Hurricane Hilary emerges, may bring downpours to SoCal.
Tropical Storm Hilary Becomes a Hurricane, Threatens Southern California
Tropical Storm Hilary has transformed into a hurricane early Thursday morning, with forecasters warning of its potential to intensify and bring rare impacts to Southern California and the Southwest region.
“Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes post-tropical,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in an advisory.
Hurricane Hilary is expected to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds. However, it is anticipated to weaken significantly before reaching Southern California.
“Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Hilary could become a major hurricane by tonight or early Friday,” the Miami-based center wrote in its latest advisory.
Currently, Hurricane Hilary is a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, located approximately 300 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and 560 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It is moving west-northwest at 13 mph, according to the NHC.
A forecast model indicates that the storm may still be a tropical storm when it reaches Southern California early Monday morning. It is then expected to weaken further into a tropical depression between 12 a.m. Monday and 12 a.m. Tuesday.
Parts of the Inland Empire metropolitan area could experience up to 6 inches of rain, while Southern California, including San Diego and Los Angeles, could receive 1 to 4 inches. The Sierra Nevada mountains and areas near Las Vegas, Nevada, may also see up to 6 inches of rain, as reported by the National Weather Service.
“Hilary has the potential to bring significant impacts to the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, including after it becomes post-tropical,” the NHC said in a forecast discussion. “Although it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of wind impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today.”
The NHC also warned of potential flash flooding and landslides on the Baja California peninsula from Friday to Sunday. It added that rainfall impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak on Sunday and Monday.
Daniel Swain, a scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles, stated that Southern California could experience “multiple years’ worth of precipitation.” The National Weather Service’s San Diego office echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the need for preparedness and acknowledging the forecast’s uncertainty regarding timing, location, and magnitude of impacts.
‘Above-Normal’ Season
Despite the current lull in the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center raised its 2023 prediction from near-normal to “above-normal.”
“Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA.
According to the NHC’s hurricane map, there are currently no tropical storms, depressions, or hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. However, there are two disturbances with a 40 to 60 percent chance of forming a tropical cyclone within the next two days.
“NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook—which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30
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