Fukuyama predicts Putin’s era may end soon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Grip on Power Could Be Slipping
According to a prominent international relations theorist and a top analyst of Russia’s security networks, Russian President Vladimir Putin may lose his hold on power within the next few months. Stanford University’s Francis Fukuyama made this prediction during the Aspen Security Forum, stating that he would not be surprised if Putin’s regime comes tumbling down soon.
If this turns out to be true, it could serve as a cautionary tale about the dangers of autocratic rule and the incompetence it can breed in the absence of robust debate. The recent brief and dramatic uprising led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a warlord from the Wagner Group, may not have ended Putin’s reign, but it demonstrated the feasibility of a change in power. Christo Grozev, Bellingcat’s lead Russia investigator, noted that Prigozhin’s actions showed that a change of power is possible, even without support from the security services.
Prigozhin’s march on Moscow was eventually abandoned due to negotiations and an unexpected response from Putin and the FSB. Despite Prigozhin’s statement that he would not challenge presidential power or the internal security services, the FSB declared his uprising an “armed mutiny.” British spy chief Richard Moore also criticized Putin’s handling of the situation, highlighting the fractures within the Russian elite and the weakness it demonstrated.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko played a role in brokering a deal to avoid a major struggle for control of the capital. As a result, Putin allowed Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters to leave the country for Belarus. Prigozhin, once known as “Putin’s chef,” released a video showcasing their new positions in Belarus and promising to turn the Belarusian army into the second-best army in the world.
This development throws domestic politics in Russia into chaos, as it prevents Putin from pursuing his plan to annex Belarus in the 2024 elections. Without a plan B, Putin’s grip on power becomes uncertain. Analysts like Grozev believe that Putin’s rule may not last until the next elections.
Francis Fukuyama, encouraged by Grozev’s analysis, emphasized that autocratic regimes can appear powerful until the moment they collapse. The timing of such a collapse is difficult to predict.
Source: The Washington Examiner
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