According to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Harris leads Trump by three points, 47% to 44%. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who remains on the ballot in Iowa after suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump, received 3% in the poll. Other percentages recorded included less than 1% for Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, 1% who would vote for someone else, 3% who aren’t sure who they will vote for, and 2% who preferred not to say who they voted for.

A previous Iowa Poll in September showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris, 47% to 43%.

The new poll, which surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters and included those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., said, “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

The Selzer polls have historically been very accurate. In the 2020 presidential election, it predicted a Republican margin of 7 points in Iowa. Trump won the state over then-candidate Joe Biden by 8 points that year.