Number of California House Seats that Could be Competitive in 2024

Although California is generally viewed as a Democratic stronghold, there are several competitive seats that could help determine the outcome of the House majority in the 2024 elections. Six California seats are expected to be hotly contested, with five currently held by Republicans but won by President Joe Biden in the 2020 elections. The remaining one is held by a Democrat, but several factors could hand it over to the Republicans.

The six seats that could be highly competitive in the 2024 elections are California’s 13th Congressional District, currently held by John Duarte (R); 22nd, held by David Valadao (R); 27th, held by Rep. Mike Garcia (R); 41st, held by Rep. Ken Kalvert (R); 45th, held by Rep. Michelle Steel (R); and 47th, held by Rep. Katie Porter (D).

According to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, there are few races that are somewhat uncertain, including that of California’s 3rd Congressional District, currently occupied by Rep. Kevin Kiley (R).

Interestingly, despite California’s left-leaning reputation, Republicans have made some gains in recent House elections. In 2018, Republicans held just 7 of the 53 seats but now hold 12 of the newly reworked 52 seats following the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans won five highly contentious races in districts that Biden had won in the presidential election, which Wasserman attributes to the unique nature of local California politics. With issues like abortion access off the table due to the state’s Democratic supermajority, Republicans can focus on other issues where their position is more popular among local voters. The absence of more contentious issues played to Republican strengths, enabling them to make the election more about the cost of living, homelessness, and crime.

Nevertheless, Republicans face a number of challenges that could affect their momentum in these competitive districts. One of the main issues is the higher turnout of Democrat-leaning Latinos during presidential elections than in midterm elections. In 2022, they helped Republicans win in close elections in previously Democrat-leaning districts. As a result, districts like the heavily Latino 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts could be vulnerable for Republicans in 2024. Additionally, the Latino population in competitive districts are increasing, contributing to the growing Democratic voter base in those areas.

Another challenge for Republicans is the issue of former President Donald Trump since the California Republicans in competitive districts tend to rely on a centrist image. If Trump becomes the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nominee, it could jeopardize their image and negatively affect their chances of winning the elections. The California Republicans will have to walk a fine line between disassociating themselves from Trump while not risking alienating their own Republican constituents or drawing the ire of the former president.

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