The Energy Information Agency’s short-term energy outlook noted that the U.S. will generate 3% more electricity than last year, thanks to “a hot start to the summer.” It expects another 1% increase in 2025 due to growing demand, driven by industry.

Much of the electricity generation comes from solar; the EIA expects a 37% increase in solar power nationally. While natural gas power plants have generated new electricity capacity, it’s been offset by other plants retiring.

The leaders in solar power have been Texas and California, but the pattern is similar nationally: new power projects are predominantly solar and battery storage, which aids solar. 

But as energy demands grow, it creates a problem for PJM, the energy grid to which Pennsylvania belongs and exports its excess power. PJM expects demand to increase significantly by 2040, but the power supply is becoming more intermittent as solar projects dominate the queue to get plugged into the grid. 

The replacement of coal with natural gas, too, has troubled experts who worry about reliability — coal can be stored on-site, whereas natural gas reliability can be threatened by extreme weather, cyberattacks, and other problems.

Pennsylvania legislators are noticing.

“The integrity of the grid and the reliability of the grid is the key factor. There’s no question about that,” said Sen. Gene Yaw, R-Williamsport, who serves as the chairman of the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy Committee.

Yaw has proposed a bill to send state money to modernize natural gas plants in an effort to shore up grid stability. Called the Pennsylvania Baseload Energy Development Fund, it copies a model in Texas advanced in the name of reliability. 

“One thing we hope the fund will produce is … where we are and what’s gone on and the fact that we’re heading toward a cliff,” Yaw said. “That’s where we’re gonna end up unless we do something to take care or resolve that issue.”

The biggest problems facing Pennsylvania and the grid, he argued, was figuring out how to pay for transmission line upgrades and what sources of new energy production will be used.

But figuring it out is hard. PJM has 13 states and the District of Columbia setting different rules and goals.

“We don’t have an energy policy — that’s the overriding problem,” Yaw said. “There’s a hodgepodge of things going on, and this affects PJM. Different states are doing diff things. It’s like PJM is being dealt cards; I’m not sure how they play them.”

One state wants to grow nuclear, another wind and solar, and another wants all green. Deciding whether neighboring states need to pay for transmission lines, or what happens with pollution or reliability problems, isn’t simple.

Yaw said he’s engaged with Gov. Josh Shapiro, but is unsure of the outcome of their conversations.

“I don’t know whether any of it registered or not, he made a lot of notes,” Yaw said. “He’s starting to recognize — I can’t speak for him — but in general there are people in his staff, and I assume he’s the same, that recognize the importance of it and where Pennsylvania stands in the grid.”