eight remaining states, there are also about a dozen states that have significant litigation pending the new congressional map that was passed into law. This includes Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, South Carolina, and Texas. Litigation in those states could set them back in the redistricting process.