Trump is leading 51% to 47% in Michigan and 49% to 47% in Wisconsin, a staggering change in the same poll from mid-September, which showed Harris leading 50% to 45% in Michigan and 48% to 47% in Wisconsin.

The poll also surveyed Pennsylvania and found Harris with a 49% to 47% lead, a three-point improvement for Trump from mid-September in the same poll.

“That was then, this is now,” Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac, said, comparing its last poll to the new one. “The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt.”

A New York Times/Siena College poll in late September gave Harris a 1-point edge in Michigan, another favorable result for Trump when several polls previous polls showed Harris with more decisive leads in the state.

One notable matter the poll surveyed was voters’ feelings about the war in the Middle East. On this topic, Trump leads comfortably in Michigan, 53% to 43%, and by several points in Wisconsin, 51% to 44%. There has been concern, especially in Michigan, that Harris could lose voters based on President Joe Biden’s response to the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

That conflict has also expanded to Lebanon, which has been bombed heavily by Israel in an attempt to cripple the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hezbollah. Harris’s polling with the Middle East could indicate the public in Michigan, which comprises the largest chunk of Muslim voters in the nation, is discontent with the administration.

“The widening threat of a war encompassing the Middle East elbows its way into the long list of issues both candidates would confront the day they are sworn in, with Trump ahead on this issue in Wisconsin and Michigan,” Malloy said.

Trump won Michigan in 2016 by less than a point, 47.50% to 47.27%, and lost it by less than 3 points in 2020, 50.62% to 47.84%.

Trump now leads in RealClearPolitics’s polling average in Michigan, 48.5% to 48%, but still trails 48.7% to 48.2% in Wisconsin.