Harris outperforms Biden and leads Trump nationwide by 4 points: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris is making substantial ground nationwide in ways that President Joe Biden could not when he was still in the race, according to a new poll.

A poll from Marquette University Law School showed Harris is getting 52% of the support of registered voters and that former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48% of those polled. Among likely voters, Harris polled 53%, with Trump at 47%. Results from this statistic include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose between the two.

Harris has seemingly shored up support for the Democratic ticket in a way Biden did not. In a May poll from Marquette, Trump was the choice of 51% of likely voters, and Biden was the pick of 49% of registered voters.

When asked whom they would vote for if Biden stayed in the race, Trump seemingly pulled out victorious, with 43% saying they would have voted for Biden, 47% saying Trump, and 11% saying they did not know.

A large majority of Democrats are satisfied with Harris at the top of the ticket, with 87% saying they were very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee and just 10% expressing dissatisfaction. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats said Biden should have dropped out of the race.

When those polled were asked who they believed would win in November, 58% said Trump would definitely or probably win, and 42% said Harris would definitely or probably win. If Biden remained in the race, confidence in the Democratic ticket fell, with 69% saying Trump would definitely or probably win the election and just 19% saying Biden would win. 

In terms of downballot races, 52% of those polled said they would vote for Democrats in the congressional races, while 48% indicated they would vote for Republicans in congressional races. In the May poll, that was a 50%-to-50% split.

Methodology: The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, by interviewing 879 registered voters nationwide, and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.