Hurricane Ian Strengthens to Category 3 Storm, Heads for Dangerous Strike on Florida
- Hurricane Ian is moving across western Cuba.
- Ian is now a major Category 3 hurricane.
- It poses a serious danger to the Florida Peninsula.
- Hurricane and tropical storm alerts have been issued in Florida.
- Interests in those areas should be implementing their hurricane safety plans.
Hurricane Ian strengthened into a Category 3 early Tuesday while hammering western Cuba and is now headed into the Gulf of Mexico for a dangerous strike on Florida.
Ian rapidly intensified into a major hurricane at 2:30 a.m. EDT and then made landfall in western Cuba two hours later. It will emerge over the waters of the southeast Gulf of Mexico later Tuesday.
Any final preparations for Ian in Florida should be rushed to completion today since conditions will deteriorate over the next 12 to 24 hours.
Here’s a look at everything we know right now about Ian.
(MORE: Ian News Updates)
Latest Status
Ian is currently centered over western Cuba and is moving north. Maximum sustained winds have jumped to 125 mph.
Hurricane conditions are ongoing in western Cuba and bands of rain containing gusty winds have also spread to the Florida Peninsula.
Current Watches, Warnings
A hurricane warning is in effect for parts of Florida’s West Coast from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. This warning means tropical storm conditions are expected by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions arriving Wednesday.
A hurricane warning is also in effect for parts of western Cuba, as shown in the map below. This means hurricane conditions are ongoing.
A storm surge warning is in effect from the Anclote River to Flamingo, meaning life-threatening flooding from rising water moving inland from the coastline is possible.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for other parts of western and central Cuba, much of Central Florida, the lower Florida Keys and portions of Florida’s Atlantic coast, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected there Tuesday or Wednesday.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Florida’s northeast coast and southeastern Georgia, where tropical storm conditions are possible by Wednesday afternoon or Thursday
Forecast Path, Intensity
Here is the latest forecast path of Ian, according to the National Hurricane Center. This has been trending south and east over the last day or two.
Some additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday, but then Ian could lose some wind intensity as it encounters increased wind shear and possibly some dry air as it nears Florida. That said, it will still be a large and dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the coast.
Where the center of Ian makes landfall on Wednesday or Thursday will be critical for where the greatest storm surge pushes into the coast. Damaging winds and flooding rainfall are likely in a much broader area of the Florida Peninsula regardless of the final track.
The track could be a near worst-case storm surge scenario for the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater area if Ian follows a path near the left side of the cone of uncertainty.
A track on the right side of the path could send the worst storm surge farther south toward Charlotte Harbor and Fort Myers.
Projected Path And Latest Storm Information
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.
)
Forecast Impacts
Storm Surge
Ian’s growth in size and its potential to slow down as it nears the Gulf Coast makes it a formidable storm surge threat, regardless of any intensity it may lose before landfall as we’ll discuss later.
The map below shows possible peak storm surge inundation, if that happens at the time of high tide, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Storm surge flooding could begin in far South Florida late Tuesday, and in the rest of western Florida starting Wednesday.
The peak surge, possibly up to 10 feet, will occur near and south of where the center makes landfall in western Florida on Wednesday or Thursday. That could be anywhere from near the Tampa area to near the Fort Myers area.
Evacuate if you are ordered to do so or you could be putting yourself at serious risk.
Storm surge will also be possible on the First Coast of Florida and into coastal Georgia and South Carolinas, especially if Ian slows down and water can begin building up. Given the wind direction out of the northeast as this may occur, the St. John’s River in Northeast Florida may back up and flood.
Wind Threat
Tropical storm force winds are expected (in warned areas) to arrive in southwest Florida beginning Tuesday. Hurricane conditions will develop in the hurricane warning area in western Florida on Wednesday.
Remember, impacts with any tropical storm or hurricane typically occur outside the forecast path and will arrive before the center.
Power outages and downed trees are likely in areas under hurricane and tropical storm warnings. Those outages could last for days in locations that see the strongest winds.
Structural damage is also expected, especially near where the core of the hurricane’s center tracks.
Timing of Tropical Storm Force Winds
(This map illustrates the timing and potential aerial extent of tropical storm force winds from Ian. While some areas may experience hurricane-force winds, the onset of tropical storm-force winds will make storm preparations more difficult. )
Rainfall
Heavy rainfall is a threat from the Florida Peninsula into portions of the Southeast from now through the weekend.
Here’s the latest rainfall forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
-Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with locally up to 8 inches.
-Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with locally up to 24 inches.
-Northeast Florida and the remainder of the central Florida Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with locally up to 12 inches.
-Multi-inch rainfall totals are also possible in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
This heavy rain is likely to trigger flash flooding, especially in urban areas, and river flooding.
Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )
Water pushing in from the Gulf could act as a temporary roadblock to rain-swollen rivers that normally drain to the Gulf, compounding flooding along and near the western Florida Gulf Coast.
Ian will then move inland over the Southeast U.S., spreading heavy rain, some winds and the potential for isolated tornadoes later Friday into the weekend.
(MORE: Ian A Gulf Coast Danger Regardless of Its ‘Category’)
All interests in the Florida Peninsula should monitor Ian’s forecast and have their hurricane plans in place. Heed any evacuation orders from local emergency management and make sure you’re prepared for potential long-lived power outages.
Check back with us at weather.com for the very latest on this developing situation.
More from weather.com:
12 Things You May Not Know About Your Hurricane Forecast
7 Things Florida Newcomers Should Know About Hurricane Season
The Florida Peninsula’s Luck Since Hurricane Irma Won’t Last
Waves crash against a seawall as Hurricane Ian passes through George Town, Grand Cayman island, Monday, Sept. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Kevin Morales)
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