Hispanic and Latino voters may determine Nevada’s outcome in 2024 for Trump or Biden
LAS VEGAS, Nevada: Hispanics Hold the Key to the Election
The core Nevada constituency of Hispanics could be the key for either former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden to winning the battleground state and the general election in November.
As the population of Hispanics and Latinos grows, the group has become a target for Republicans and Democrats within the state and on the national stage.
Shrinking Numbers and Undecided Voters
“Like any culture, there’s gonna be some that are gonna give their vote away like they always do, and that might be decided [now], but that number is shrinking,” Latin Chamber of Commerce Nevada President and CEO Peter Guzman said.
He predicted that many Hispanic and Latino Nevadans won’t be making their voting decision anytime soon, instead holding out to see how the general election plays out and where things stand come Election Day.
This growing and increasingly ideologically split demographic could present a concern for Biden and Democrats, who have long relied on the largely consolidated backing of various minority groups.
Since 2016, when Trump first ran, Hispanic and Latino voters have incrementally moved toward Republican candidates. In 2020, Trump saw strong numbers among Hispanics who do not have college degrees specifically. Of Hispanics without college degrees, 41% opted for Trump, compared to 30% who reported having a degree.
The trend among Hispanic voters is evidence of a larger threat to Biden among working-class minorities. A New York Times/Siena College poll last year showed the president failing to garner a majority of non-college-educated minorities. In the survey, Biden fell short of a majority, with 49% of the group. Trump garnered 33%.
“I think we’ll capture our highest percentage, potentially up to 40% and higher,” Nevada Republican strategist Jeremy Hughes predicted for November.
He said many Hispanics in Nevada are union members, particularly the men, and they are drawn to Trump’s appeals to workers.
As some signal concern for Democrats in the 2024 election, former Democratic Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak expressed confidence that Latino support for Biden isn’t faltering. “I don’t think it’s eroding,” he said. “I think we need to do a better job getting out the message about all the good things that we’ve done, the accomplishments we’ve made, and that’s gonna change people’s lives.”
Asked if Biden was effectively doing this, he said, “I think he’s doing better. We got a lot more to do. A lot more.”
In efforts to ensure they don’t lose ground to Trump with these minority groups, including Latinos and Hispanics, the Nevada State Democratic Party, the Democratic National Committee, and the Biden campaign have launched initiatives to shore up support. “We’ve done six-figure ad buys here targeting Latino, black, and AAPI communities to highlight what’s at stake for voters of color ahead of the 2024 primary,” Nevada State Democratic Party Executive Director Hilary Barrett said.
“We know in Nevada that these communities are crucial to our voter base,” she said. “We make sure that we’re investing in year-round organizing, that we’re talking to these voters early and as often as possible, that we’re hiring folks from within these communities that are the best messengers to help us amplify all the good work that we’re doing for all of our communities, and especially our communities of color.”
However, some of those efforts could prove moot. Guzman said the Latino vote will come down to how the economy is working for them and their children’s education. “It’ll be based on how their wallet looks and education of their children because school choice is becoming a big deal with the Hispanic community,” he said.
As for the economy, which has seen numerous positive indicators under Biden, he said, “They’re hearing that from news agencies, [but] they’re not feeling that right when they go to the gas pump.”
“Gas is still way higher than it was before, and he’s gonna pay a price for that,” Guzman said of Biden.
Biden acknowledged this Sunday at a North Las Vegas campaign event. “We know we have a lot more to do,” he said. “Not everyone is feeling the benefits of our investments in progress yet.”
When it comes to schools, Guzman further detailed mothers being extremely unhappy with COVID-19 shutdowns and the child learning loss associated with them. “That really upset a lot of Latino moms,” Guzman claimed.
Hughes said Hispanic and Latino voters in Nevada won’t be guided by the endorsements of national advocacy groups, pointing to the diversity within the demographic. “I don’t think a Hispanic voter in Nevada really cares what a national group of Democrats say,” he said.
“Nobody cares about that,” he said.
One tool Biden and Democrats have been able to use to energize their voters has been abortion, but Guzman said that this tactic isn’t going to be as effective in Nevada because abortions are legal. It is also a particularly “tricky” matter among Latinos, he said.
Biden’s hope to ramp up his support by painting Trump as a threat to democracy may also fall flat, per Guzman. “It’s all noise,” he said of Trump’s various legal problems and Democrats’ reminders of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. “The numbers here have actually gone up for Trump and across the board,” he said.
As for winning over Hispanics and Latinos on the matters of immigration and border security, it could go either way. Per College Democrats National President Carolyn Salvador Avila, who supports Biden, “We have to take baby steps” on immigration and border security. She told the Washington Examiner she was supportive of Biden’s commitment to sign the Senate’s negotiated bipartisan border deal.
“We’ve got to make sure that we’re making at least some progress,” she said. “So I’m proud of what Biden is trying to get accomplished.”
Additionally, Guzman said Latinos in Nevada “absolutely understand border security, and they do not agree with open borders.”
But, he said, “They’re offput by being called criminals, rapists, and murderers,” in reference to comments from Trump. “That doesn’t go over well.”
He said that if Trump were to avoid rhetoric similar to that and “keep it about border security, crime, and safety,” it would resonate with the community.
In the latest Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll of Nevadans, Trump bested Biden 48% to 40%. Trump lost the state to Biden in 2020 by less than 3 points.
On Tuesday, Trump is expected to sweep nearly all of the Nevada Republican Party’s 26 delegates, as former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley opted against filing for the GOP caucuses.
What criticisms have conservatives raised regarding Biden’s immigration policies and their potential impact on the influx of illegal immigrants?
Utilize to appeal to Hispanic and Latino voters is their immigration policies. Trump’s hardline stance on immigration and his controversial statements about Mexican immigrants have alienated many Hispanics, leading them to support Biden’s more inclusive approach. However, Biden’s immigration policies have also faced criticism from some conservatives who argue that they are too lenient and could lead to an influx of illegal immigrants.
Another factor that could impact the Hispanic vote in Nevada is the ongoing debate over healthcare. Many Hispanics and Latinos in the state lack access to affordable healthcare, and this issue has become even more pressing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden has promised to expand access to healthcare and lower costs, which could resonate with Hispanic voters who are struggling to afford medical care.
In conclusion, the Hispanic vote in Nevada will be crucial in determining the outcome of the upcoming election. Both Trump and Biden are heavily courting this demographic, recognizing its growing influence in the state. The key issues that will sway Hispanic voters include the economy, education, immigration, and healthcare. It remains to be seen which candidate will successfully appeal to this diverse group of voters and secure their support in November.
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