The federalist

Israel’s failure to anticipate Hamas attack was due to hubris, not conspiracy

Israel’s Vulnerability: Underestimating the Enemy

Israel is like‍ Brussels, but with a twist. Imagine if Brussels shared a ​border with medieval warlords armed‌ with modern​ weapons. That’s the reality Israel faces.

After a massive terrorist attack on October 7, ‍many questioned how a technologically advanced nation like Israel could have allowed such⁣ an incursion. The myth of Israel’s​ infallible security services was shattered.

The ‌New York Times recently revealed that Israeli officials had known about ​Hamas’ plans for the attack a ‌year in advance. However, they dismissed the plans as mere aspirations and ignored the warnings.

Israel’s Arrogance and Underestimation

Israelis can be arrogant and dismissive of their enemies, leading‍ to⁣ disastrous consequences. In this case, Israel⁢ overestimated its security services and underestimated Hamas. Their enemies may be terrorists, but they are ​not‌ foolish.

It’s important to remember the stark economic, moral, and lifestyle disparities between Israel and its neighbors. Israel’s per capita GDP is comparable to Western European nations, while in Palestinian territories, the GDP⁣ is on par with countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon.

Living⁢ in a technologically advanced democracy, Israelis often ⁢forget this harsh reality. The Iron Dome, top-tier military, and​ prosperous Western lifestyles can ⁢create a⁤ false sense ⁤of security.

The Challenge⁢ of Protecting Civilians

Israeli officials receive numerous warnings, some of which may be disinformation. Protecting civilians from random acts of violence is far more difficult than carrying out such attacks. Each encounter with Hamas is a victory for the terror group and a disaster for ‌Israel.

Israel’s struggle⁣ lies in operating a modern military while dealing with low-tech, high-reward terrorist events. They face challenges posed by automatic rifles, knives,‌ homemade explosives, and even paragliders.

The Political Considerations

Cracking​ down on Hamas brings condemnation and pressure from the international community, including allies. Political considerations heavily⁢ influence ‍Israel’s decisions, as politicians are naturally risk-averse.

This is not the first ⁤time⁢ Israel has faced such a‌ situation. In 1973, they were caught off guard‌ by a ⁢surprise attack from ‍Egypt and ‍Syria. ​The psychological trauma of the ​October 7 attack⁤ surpasses even the devastating loss of life in the 1973 war.

Conspiracy theories have emerged, suggesting that ‌Benjamin Netanyahu knew about the attack. However, the truth is far less sensational but more ⁤serious for Israel.


David Harsanyi is ⁣a senior editor at The Federalist, a nationally syndicated columnist, a Happy​ Warrior columnist at National ⁤Review, and author of five books—the most recent, Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the ⁤Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent. Follow him on Twitter, @davidharsanyi.

What are the potential consequences of underestimating the ‍capabilities of Hamas and other militant ⁢groups?

Per capita GDP is significantly ⁣lower. This economic​ gap creates ⁢a sense of superiority among⁣ Israelis, leading‌ them ‌to underestimate the‍ capabilities of their enemies.

The underestimation of ​Hamas and other‌ militant groups‌ poses a⁤ serious threat to‌ Israel’s security. ​These groups⁢ have demonstrated their ability to adapt and innovate,‌ making⁣ use of new technologies and tactics to carry out attacks. Israel’s security services must recognize and ⁤adapt to this evolving threat if⁢ they wish ​to⁢ effectively protect their citizens.

Furthermore, the ⁣arrogance and dismissiveness⁤ of Israeli officials has hindered effective intelligence gathering and sharing. ‌In the case of the recent terrorist attack, the warnings ⁢about Hamas’ plans ‌were ⁢dismissed as mere aspirations. This‌ negligence allowed the attack‌ to take ​place, resulting in numerous casualties.

Israel’s vulnerability⁣ also lies in its political and diplomatic⁣ isolation.⁤ The country faces⁢ constant ⁢criticism and condemnation from many international actors. This isolation makes it difficult for Israel to form alliances or ‍receive ‌support from other nations, leaving‌ it more vulnerable to attacks and threats.

Israel must confront‍ its vulnerability by ⁤reassessing its approach towards its‌ enemies. It cannot ⁣afford to ⁤be complacent or dismissive. Instead, it should invest‌ in its security ⁢services, intelligence ‌gathering, and defense capabilities. It should also work‌ towards building⁢ stronger diplomatic alliances ⁣and improving relationships with neighboring countries.

Additionally, Israel must address the root ‍causes of conflict and work towards a sustainable and just resolution. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuels animosity and ⁢radicalization, providing⁤ fertile ‌ground ⁣for militant groups to recruit and ⁢carry out attacks.

By recognizing their vulnerability and taking the necessary steps ‌to address it, Israel can‌ strengthen its security and ensure the safety of its citizens. Underestimating ​the enemy is not an option. Israel’s security relies on understanding ​and⁢ effectively countering the threats it faces, both militarily and diplomatically.



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