Harris puts sunbelt states Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona in play: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to cut into former President Donald Trump‘s previous electoral lead with favorable poll results coming in across four Sun Belt states, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College survey.

Harris leads in previously Republican-leaning Arizona, 50% to 45%, and North Carolina, 49% to 47%, while maintaining a margin-of-error contest with Trump in Georgia and Nevada.

The poll took place Aug. 8 to 15 with 2,670 voters surveyed. The margin-of-error was 4.4 points in every state but North Carolina, which was 4.2. The poll is considered one of the most reliable polls in politics.

Don Levy, Siena College Research Institute’s Director, said “when compared to battleground polls from the New York Times and Siena College from May, Harris has gained an average of over 9 points each across Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.”

“As the two VP candidates, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz, introduce themselves to voters, Vance currently suffers negative favorability in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada, while Walz is less well known but seen positively in three of the four states — negatively only in Georgia,” Levy continued.

Trump leads Harris in Georgia 50% to 46% and leads by a point in Nevada, 48% to 47%.

The recent polling news is little but bad news for Trump, who had largely locked down the four states before Harris joined the race.

One notable cross-tab from the poll is that voters in those states consider Harris too liberal, 43%, than consider Trump too conservative, 33%. Harris also reclaimed some lost support from non-white voters and TikTok users who had deserted President Joe Biden.

Voters agree with at least one point the Trump campaign has continued to blast across the political air waves: Harris flip-flops on the issues as opposed to Trump. Hispanic voters, especially critical in Nevada and Arizona, were 12 points more likely to believe she was likelier to change her positions on the issues.

The poll showed Republicans losing by decent margins in the Arizona and Nevada Senate races while also showing Josh Stein, lead Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson 49 percent to 39 percent, in the state’s governor race.

Trump leads Harris 219 to 208 on RealClearPolitics‘s electoral map, with 111 electoral votes rated as toss-ups. All four of the states in the poll are rated as toss-ups.