Harris, Trump deadlocked in Wisconsin: Poll

(The Center Square) – With 90 days until the General Election, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat, according to the results of a new Wisconsin poll by Marquette Law School.

Harris and Trump are essentially tied in a matchup. Among registered voters, 49% chose Harris and 50% chose Trump; among likely voters, the percentages flip.

However, once third-party candidates were included, Harris held a slight edge over Trump among registered voters. In a multi-way ballot, she leads  45%-43%, with Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at 8%.

All results fall well within the margin of error. The poll surveyed 877 registered voters with a +/- 4.6 margin of error, and 801 likely voters with a +/-4.8 margin of error. 

“Harris, by replacing Biden, has really made up this deficit that had been created with Biden’s problems with the debate,” Marquette Law Poll Director Charles Franklin said. “Democrats had been unenthusiastic about Biden all year. After the debate, a lack of enthusiasm I think turned to near-depression. And when he made that decision, it opened the door to a fresh campaign…without the things that had been weighing down Democrats. So there was a very quick embrace of Harris.”

The ratings are a change from an Emerson College poll in late July, where Harris and Trump were tied in Wisconsin at 47% each. The same poll showed that U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin led challenger Eric Hovde by 6 points, 49% to 43%.

Now, Baldwin has increased her lead to 7 points, with 53% of registered voters choosing Baldwin and 46% choosing Hovde. Among likely voters, Baldwin’s lead narrows, 52% to 47%.

When respondents were allowed to opt out, Baldwin still led Hovde by at least 7 percentage points, but 14% of registered voters and 10% of likely voters said they were undecided.

Despite Harris and Trump polling almost the same numbers, the majority of Wisconsin voters believe Trump has a greater chance at winning the election than Harris, with Trump at 51% and Harris at 38%. 

“So even though the race is incredibly close in terms of people’s voting preferences, the perception that Trump has an advantage going into the fall still remains,” Franklin said.

Among all registered voters, 79% agreed with Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race. An overwhelming majority of Democrat voters polled approved of Harris as the presidential nominee, with 92% in support. 

The most significant change in Marquette Law School poll results since June relates to candidate images, with voters holding more favorable views about Harris’ attributes than they did with Biden, a shift which puts Trump at an overall disadvantage.

Harris leads Trump slightly, 51% to 46%, when the poll asked if the candidates shared the respondent’s values.

Nearly 60% of registered voters think Trump is too old, versus only 12% who think the same of Harris. 

“It flips the script,” Franklin said. “Trump has gone from the not-quite-so-old guy who didn’t have as much of a problem, to now clearly being much more perceived as too old compared to Harris.”

Thirty-seven percent believe Harris has behaved corruptly, versus 62% who believe Trump has – barely any change for the Republican candidate, but 6% lower for the Democrat candidate since June.

While 56% of respondents believe Harris has the right temperament to lead and only 42% believe the same of Trump, Harris trails the former president 50% to 58% when rated on strength of leadership.

Trump also leads Harris 54% to 44% on strong accomplishments. 

In terms of who would better handle the top eight issues facing the country, voters largely favor Trump over Harris for immigration and border security, the economy, and the Israel-Hamas war, with Trump leading Harris by more than 12 percentage points in each category.

Harris holds smaller but still substantial leads over Trump regarding Medicare and Social Security and ensuring election accuracy, and Trump leads Harris by only 3 percentage points in foreign policy.

Voters overwhelmingly favor Harris over Trump on the issues of health care and abortion policy, with Harris leading by 13 and 19 percentage points, respectively.

The partisan makeup of the sample was 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 40% Independent. The survey was conducted July 24 to Aug. 1.