The Western Journal

Gamblers Giving Trump 22 Point Advantage Over Harris Just Hours Before Polls Close

The⁣ summary discusses the current betting odds for the‌ upcoming presidential⁣ election⁤ between former President Donald Trump ⁤and Vice President Kamala Harris. ‌As of Tuesday at 2:00⁢ p.m. Eastern Time, several prediction markets ‌show Trump leading with a 61% chance of winning according⁣ to‍ Polymarket, 58% on‍ Kalshi, and ⁣a narrower 52% on PredictIt. The fluctuations in odds ⁤over time highlight the volatility of ⁣the race, with Trump gaining traction throughout October, hitting a peak⁢ of 64.2%‌ on October⁤ 28. However, Harris briefly surged before the odds shifted ‌back in Trump’s favor. The article also mentions​ the chances of both‌ parties gaining control of Congress, with GOP odds at 82% for the Senate and Democrats at‌ 53% for the⁢ House. The ⁣prediction markets ‍have‍ been noted to be​ inaccurate in the⁣ past, indicating that these figures​ should ⁤be viewed​ with caution.


Odds are on former President Donald Trump to be elected president, according to three top sites that allow betting on the election.

The prediction odds are what are used by folks who put up money on the contest and are odds as determined by the sites, not public opinion polls.

After a roller coaster of oddsmaking, as of 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, Polymarket put the odds of a Trump victory at 61 percent, while the odds of Vice President Kamala Harris winning were at 39 percent.

The prediction site Kalshi said the odds of a Trump win are 58 percent, while the chances of a Harris win are at 42 percent.

Over at PredictIt, the oddsmakers were more cautious, with Trump given a 52 percent chance of winning against a 48 percent chance for Harris.

(Don’t know what to look out for on Election Day? Become a Western Journal Member for access to our exclusive Election Guide.)

The odds of who will win the race between Harris and Trump have fluctuated throughout the campaign and have continued to fluctuate throughout Tuesday.

For example, at Kalshi, up until about Oct. 10, Harris and Trump were about even, with the odds of one winning going up a point or so here, down a point or so there.

Trump gained steadily throughout most of October, hitting a high-water mark in the odds market on Oct. 28, when the odds of him winning hit 64.2 percent while Harris bottomed out at 35.8 percent.

Then came a Harris surge that peaked Friday, with the odds of Trump winning going down to 53 percent while Harris was at 47 percent.

On Saturday, however, Trump increased his odds of winning, hitting 56 percent while Harris was at 44 percent, with the odds fluctuating hour by hour as new polls and new sound bites emerged.

Tuesday’s showing by Trump on Polymarket is up from Saturday, when it said there was a 59.4 percent chance of Trump winning the election against a 40.7 chance of Harris winning.

As for control of Congress, Polymarket gave the GOP an 82 percent chance of taking control of the Senate and Democrats a 53 percent chance of taking over the House.

Axios noted that Trump’s dip in the prediction markets late last week could have nothing to do with the outcome of the election.

“It’s possible that Trump’s odds fell over the weekend because more investors were cashing out their bets,” the site wrote.

Axios also noted that prediction markets have been wrong before where Trump was involved, noting that PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning the day before the 2016 election.




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