China’s faltering real estate market jeopardizes global economy.
China’s Real-Estate Market in Crisis
China’s once booming real-estate market is now in turmoil, with one of its largest developers, Evergrande, filing for bankruptcy. This has significant implications not only for China’s economy but also for the global economy.
The Role of the Chinese Communist Party
The Chinese Communist Party’s policies have long influenced the real-estate sector. After taking control of China in 1949, the party abolished private property rights and nationalized land and home ownership. The government controlled all housing, resulting in poorly built public housing units.
- City dwellers received public housing allocations based on needs and social class.
- Most of these units were small and poorly constructed.
- Low rent was the only attractive feature due to government subsidies.
In the 1980s, the Chinese government recognized the need to stimulate economic growth and began privatizing public housing, encouraging homeownership, and welcoming private companies to develop real estate.
Demand and Wealth Building
China’s urbanization movement and growing household disposable income fueled demand for housing. With limited investment options, buying a house became a way for Chinese people to build wealth and save for retirement.
- About 90 percent of Chinese families own their homes.
- The real-estate sector represents almost a third of the nation’s GDP.
- However, the market’s growth has been accompanied by numerous problems.
Challenges in the Real-Estate Market
State-owned banks provided easy credit to developers with little oversight, leading to over-leveraging. Presale permits allowed developers to sell properties before completion, but lax regulations allowed them to misuse the proceeds.
- Developers faced little restriction in spending presale proceeds on unrelated projects.
- China is now saturated with incomplete housing projects, known as “ghost cities.”
Xi’s Wealth Redistribution
Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the Chinese government cracked down on private companies and arrested prominent entrepreneurs. Xi’s “common prosperity” policy aims to redistribute income and wealth through coercive means.
Developers Struggle
New government regulations, combined with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, have further strained China’s overleveraged developers. Housing sales have dropped, and some developers have filed for bankruptcy or suspended trading on their bonds.
Worldwide Ramifications
China’s economic struggles will have global implications. Investors have already suffered significant losses, and slowing economic growth will reduce China’s demand for commodities and natural resources. Additionally, China’s domestic unrest may lead to geopolitical tensions.
It is crucial to recognize that none of us are immune to China’s problems, as demonstrated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
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