Potential 2024 Trump Card: Guilty Verdict Consequences

The guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s hush-money trial in Manhattan has shaken up the 2024 White House race in some ways and failed to move the needle in others. It remains to be seen whether the result will help determine a winner in his expected rematch against President Joe Biden, but the Republican powerhouse is far away from no longer being competitive due to the case.

A New York jury convicted Trump last Thursday on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to allegedly cover up payments in a bid to conceal a tryst with adult film star Stormy Daniels as part of a “catch-and-kill” scheme to influence the 2016 election. Trump, who denied the affair and pleaded not guilty to the charges, said he would be “appealing this scam.” Sentencing is scheduled for July 11.

Within the first several hours of the verdict, GOP online payment processor WinRed temporarily crashed as Trump’s campaign website redirected to a page that sought donations, a sign that supporters were flooding the system. The Trump campaign later boasted $53 million was raised online within the first 24 hours, a large portion of its $141 million haul with the Republican National Committee (RNC) for the month of May. That figure dwarfs the $76 million they raised in April.

It appears wealthy donors are warming up to Trump, and not just those in Republican circles. Shaun Maguire, a partner at venture capital firm Sequoia, announced last week after the verdict that he just gave $300,000 to Trump after backing Hillary Clinton in 2016 and not voting in 2020. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who has supported Democrats in the past, is reportedly leaning toward Trump.

Polls indicate the verdict did little to change public opinion. One from ABC News and Ipsos showed 50% of Americans think the guilty verdict was correct while 49% said they think Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction. However, Trump’s favorability remained fixed at 31% while Biden’s came in at 32%. Morning Consult noted Trump’s polling lead shrunk from 2 points to 1 point after the verdict. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found just one in 10 Republicans were less likely to vote for Trump after the guilty verdict. Trump’s prospective matchup against Biden remains very close.

Three other criminal matters on the state and federal levels hang over Trump as he seeks re-election, prompting the former president to say he is the victim of a politically motivated “witch hunt.” It is not clear whether any of those cases will reach the trial stage before the November election. Still, they are certain to remain at the forefront as Trump’s allies rally behind a message of combating “lawfare.”

House Republicans aim to “fight back” with “everything in our arsenal” against “political retribution in the court system to go after political opponents,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) announced over the weekend. They have a “three-pronged” plan that involves investigations, legislation, and funds. In the Democrat-led Senate, a band of Republican senators have vowed to do what they can to stand in the way of Biden’s agenda — including opposing his political and judicial nominees — to protest the prosecutions against Trump, though their ability to stop forward progress on their own is limited.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), a Republican who has spoken out against Trump during his time in Congress, told a staff writer for The Atlantic that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg “should have settled the case against Trump, as that would have been the normal procedure.” He added, “But he made a political decision. Bragg may have won the battle, for now, but he may have lost the political war. Democrats think they can put out the Trump fire with oxygen. It’s political malpractice.”

Legal experts doubt the 77-year-old Trump will end up being placed behind bars given that he had no criminal record prior to the conviction, though the Secret Service has reportedly coordinated with local jail officials just in case. Possible alternatives to imprisonment include probation or community service. Because the presiding judge in the New York case picked a date for sentencing that falls just days before the Republican convention in Milwaukee, RNC chief told Newsmax this week that officials are preparing for the possibility that Trump will be in jail when he receives the party’s nomination.

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