The flurry of activity in Trump’s home state, where he resides at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, provides an early litmus test for his second-term agenda. A second special election is taking place Tuesday in the Florida Panhandle between Republican state CFO Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont to replace embattled Trump Attorney General pick Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who never made it into the Cabinet. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not invested in either race but both Weil and Valimont have significant war chests after tapping into progressive rage across the country. Valimont, who lost by 32 percentage points to Gaetz last fall, has raised $6.4 million since January, according to federal campaign finance records and Weil has raised 10 times more money than Fine.

Since recapturing the White House and both chambers of Congress, Republicans have largely been able to implement their agenda, but concerns are emerging as Democrats aim to exploit possible weaknesses that could either reinforce or disrupt the president’s winning streak.  

In recent days, national Republicans have been sending in resources ahead of the election. According to data from media-tracking firm AdImpact, over $5 million has been spent on television ads in the race so far. Despite Weil’s strong fundraising numbers, he has been significantly outspent on TV nearly 4-to-1. Trump himself put out another social media post in support of Fine on Monday, calling him a “tremendous Voice for MAGA.” 

America First Patriot Randy Fine is running to represent the Wonderful People of Florida’s 6th Congressional District! A highly successful, Harvard educated businessman, and greatly respected State Legislator, Randy has been a tremendous Voice for MAGA. In Congress, Randy will be…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 31, 2025

The unexpected competitive nature of the race has already influenced Trump’s Cabinet decisions. Last week, he announced the withdrawal of Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination for U.N. ambassador, citing, in part, a desire to avoid a special election for her seat later this year. The move could signal the White House is concerned about the country’s response to Trump’s first two months in office.

“I think it’s really hard to gauge how the country is feeling and Trump’s approval rating varies across different polling, so I do think it’s the right move for the White House to proceed with caution,” a GOP operative speaking on the condition of anonymity said.

In their rush to manage expectations on Tuesday, Republicans have placed the blame squarely on Fine, with some questioning his effectiveness as a candidate.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), who leads the campaign arm for House Republicans, told reporters last week that numbers were not looking great, but insisted the seat would not flip.

“He needs to do better,” Hudson said. “But we’re going to win that seat. I would have preferred if our candidate had raised money at a faster rate and gotten on TV quicker. But he’s doing what he needs to do.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis, who used to represent the 6th District in Congress, also placed the blame on Fine, without mentioning him by name, while cautioning against interpreting the race’s potential competitiveness as a reflection of Trump or the broader national political landscape.

“That is not a reflection of President Trump. It is a reflection of the specific candidate running in that race,” DeSantis told reporters last week, who has a strained relationship with Fine since he switched his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 GOP primary. 

In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Fine said he relayed concerns up the chain that Democrats were investing significant resources but said his warnings were not taken seriously. 

“I told Washington months ago — what we’re seeing really is the Democrats were mad. This election isn’t about me. It’s not about a change in the perspective of Donald Trump. Democrats are angry, and Republicans are happy,” Fine said. 

“I think it wasn’t until a week and a half or two weeks ago that folks outside of Florida took it seriously,” he said. 

Floridians who lined up to vote early in person over the weekend appeared to be well aware of how high the stakes are as Republicans are clinging to their House majority by just a few seats. 

“I feel like I must vote for the Republican candidate in order to maintain the House under conservative control, and that’s the only reason,” said Jeremiah Cronin, 66, a registered Republican who works in real estate. “This race is unusual in that, yeah, this could swing the country either way.”

Loyal Republicans in the district continue to applaud Trump’s few months in office, pleased to see the widescale cuts to the federal workforce and his efforts to secure the border. 

Missy Zylka, a member of the Republican executive committee of Volusia County, said she has been pleased with Elon Musk’s work with the Department of Government Efficiency and felt much more reassured of the work they are doing after Musk and members of the DOGE team sat down for an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier.

“It puts it all in perspective, really no one has been fired, they are allowing them to be retired and do the pay outs,” she said. “We had all been hearing stories about specific government workers who had literally started other businesses from their home when they were working for the government from home – how can you do that,” she questioned.

Zylka, clad in a red shirt that said “I’m with The Outlaw & the Hillbilly & The Rocket Scientist,” faulted federal courts that have “interfered with DOGE’s work,” instead of Musk and his team’s role in the rapid terminations of federal workers, many of which have been temporarily halted by the courts.

“The Democratic Party — they went judge hunting and they are paying millions of dollars for this, that’s why things are so disruptive,” Zylka said. 

Fine spoke to a group of volunteers gathered at a restaurant in Ormond Beach on Monday afternoon, reminding them that there are nearly twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats in the district. 

“Our challenge is simple, to get people out there,” Fine said, wearing his signature red MAGA hat. 

“If our side votes, we’re not just going to win, we’re going to win big, and we need to win big because we need to tell all these people that voters are just as committed to Donald Trump today as they were on Nov. 5,” he said.

RANDY FINE RESETS GOP EXPECTATIONS IN TIGHT FLORIDA SPECIAL ELECTION

Democrats see this election as their first chance to fight back against Trump’s second-term agenda, highlighting backlash over mass firings within the federal workforce, tariff policies that could hurt economic growth and spur inflation, and feared cuts to Social Security and entitlement programs. 

“This administration is trying to destroy the infrastructure and everything that makes this nation great — that’s right,” Weil said, speaking to a group of supporters gathered at a coffee shop in Daytona Beach on Saturday. “They’re tearing apart Social Security. They are tearing apart our Veterans Administration. They are coming after Medicare and Medicaid. 

“They do not care that they are impacting and harming Americans. They want to say that they’re America First this, America First that. You cannot fire thousands from the VA system that slows down clinics and pushes veterans’ doctors appointments back four to six months, that’s not America,” Weil said to cheers from the crowd.

The Democratic National Committee invested in the rollout of a voter protection program in this district and in the 1st District where the other special election is taking place, but did not specify the dollar amount for the investment. Over the weekend, Ken Martin, the newly elected chairman of the DNC, made his way to the 6th District to campaign with Weil and bring more national focus to the race. 

Susan Gross, 35, a registered Democrat who lives in Ormond Beach said she’s aware that a Republican loss in the district is unlikely, but believes a close race could indicate early voter pushback against Trump’s second term.

“It seems like more and more people are talking about things that Trump is doing and aren’t happy, even some of my Republican neighbors,” she said. “Although it’s not likely that we’ll flip the district, it’s still exciting to be able to send a message with the hope that we can move the needle.”

Kristy McLarnan, a 35-year-old data engineer who voted for Weil, said the stakes could not be higher for Democrats, who are searching for much-needed momentum after being largely caught flat-footed and divided in their response to Trump since he took office. 

“I think it could lead to the Democrats taking back the House and the Senate and hopefully bringing democracy back to America, but Josh Weil has to win to make that happen,” she said.

In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Weil issued a warning to Fine and other Republicans who have closely aligned themselves with Trump.

“Too many Republicans think that an endorsement from the president guarantees them job security next November,” Weil said. “When my opponent in this race insists on running on one thing and one thing only, and that is that he was endorsed by Donald Trump, and he loses on April 1, that means that every Republican elected who is hiding from their constituents, they are going to have to think long and hard about that, if they want to keep their jobs.”

JOSH WEIL EYES UPSET IN FLORIDA, APPEALING TO SENIORS AND VETERANS ANGRY WITH DOGE CUTS

Special elections with low voter turnout can be unpredictable, and drawing broad conclusions about future races, when turnout will be much higher, can be risky. In recent years, Democrats have performed well in these contests, including a recent Pennsylvania State Senate race, mainly because the voters who consistently participate tend to lean Democratic.

Despite all the national attention and millions of dollars spent, participation in Tuesday’s special election remains low at just 17.5%, despite five weeks of mail-in voting and eight days of early in-person voting. That means 80% of registered voters still have not cast their ballot yet. 

Election data from the six counties within the district indicate that 44.6% of the ballots cast so far came from Republican voters and 40.6% have been submitted by Democrats. In addition, nearly 15% of the ballots have been cast by voters not affiliated with either party.