If China Invades Taiwan, Thousands Will Die Quickly

An invasion by the Chinese of Taiwan would cause heavy casualties, not only in Taiwan but also worldwide. China and TaiwanNot only the U.S. but also Japan were among Washington’s most influential think tanks after they conducted war simulations to simulate a Chinese invasion in 2026 Taiwan. 

The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) conducted these war games and covered 24 scenarios of how an invasion might look. 

More than 3,200 U.S. soldiers would die in action in the first three week of the invasion. This is half the number of casualties as during the 20 years of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This does not include casualties that may occur in other theatres such as the South China Sea. China would be the country with the highest casualties. They would lose approximately 10,000 soldiers in combat within the first three weeks. According to the report, the overwhelming majority of Taiwan’s 30,000+ survivors from China would be taken prisoner at the end of combat. 

Mark Cancian is the author of the war games report. He said that the U.S. should do more to protect Taiwan in the Pacific. He also stated that the U.S. cannot send arms after an invasion in the same way it did in Ukraine. The Chinese air and navy capabilities are strong enough to prevent reinforcements from getting onto Taiwan. According to Fox News, Taiwan will need all its equipment in order to win the conflict. 

This undated file photo shows a Chinese PLA J-16 fighter plane flying in an undisclosed area.
(Taiwan Ministry of Defense via AP).

INSPIRED BY UKRAINE, TAIWAN SEEKS TO BOLSTER MILITARY PREPAREDNESS AS CHINA THREAT CONTINUES

Cancian suggested that the U.S. should accelerate its pace of economic growth. military shipments to TaiwanSpecifically, long-range bombers equipped with anti-ship missiles. “Our inventory of those missiles is very shallow. We run out in just a couple of days. We need to build a lot more of those,” He was very clear.

Ninety percent would be lost to Chinese missile strikes on the ground, not in the air. Cancian stressed that it was important to build hardened shelters for the protection of aircraft. Andersen Air Force Base in Guam because there are no hard shelters that can provide protection for the aircraft. “The Chinese missiles would devastate those aircraft,” He said. 

A Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Type 10 combat tank fires ammunition at East Fuji Maneuver Area (Gotemba, Shizuoka) on May 28, 2022.
(Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)

Japan is a crucial part of Taiwan’s defense. Japan is the home of its attack aircraft and bases for the U.S. “They have relatively short legs. They need to get close to be able to affect the fighting over Taiwan. So the connection with Japan is absolutely critical to defending Taiwan,” Cancian, 

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with President Biden in the Oval Office of the White House on Friday as fears mount that China could have the capability to invade Taiwan in the coming years. “Japan and the United States are currently facing the most challenging and complex security environment in recent history,” Koshida told Biden.

Fumio Kishhida, Japanese Prime Minster, and President Biden, met in Washington, D.C., in the Oval Office of the White House on Friday.
(Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

FOR CHINA’S MILITARY PLANNERS, TAIWAN IS NOT AN EASY ISLAND TO INVADE

His foreign and defense ministers accompanied Kishida to Washington. Plans were made to build runways on uninhabited Japanese island closer to Taiwan. Japan stated that it will purchase more Tomahawk missiles from the U.S. and longer-range cruise missiles.

Japan has pledged to an historic increase in defense spending. It will spend 2% of its GDP over the next five year, making it the third largest defense budget worldwide. This represents a significant departure from Japan’s post-World War II pacifist military strategy.  

Japan and the U.S. announced a new space security agreement and a smaller, less advanced one. Marine Corps regiment with advanced intelligence and anti-ship missile capabilities to be stationed in Okinawa, Japan.

By fiscal year 2025, the 12th Marine Regiment on Okinawa will become the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment. The agreement will not add any new units to Okinawa, but it will make the 12th Marine Regiment smaller and more mobile. It includes a combat unit with an anti ship missile battery, a logistics regiment and an air defence battalion. This would reduce the number of Marines in Okinawa to around 2,000, from 3,400 Marines and sailors currently. “The idea is that it will be able to contribute to this air naval conflict in the Western Pacific,” Cancian, 

A People’s Liberation Army member looks through binoculars during military exercises as Taiwan’s frigate Lan Yang is seen on Aug. 5, 2022.
(Lin Jian/Xinhua via AP)

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After a 2+2 Meeting featuring Secretary of State Antony Blinken On Wednesday, Lloyd Austin, Defense Secretary of the United States, and their Japanese counterparts discussed the new capabilities of Marine regiments. “We will equip this new formation with advanced intelligence surveillance, surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as anti-ship and transportation capabilities that are relevant to the current and future threat environments,” He said. 

The war games helped bring China’s capabilities to the forefront in an unclassified space. “For a long time, Chinese military capabilities were not very impressive. Their air and naval power in particular were weak,” Cancian, “That’s not true now. They built both of these up to a substantial amount. So reinforcing these U.S. capabilities is going to be important.”

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