Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan raise odds of recession as Trump stands firm on tariffs – Washington Examiner
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have increased their forecasts for a possible U.S. recession due to President Trump’s implementation of new tariffs. Goldman sachs raised its prediction to a 45% likelihood of recession within the next year, a significant jump from 35% the previous week. Meanwhile, JP Morgan has placed the odds at 60%, citing the tariffs as a source of economic “turbulence” that coudl drive inflation higher and elevate recession fears. The market has shown signs of strain, with significant drops in major indexes; the Dow fell over 2,200 points recently, and markets in Asia experienced substantial losses. Economists are expressing concerns about a potential stock market collapse reminiscent of the 1987 Black Monday crash.
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan raise odds of recession as Trump stands firm on tariffs
Top investment banks have increased their predictions that the U.S. economy will face a recession following President Donald Trump‘s implementation of his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a recession in the next 12 months to 45%, up from 35% last week. In the span of a month, the investment bank went from a 20% chance of a recession to a nearly 50/50 chance.
J.P. Morgan raised the risk of a recession to 60%.
In its annual report released Monday, J.P. Morgan shared that Trump’s tariffs are causing “turbulence” in the economy.
“The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession,” the report stated. “And even with the recent decline in market values, prices remain relatively high. These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain very cautious. There is much more detail on all of this in section three.”
On Friday, the Dow fell 2,231 points, and the S&P 500 dropped 6%, losing 10% in two days.
WHICH ITEMS WOULD BE AFFECTED BY TRUMP’S PROPOSED TARIFFS ON CANADA AND MEXICO
The Asian markets opened on Monday, hemorrhaging losses. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng dropped 13.22%, and in Taiwan, the Taiex fell 9.7%.
This comes as economists fear that the stock market will collapse in a similar fashion to the Black Monday crash of 1987.
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