How Sabotage and Assassinations Could Escalate the Ukraine-Russia War

While sabotage in warfare is not new, it’s more common if it takes place on the territory or a NATO member purportedly neutral that provides aid. Ukraine We must fight against RussiaConflict escalation can be achieved.

The most recent Fire at a drone factory Latvia This is an example in potential sabotage. Because of the covert nature and sophistication of sabotage, it is difficult for states to assign blame. Both the victim and the belligerent states can avoid being attributed if the sabotage is committed on NATO territory. If not, NATO Article V Might be invoked by aggrieved states, though this does NOT mean war. Only consultation amongst NATO allies. Although the cause of the drone factory fire remains unknown, reports suggest that it was. Was not arson. If the sabotage is confirmed by a Russian state actor, then the Russia-Ukraine war could include many more NATO nations.

During the First World War there was sabotage of its territory by the United States. In 1916, the United States was neutral power but was selling munitions Nearly exclusively to the Western Allies. A massive explosion took place on July 30, 1916. Black Tom IslandNew Jersey explodes tons of railcar-stored munitions. The force of the concussive impact shattered windows throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn. German agents were suspected in sabotage but this was not confirmed. Not confirmed until nearly 20 years after the war had ended. This information would have made it possible for the United States to be forced to enter World War I as a belligerent, contrary to President Wilson’s reelection. Campaign promise to remain out of war. 

Covert Action

Ukraine has been involved in several Sabotage acts Also see a-href=”https://www.newsweek.com/russia-official-melitopol-assassination-attempt-explosion-ukraine-1758960″>assassinations This is “collaborators and occupying officials” on ahref=”https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6405″>territory The occupants of the apartment include Russia. Some of these acts were committed by Ukrainian patriots believing they are fighting against the Russian occupation. However, these private individuals are not necessarily associated with the state.

Please consider the following Daria Dugina’s murder On August 20, 2022, a car bomb was detonated in Moscow oblast. According to the Russian Federal Security Service, (FSB), a a href=”https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-names-2nd-suspect-in-killing-of-daria-dugina-daughter-of-putins-brain/”>Ukrainian Female suspect. According to the FSB, they traced the movements this woman made from Ukraine to Moscow. She rented an apartment in Daria’s Building and stayed there for a month. The FSB also noted that the woman was last reported to have been in Estonia. Extradition attempts She failed and she will probably not succeed, since Russia and Estonia are both unsuccessful been exiling each other’s ambassadors Diplomatic staff. Although the criminal case against the woman may be valid, it does not automatically make Ukraine guilty of the murder. Russia would need to prove that she was acting on behalf the government to attribute the murder to Ukraine. According to reports, Officials from the United States believe She was. Daria could have been the victim of the murder. She is a media personality in her own rightAlexander Dugin, her father, is sometimes called ‘The Dugins’. “Putin’s Brain” And the ahref=”https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/21/europe/alexander-dugin-russia-profile-intl/index.html#:~:text=ideological%20architects%20of%20Russian%20expansionism%2C%20Dugin”>propaganda Architekt Ukraine’s invasion by Russia.

State responsibility

The Articles on State Responsibility (ARS). This framework helps to determine when a state could be held liable for its wrongdoings. The authors of the ARS were United Nations International Law Commission They were officially recognized by the United Nations in Dec 2001 United Nations General Assembly Resolution (UNGAR 56/83.

Article 2 of the ARSM An act that is wrongfully committed by a state is described as “an action or omission attributable to the State under international law” That “constitutes a breach of an international obligation of the State.” Sabotage could be considered an act d’agression (UNGAR 3314(XXIX). Aggression (definition) in violation to the prohibition against using force against state’s (UN Charter Article 2(4).

One way to attribute a state’s actions as a saboteur is through the ARS is multiple ways. Article 4 of the ARS It is assumed that any action taken by a State organ or a part of the State’s government is a state-level action. Act by an entity or person exercising government authorityArticle 5 of the ARS) is also considered a state action even when that action is not authorized or even prohibited by the state (Article 7 of the ARS). This last aspect is vital because it prevents the state’s agents from claiming that they were acting beyond their authority or without authorization. Comments to ARS, Article 7 ¶ 3). An additional way to hold a state responsible for acts committed by a private individual is to “acknowledge and adopt” the behavior as its own.Article 11 of the ARSM).”

Alexander Dugin is Social media mocking For his understandable emotions at the murder of his daughter. A combination of Article 7 & Article 11 could attach state responsibility if a Ukrainian government officials was one of those online trolls who praised her death. Ukraine would not accept such statements from a government official. Ukraine accepted responsibility for Daria Dugina’s murder. This statement was made by Mr. Dugin in an ahref=”https://www.geopolitika.ru/article/killers-made-dasha-immortal”>interview, “They may have wanted to kill my daughter Dasha, but they made her immortal.”

Effective Control

To prove state responsibility for saboteurs acting as private individuals, there is a high standard of proof. It must be demonstrated that the State has effective control over the person (Article 8 of the ARSP). This standard was established  by the International Court of Justice in the Paramilitary activities (¶115) case and most recently in the Bosnian Genocide (¶396-406) case. To illustrate, it must be proven that the State ordered the saboteur go to a specific place, to place a weapon in a certain manner, and to return with information about the mission’s outcomes. Strangely, the State can supply materials to the saboteur without state responsibility (See Paramilitary activities case ¶228).

Remedies

If effective control can easily be demonstrated, and assuming that the NATO victim state doesn’t invoke Article VThe ASR offers several remedies. The injured state may seek damages (Article 31 of the ARSM) which include restitution, compensation, and satisfaction or a combination of the three (Article 34 of the ARS). The drone factory’s restitution would include its repair or replacement, if this is possible and not too burdensome.Article 35, ARS). The financial loss resulting from the wrongful act is covered by compensationArticle 36 of the ARS). The state acknowledges and apologizes for any wrongdoings, which is called satisfaction.Article 37 of the ARS).

Conclusion

The exact cause of the drone factory explosion remains unknown. Latvia and NATO would need to decide how to respond if the drone factory fire was caused by sabotage. While the ARS offers a framework for addressing the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it is not realistic. 

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Brent Stricker, Lieutenant ColonelU.S. Marine Corps. He serves as Director for Expeditionary Operations. Naval War College. These views are the author’s and may not reflect the policy or position of U.S. Marine Corps or the U.S. Navy or the Department of Defense. 

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