House Incumbents on Track to Lose the Most Primaries in Decades

Incumbent House members are on track to lose the most primaries in the 2022 midterm election cycle in decades.

So far, 11 House members have lost their primaries, including seven Republicans and four Democrats, with 10 of the incumbents being ousted as they faced off against a colleague due to redistricting, according to Axios. In 2020, 13 House incumbents lost their seats, the most primary election losses in a non-redistricting year since 1974.

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Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL) secured the Democratic nomination against his rival progressive incumbent Rep. Marie Newman (D-IL) after a majority of Newman’s district fell into Casten’s due to the state’s redrawn maps. Illinois lost a congressional seat for the first time in over 200 years after the 2020 U.S. census showed a population decline.

Several incumbents faced tough primary races as former President Donald Trump endorsed their opponents. Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) was defeated by John Gibbs, a former senior official in the Department of Housing and Urban Development during the Trump administration, in the Republican primary for Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District.

One incumbent will lose as Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Jerry Nadler (D-NY) face off in New York’s 12th Congressional District on Aug. 23.

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At least two other incumbent members are at risk of losing their seats, including Reps. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Mondaire Jones (D-NY). Cheney, who is one of two Republican members on the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 riot, is facing a challenge from Trump-backed Harriet Hageman.

If the total loss of incumbents rises to 14, it would be the most since 1992, when 19 incumbents lost renomination, according to Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.