German SPD set to win Saarland vote-exit poll

FILE PHOTO: Election posters of Anke Rehlinger (L), top candidate for the Social Democratic party SPD and Tobias Hans, top candidate for the Christian Democratic Union party CDU for the upcoming March 27, 2022, election in Germany’s smallest federal state of the Saarland are pictured in Voelklingen near the Saarland’s capital Saarbruecken, Germany March 21, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay

March 27, 2022

By Andreas Rinke and Sarah Marsh

BERLIN (Reuters) -Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) looked set to score a clear victory in a regional election in the small western state of Saarland on Sunday, helping Chancellor Olaf Scholz consolidate his grip on power ahead of other regional votes this year.

The first regional vote since the SPD unexpectedly won the federal election last year – beating the conservatives after 16 years of Angela Merkel in power – looked set to provide another boost to the centre-left party.

An exit poll by Infratest dimap put the SPD at 43% of the vote, up 13 percentage points compared to the last vote, while the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) slumped to 27.5%. The two parties have ruled Saarland in a conservative-led so-called “grand coalition” since 2012.

State elections in Germany are important bellwethers for the public mood. Recent opinion polls have shown the ruling coalition of Scholz’s SPD, environmentalist Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP) cementing its popularity.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted the coalition to promise more military spending and to shift Germany away from energy dependence on Russia, ratings have risen for Scholz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock from the Greens.

Regional elections also help to determine the distribution of votes in the Bundesrat upper house of parliament, although Saarland does not have much weight in the second chamber given it has only around a million inhabitants.

Moreover voters there are especially motivated by local issues such as concerns about high unemployment and the popularity of regional SPD leader Anke Rehlinger.

While Scholz’s coalition has a solid majority in the Bundestag lower house, conservative-led or co-ruled states have 51 of 69 votes in the Bundesrat.

Three of the four states holding elections this year are CDU-led. If the CDU were to lose those votes, that could make it easier for the government to pass legislation.

A more important signpost than the Saarland vote will be the elections on May 15 in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, said Naz Masraff at Eurasia Group.

“A possible change of government (there) from the CDU to the SPD would be critical for Scholz to further consolidate power in his party, and allow larger policy space for the government,” said Masraff.

Currently the CDU premiers of North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein, which is set to hold a state election on May 8, are leading their SPD rivals in polls. Lower Saxony, where the SPD is leading a grand coalition, also votes on Oct. 9.

(Reporting by Andreas Rinke, Sarah Marsh and Emma ThomassonEditing by Jonathan Oatis and Frances Kerry)

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