GOP Up 4 Points on Generic Ballot – Up 9 Among Age 50+ Demo

Just how do Democrats and Republicans stand in the midterms? Allahpundit wrote last night about fears on the Right that Democrats may have recaptured a little momentum after the Dobbs decision overturned Roe. Aggregation sites show a remarkably stable generic-ballot situation stretching back for months, and even the polls that show Democrats marginally edging Republicans have been doing so all along.

So let’s see something new today — such as this survey from AARP in 56 of the most competitive House districts. The survey was conducted by a partnership between FabrizioWard and Impact Research, a meld between Biden and Trump pollsters routinely used by AARP for its political polling. In these top competitive districts, not only do Republicans fare much better than Democrats, so does Donald Trump over Joe Biden, at least retrospectively:

Today, AARP released the findings of a poll of likely voters from the 56 most competitive congressional districts for 2022. The survey found a generic Republican candidate with 4-point advantage over the generic Democratic candidate and that voters age 50 and over make up over 60% of likely voters in these districts and will likely play a key role in deciding the outcome of the midterm elections. The districts included in the survey are rated either a “toss-up” or “lean Democrat/Republican” by the Cook Political Report. …

The survey indicates that candidates should pay close attention to voters 50+, with a significant majority (80%) saying they are extremely motivated to vote this fall. Voters 50+ are a crucial voting bloc, consistently showing up to the polls and making a key difference in election outcomes. In the 2018 mid-term elections, the 50+ made up about 60% of the electorate and they are poised to make up an even larger share of in 2022, given their greater to motivation to vote than those under 50.

The age-demo point is especially acute, given the outcomes overall and in the demo. Republicans come out as +4 in these battleground districts overall, but +9 among those 50 years of age or older. If they truly are making up 60% of voters that are likely to vote in the midterms, that’s a disaster for Democrats — especially with the sagging enthusiasm seen among younger voter sets for Joe Biden.

Inflation and rising prices are the top concern for likely voters 18+ and 50+. Social Security, retirement savings, Medicare, the cost of prescription drugs and long-term care are also important to both voters 18+ and 50+, but particularly important to older voters, regardless of political party. A significant majority (87%) of voters are more likely to vote for someone who allows Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices, including 84% of Independents and 82% of Republicans. …

37% of voters 50+ approve of the job President Biden is doing compared to the 50% of voters 50+ who, in retrospect, say they approve of the job Trump did while in office.

Emphasis mine; this doesn’t come as much of a surprise, at least in relation to Biden’s standing at 37/61. It matches almost identically to today’s RCP aggregate average job approval rating for Biden, 36.8/57.5, his worst rating yet on this platform. As for Trump’s retrospective job approval rating, it’s worth noting that (a) Biden’s now lower than Trump ever got, but (b) it’s easy to offer a rose-colored-glasses look back at a time before inflation, massive crime waves, and even to a large degree the pandemic. This seems more of a measure of anger directed at Biden than latent support for Trump.

The report itself breaks down the specific findings, with very handy graphics:

In a survey conducted in the 56 most competitive Congressional Districts for 2022, a generic Republican holds a narrow 4-point advantage over the generic Democrat. These districts, which are rated either a Toss-Up or as Lean Democrat/Republican by the Cook Political Report, voted for President Biden by a 6-point margin over former President Trump in 2020.

The generic Republican leads by a wider 49% – 40% margin among voters 50+, and Independents tilt toward the GOP candidate by 7 points. There are 20+ point gender gaps among both men and women overall and among those age 50+, with men voting GOP by a larger margin than women voters are supporting the Democrat.

White voters 50+ favor the generic Republican by 16-points. The race is closer among Hispanic and Asian American voters 50+ who prefer the generic Democrat by 5 & 3-points, respectively. A generic Democrat leads among Black voters 50+ by a 65% – 16% margin.

Unlike other polls, this AARP survey finds issue priorities fairly evenly distributed, both among all voters and those in the 50+ age segment of AARP’s target audience. Combining inflation and the economy, 31% of voters both overall and 50+ have that as their highest priority. However, 12% of overall voters now cite abortion (10% of 50+ voters), ahead of gun issues, immigration, voting rights, and — surprisingly in this survey — Social Security and Medicare issues (5% overall, 7% 50+).

When it comes to how they’ll vote, however, it’s still the economy, stupid:

Everyone but Democrats are prioritizing inflation over abortion, and over the January 6 committee proceedings. On abortion, it’s only close among women, and even then inflation gets more priority for 51% of women — and that number will likely grow as inflation continues and the abortion debate gets more static and legislature-focused. The impact of the January 6 investigation is far less than abortion, with even 40% of Democrats prioritizing inflation over that issue. Among independents and seniors, priorities other than inflation go to the fringe.

And that is very bad news for Democrats, unless inflation suddenly abates. But that window is also closing rapidly. The PPI numbers strongly suggest at least another couple of months of high-rate inflation, and early voting begins in late September in some of these races. The erosion of buying power could take a couple of years to correct even when inflation finally abates. Democrats may be looking at a long season in the political wilderness.

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