Key Points to Monitor in Texas Runoff Primaries

All eyes are on Texas as voters head to the polls on Tuesday to determine a number of key races that were left unsettled during the state’s primary elections earlier this year.

Texas held its primary elections on March 5, which left a number of key races undecided due to state laws that require candidates to receive more than 50% of the vote or else the top two contenders are forced into a runoff to settle the race.

Most districts in the Lone Star State are considered uncompetitive, meaning primary races often determine which candidate will go on to win the seat in November — raising the stakes for a handful of runoff races.

Here are four things to watch as voters once again head to the polls on Tuesday:

Rep. Tony Gonzales fights for reelection survival

One of the most closely watched primary elections of the entire 2024 cycle is in the Texas district held by Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who is being challenged over his voting record to protect same-sex marriage and to implement stricter gun safety measures.

Gonzales faces a tough challenge from Brandon Herrera, a gun rights activist and hard-right YouTuber, who is challenging the incumbent after he broke with party lines in 2022 to vote in favor of a bill that would strengthen gun safety laws. The runoff election has attracted national attention as many of Gonzales’s colleagues in the House have endorsed his challenger, a move the Texas Republican said won’t go unnoticed.

But Gonzales says he is unconcerned with the challenge, pointing to the state’s primary when the incumbent received 45% of the vote compared to Herrera’s 25%.

“I’m going to dust this guy, no doubt in my mind,” Gonzales said to the Washington Examiner in an interview. “And honestly, I’ve gotten a whole lot stronger for it, too. So I don’t worry about what some of my colleagues up here are doing or not doing.”

But a win for Gonzales may not bring an end to the intraparty dissension that has resulted from his Republican colleagues backing Herrera’s campaign. In fact, Gonzales has hinted at possible retribution for those lawmakers, which includes names such as Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Bob Good (R-VA).

“Here’s the deal: If somebody backs your opponent and goes to your district and does events [and] are giving your opponent money — they are trying to kill you politically. And you better believe them,” Gonzales said. “So your only option is to kill them politically. So I think there’s focus on Tuesday, and then we’re going to do a little purging of ourselves — of our own.”

Cuellar family legacy on the ballot

Aside from the national attention being garnered by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and his 28-count federal indictment possibly threatening his reelection, the fate of the Cuellar family will also be on the line elsewhere on the ballot.

Both Cuellar’s brother and sister will be on the ballot competing in runoff challenges, with Rosie Cuellar competing in the Democratic runoff for state House District 80, which includes the city of Uvalde, Texas, and Martin Cuellar eyeing to be elected as Webb County’s sheriff.

Rosie Cuellar will face off against Cecilia Castellano, a former municipal judge in Laredo, Texas. Castellano narrowly defeated Cuellar during the March primary, when the two were separated by just 20 votes. However, that was before the Justice Department announced its indictment against Henry Cuellar, which could negatively affect Rosie Cuellar’s political chances.

The winner of the primary will go on to face Republican former Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin in November.

Meanwhile, Martin Cuellar will face off against his former employee Wayo Ruiz for the sheriff’s seat. He could face similar struggles like his sister as both have benefitted financially from Henry Cuellar, who has donated to each of their campaigns. Since then, both siblings have faced their own allegations of misconduct, which Henry Cuellar has denounced as being politically motivated.

“My brother Martin and my sister Rosie have served the Laredo community with honor and dignity,” the congressman said. “South Texas voters know my family’s record and will see this for what it is — a partisan political hit job.”

Local lawmakers face wrath of Gov. Abbott and Attorney General Paxton

Further down the ballot, a slate of local lawmakers are facing tough reelection challenges after attracting the ire of both Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, prompting the two state officials to embark on a revenge tour against a group of vulnerable Republicans who have challenged their agendas over the last year.

For his part, Abbott is targeting a group of Republican lawmakers who voted against his signature school voucher program, which would allow the state to give money to families to pay for private schooling. However, the voucher program failed to pass the Texas House due to opposition from Democrats and some rural Republicans.

Meanwhile, Paxton is looking to oust a number of lawmakers who voted to impeach him last year.

The pair targeted a slate of 16 GOP lawmakers by pouring money into their challengers’ campaigns and appearing alongside their opponents on the campaign trail. The effort was successful by defeating nine of the incumbents in March, with the remaining eight locked in runoff elections Tuesday.

House speaker’s race sets tone for future of Texas GOP

One of the most closely watched runoffs stemming from Abbott’s and Paxton’s revenge tour is the seat held by Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, who oversaw the impeachment trial of the attorney general.

Phelan will face former Orange County Republican Party Chairman David Covey, who defeated the speaker during the primary election before the two advanced to a runoff. However, the race could have larger implications for the future of the state’s Republican Party, as a win for Phelan would be a victory for the establishment GOP while Covey could be the catalyst to usher in a new conservative movement to the state.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Phelan has the support of former state House speakers Dennis Bonnen and Joe Straus, as well as former Gov. Rick Perry. However, Covey has managed to secure the endorsements of Paxton, former President Donald Trump, and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, among other high-profile conservatives.