House Democrats target 18 GOP-held districts won by Biden.
Turning 18: A Path to Majority for House Democrats in 2024
When you turn 18, it’s a milestone that signifies adulthood. But for House Democrats in 2024, it means something even more significant – the opportunity to regain the majority after spending two years in the political wilderness.
Democrats have set their sights on the 18 House seats currently held by Republicans, where President Joe Biden would have defeated former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. In contrast, there are only five House seats held by Democrats that Trump won in 2020. Many of these targeted seats are located in California and New York, traditionally blue strongholds where Republicans performed surprisingly well in 2022.
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While House Democrats have other electoral targets beyond these 18 GOP-held seats, winning back the majority they narrowly lost in 2022 starts with these key battlegrounds. Currently, the House balance of power stands at 222-213 in favor of Republicans, making every seat crucial.
Here are the 18 Republican-held House seats that would have favored Biden in 2020, each of which came into existence in January after redistricting:
- Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
- Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
- California’s 13th District
- California’s 22nd Congressional District
- California’s 27th Congressional District
- California’s 40th Congressional District
- California’s 45th Congressional District
- Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
- New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District
- New York’s 1st Congressional District
- New York’s 3rd Congressional District
- New York’s 4th Congressional District
- New York’s 17th Congressional District
- New York’s 19th Congressional District
- New York’s 22nd Congressional District
- Oregon’s 5th Congressional District
- Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District
- Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
In his 2024 reelection bid, Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) faces challenges stemming from scandal fallout and a less-friendly district compared to his early political days as a Tea Party insurgent. Schweikert was reprimanded by the House in July 2020 for various ethical violations. In 2020, he narrowly won reelection in his old, more conservative suburban Phoenix district. However, redistricting has changed the political landscape, and Biden would have defeated Trump in the northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale 1st Congressional District. Schweikert’s Democratic rival, Andrei Cherny, brings an impressive background as the youngest White House speechwriter in history and a former CEO of a sustainability-focused financial services company.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
Democrat Kirsten Engel seeks a rematch against freshman Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in this southeastern Arizona and eastern Tucson-area district. Ciscomani won in 2022, but Democrats are optimistic about their chances due to Biden’s narrow victory over Trump in the district in 2020.
California’s 13th District
Freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) won this farming-heavy, mid-Central Valley district by a slim margin in 2020. Democrats see it as a ripe opportunity for a pickup, especially with increased Latino turnout during a presidential year.
California’s 22nd Congressional District
In a surprising twist, Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado is considering running in this southern Central Valley and eastern Bakersfield-area district. Former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas was thought to be the lone Democrat in the race, but Hurtado’s potential entry adds more intrigue to the contest.
California’s 27th Congressional District
Democrats are determined to break their losing streak against Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) in this exurban and high-desert district. Despite Biden’s clear victory over Trump in 2020, Garcia has proven to be a good fit for the district, with his military background and attention to local needs. Former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides is a promising Democratic candidate in this race.
California’s 40th Congressional District
Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) faces a competitive reelection race in this politically diverse district. Democrats are banking on increased turnout during a presidential year to help their candidate, retired Fire Captain Joe Kerr, secure a victory.
California’s 45th Congressional District
Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) represents this once deep-red Republican territory that has become politically competitive. Democrats are rallying behind Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen as they aim to flip the seat.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) has remained popular in this swing district, but Democrats are hopeful that a rematch with Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, combined with the presidential race, could tip the scales in their favor.
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District
Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) faces an uncertain reelection bid in this suburban district. Democrats are coalescing around activist Sue Altman, a doyenne of New Jersey’s hard Left, as they seek to unseat Kean.
New York’s 1st Congressional District
Freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) may appear vulnerable on paper, but his centrist credentials and criticism of his fellow Republican colleague have helped solidify his position. So far, no major Democratic opponents have emerged.
New York’s 3rd Congressional District
Rep. George Santos (R-NY) has faced controversy due to false claims about his background, making him a target for both Republicans and Democrats. Former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and Nassau County legislator Josh Lafazan are the leading Democratic candidates in this district.
New York’s 4th Congressional District
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) is defending his seat in this heavily Democratic district. Former Olympic figure skater Sarah Hughes and Laura Gillen, who lost to D’Esposito in 2022, are vying for the Democratic nomination.
New York’s 17th Congressional District
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) pulled off an upset victory in this district, but Democrats view it as a temporary setback. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones is seeking to return to Congress by running in this district after representing a neighboring one.
New York’s 19th Congressional District
Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) faces a strong Democratic challenge in this southeastern New York state district. Democrats are counting on increased turnout in the presidential race to help their candidate, Josh Riley, secure a win.
New York’s 22nd Congressional District
Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY) won this swing district in 2022, but Democrats are determined to reclaim it. DeWitt Town Councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood and state Sen. John Mannion are among the Democratic candidates vying for the nomination.
Oregon’s 5th Congressional District
Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) narrowly won in this district in 2022, but Democrats are eager for a rematch. Attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost to Chavez-DeRemer, and Lynn Peterson, chairwoman of the Metro Council, are the leading Democratic candidates.
Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) is facing a tough reelection battle in this suburban Philadelphia district. Democrats are hoping for a strong presidential race turnout to boost their candidate, Ashley Ehasz.
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) is currently in a strong position for reelection in this suburban Hampton Roads district. Democrats have yet to field a major candidate, but the presidential race could impact the outcome.
As House Democrats set their sights on these 18 Republican-held seats, the path to regaining the majority becomes clearer. With strategic targeting, strong candidates, and a favorable presidential race, Democrats are optimistic about their chances in 2024.
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