Forecasters Tip Series of Swing States Toward GOP as Red Wave is Seen on the Horizon

Two nonpartisan political forecasters shifted multiple House seat ratings in Republicans’ direction on Wednesday, with the party trying to net at least the five seats it needs to win a majority in the 435-member chamber.

Cook Political Report moved Indiana’s 1st Congressional District, currently represented by Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan from “likely D” to “lean D.” Two Nevada House seats held by Democrats, Reps. Steven Horsford and Susie Lee, moved from “lean D” to a “toss up.” Additionally, New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Andy Kim’s seat, moved from “solid D” to a “likely D.” New York’s 19th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Antonio Delgado, moved from “likely D” to “lean D,” and Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, moved from “lean D” to a “toss-up.”

Two open seats also shifted, with New York’s 4th Congressional District changing from a “solid D” to a “likely D” seat and North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District moving from a “likely D” to a “Lean D.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved 11 seats in favor of Republicans, with Arizona’s 4th Congressional District moving from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic”; California’s 26th Congressional District, represented by Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley, shifting from “safe Democratic” to “likely Democratic”; Rep. Sanford Bishop facing a tougher race with Georgia’s 2nd Congressional District moving from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic”; and Illinois’s 13th Congressional District, an open seat, shifting from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.” The political handicapper agreed with Cook’s analysis on shifting Mrvan, Lee, and Delgado’s races.

Four GOP-held seats — Reps. Bill Huizenga, who represents Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District and is running for reelection in the 4th; Richard Hudson, who holds North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District and is running for reelection in the 9th; Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District; and Texas 23rd Congressional District Rep. Tony Gonzales — all shifted from “likely Republican” to “safe Republican.”

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The recent changes come shortly after the release of the most recent campaign finance reports and amid low approval ratings for President Joe Biden, which has the potential to sink down-ballot Democrats.

While Democrats have fared better with the new redistricting maps than expected, pending changes to Florida’s redrawn districts in favor of Republicans are likely to make the process a wash.

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Republicans have expressed confidence in their ability to flip the House this cycle. Historically, the party that holds control of both chambers and the White House has lost seats.