Floridia Ballot Initiative Would Legalize Second-Trimester Abortions

Florida’s conservatives are facing down a November ballot initiative to enshrine essentially unrestricted abortion in the state constitution. The measure, Amendment 4, is backed by a group that has raised almost $40 million, with more than 85 percent of that coming from donations of $50,000 or more.

Amendment 4 would allow abortion on-demand through the 25th week of pregnancy, which is the point of fetal viability outside the womb, according to the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. More importantly, the amendment would allow abortion at any time with a decision by a “healthcare provider” that an abortion is “necessary to protect the patient’s health.” The measure would also eliminate the requirement of parental consent for a minor to have an abortion, but leave in place the requirement that parents be notified of a minor having an abortion.

If Amendment 4 passes, a Planned Parenthood “health care provider” (a term not defined under Florida law) could determine that an abortion is necessary to protect a woman’s health — even a minor’s health, and potentially her “mental health.” The determination could be based on “protecting” the woman from the normal risks of pregnancy and birth, anxiety over having a child, or the risk of post-partum depression.

That same “health care provider” might then perform the abortion, with no limit on how late in the pregnancy the abortion could be performed. And if the woman were a minor, the law would require only that her parents be notified.

A group called “Floridians Protecting Freedom” sponsored this initiative and collected close to 1 million signatures to get it on the ballot. Backers of the initiative are organizing their ground campaign for November, including recruiting canvassers, distributing yard signs, and continuing to raise funds. They are also ramping up their spending, with more than $500,000 of their $16 million cash on-hand spent in the week ending Aug. 2 alone.

Polling shows a majority of voters backing this amendment, including a majority of Florida Republicans. How could such an extreme pro-abortion amendment make such headway in conservative Florida? A big part of the answer: the failure of the Republican Party of Florida (RFOP) to mount any effective opposition.

In 2022, five of the seven Florida State Supreme Court justices were up for re-election, including pro-abortion justice Jorge Labarga. Labarga is one of the four-to-three majority that greenlit the initiative to be on the ballot. The RPOF did not issue a candidate slate for that judicial election. Labarga, a former Democrat Gov. Charlie Christ appointee, was easily re-elected.

Deceptive Phrasing

A November 2023 poll by the North Florida University shows 62 percent of Florida voters approve of this amendment, including 53 percent of Republicans. This is in contrast to Gallup’s July 2023 survey reporting that 55 percent of Americans oppose legal abortion in the second trimester (which starts at 12 weeks under Florida law) and 70 percent oppose legal abortion in the third trimester.

Are we to believe that Florida Republicans are more extreme on abortion than average Americans? The answer is no. How Amendment 4 frames abortion explains its widespread support. When framed in terms of trimesters, as Gallup does, most people oppose second-trimester and later abortions. When framed in terms of fetal viability (as Amendment 4 does), most people state support for abortions that could be almost as late as the third trimester.

This difference shows both the deceptive genius in crafting the Florida amendment and its Achilles heel: reframe the issue in terms of trimesters and support for the amendment would drop. This amendment could be defeated if voters also realized it would eliminate parental consent for minors to get abortions.

Florida GOP Raises Money to Do Nothing

When the initiative’s backers were using paid, out-of-state solicitors to gather petition signatures, the RPOF did little to educate conservatives about what this amendment would do. The RPOF did not bother to file an amicus brief when the amendment came before the state supreme court.

After the amendment was cleared for the ballot on April 1, the RPOF issued a symbolic resolution opposing it. The RPOF includes a statement opposing Amendment 4 in its statement of opinions on proposed amendments. 

Not effectively fighting this amendment did not keep the RPOF from fundraising off it. On the two-year anniversary of the Dobbs decision, the RPOF sent an email asking for signatures on an “OFFICIAL PETITION” opposing this amendment (all caps courtesy of the RPOF). This legally meaningless petition leads to a fundraising page to “benefit [the] Republican Party of Florida,” with no specific pledge to use the funds to fight Amendment 4.

Florida’s GOP Could Win This Fight

The Florida Republican Party may believe they cannot win this fight, given Ohio’s recent passage of a similar abortion on-demand state constitutional amendment. If so, the party is missing several key points.

This amendment is so radical that most conservatives would oppose it if they knew what it would do. Amending the state constitution requires approval of 60 percent of the voters in Florida, versus 50 percent in Ohio. Florida is 39 percent registered Republican, giving the RPOF a two-to-one advantage over Ohio’s GOP.

The RPOF may be counting on pro-lifers to do nothing if the RPOF fails to effectively fight this amendment. Sadly, they might be right. What would Florida pro-lifers do if the RPOF continues its only symbolic measures against Amendment 4? Vote Democrat? Not likely.

What Could RPOF Do Right Now?

This late in the game, the RPOF would have to leverage all its resources to fight Amendment 4. 

The RPOF could provide a fact sheet about Amendment 4 to each of Florida’s 67 county Republican Executive Committees (RECs) and all chartered Republican clubs in the state with instructions to email and text it to their members. It could pin such a fact sheet on the RPOF’s Facebook page and prominently display it on its website, Instagram, and X pages. The RPOF could also send a series of emails and texts to all the voters in the RPOF’s contact lists outlining just how radical Amendment 4 is.

The Florida GOP could enlist other conservative groups, such as all the Florida chapters of Young Americans for Freedom, in this fight. Another measure is to enlist leaders of conservative religious denominations at the state and regional level to follow the example of the Florida Conference of Catholic Bishops and educate their congregations about Amendment 4.

The RPOF could also provide the RECs and clubs with pamphlets and yard signs against Amendment 4. It could provide funding to the other groups fighting Amendment 4, such as Florida Voters Against Extremism and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. Lastly, it could recast the abortion issue by pointing out that, according to the Centers for Disease Control, black women have an abortion rate nearly four times that of white women.

The RPOF did not reply to requests for comments about the fight against Amendment 4.

Bruce Atkinson is a retired federal employee and registered Republican. He lives in Florida with his wife, three cats, four cattle, and five bee colonies.