An open primary in blue Illinois would attract a wave of high-profile Democrats seizing what could be a once-in-a-generation chance to claim one of the state’s two Senate seats. Some have even made public overtures that they would run.

Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) is fundraising off an ally-commissioned poll showing her with a hypothetical lead, while Juliana Stratton, the lieutenant governor of Illinois, has begun to tell state Democrats she’s interested in the seat and would have the support of her boss, Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL).

That early maneuvering could evaporate if Durbin decides to mount another campaign. He’s a mainstay of Democratic politics in Illinois, having served four decades in Congress, and ran uncontested in his 2020 primary.

But Durbin, who has held the role of Democratic whip for two decades, has been content to leave the primary field effectively frozen as he weighs the final chapters of his political career. Even his fellow Senate Democrats are in the dark about his decision, and Durbin has begun to refuse questions on the topic in the halls of Congress.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), his home state colleague, said she has not spoken with Durbin about his political future but extended understanding to both him and those angling to replace him. 

“They have to do what they think is right for themselves,” she told the Washington Examiner. “Obviously, Sen. Durbin has more than earned the patience and the grace to make the decision on his own time.”

In late March, Durbin told local outlet ABC7 that he will make an announcement in a “few weeks,” meaning his decision could be timed to overlap with a two-week congressional recess that began on Friday.

There is also speculation he will reveal his intentions ahead of next week’s preslating meeting for the Cook County Democratic Party. Preslating is a chance for would-be candidates to get better acquainted with the party leadership ahead of an endorsement it will issue later this year.

Waiting in the wings

Not all Illinois Democrats have so openly signaled their interest in a Senate run. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthy (D-IL), seen as a leading contender thanks to his fundraising prowess, has been careful not to step on Durbin’s toes ahead of an announcement.

“I think Dick Durbin has been one of the great senators for Illinois, and there’s no vacancies, so there’s really nothing to talk about,” he told the Washington Examiner.

Others have sought to end speculation before it begins. Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-IL), a progressive member, declined to run last month, instead promising in a statement to Politico to support a “candidate who will fight for and center working people.”

Still, the level of attention the race is generating in Illinois suggests that Democrats widely expect Durbin to retire. Several House Democrats, among them Underwood and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL), have acknowledged their interest.

A source familiar with Kelly’s (D-IL) thinking told the Washington Examiner that if Durbin retires, she would “seriously consider running.” 

“She’s keeping all options open and looking into it,” the source said of Kelly, the former chairwoman of the Illinois Democratic Party, when asked about forming an exploratory committee.

As for Underwood, she sent a fundraising plea telling supporters this week that she is “gearing up and getting ready” after a poll commissioned by 314 Action, an allied group, found her statistically tied with Krishnamoorthy, the top Democrat on the House Select Committee on China.

Rahm Emmanuel, the former mayor of Chicago, has stoked speculation he might run for president in 2028, but his name is perennially floated for statewide office.

The planning is necessary to avoid getting outflanked in what could be a bruising primary. Krishamoorthy raised $3 million in the first three months of the year alone, padding what is now a $19 million war chest.

Stratton, the lieutenant governor, could also expect substantial financial backing from Pritzker, a billionaire whose family built the Hyatt hotel empire, should he support her candidacy.

The moves are nonetheless striking given Durbin’s lack of announcement. He is on the later end for making reelection decisions, but not by much. Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) announced his retirement in late January, Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) in February, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in March.

The primary field is hardly set in stone. Pritzker could shake up Illinois politics if he opts against a third term as governor, forcing Democrats to choose a lane in the 2026 primary. Statewide politicians could also be pulled into a 2027 race for mayor of Chicago.

On the Republican side, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) is among the names being floated for governor, though he’s also expressed openness to a Senate run. A Republican has not been elected to the Senate in Illinois since 2010 due to the state’s Democratic lean.

“He would be the type of candidate that would be more formidable than others,” Robin Johnson, an adjunct professor at Monmouth College, said of LaHood.

“And I think he could raise some money and be strong downstate, the key would be to kind of make inroads in the suburbs,” he added. “Darin is the type of candidate I think that could do that.”

Age hangs over Durbin election plans

At age 80, Durbin maintains that he still has the vigor to serve in the Senate for another six years. He is far from the only octogenarian in the chamber: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), 83, announced last May that he would run again, while the oldest senator is Chuck Grassley (R-IA), age 91.

Durbin has nonetheless acknowledged that he is mindful of his “mental and physical abilities” in weighing reelection. He still maintains a rigorous schedule as Democratic whip but has undergone a handful of medical procedures in recent years, most recently a hip replacement last summer.

Durbin is also not immune to the Left’s clamoring for a younger, more combative generation of leadership. As chairman of the Judiciary Committee, he took an increasingly hard line on what Democrats claimed were ethics lapses by conservative members of the Supreme Court but has rebuffed their more extreme demands, including calls to subpoena the justices.

For now, Durbin has mostly escaped the progressive uproar over President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the top Senate Democrat, bearing the brunt of their March decision to decline a shutdown fight.

Schumer gave political cover to nine other Democratic-caucusing senators, including Durbin, who voted for a GOP bill to fund the government through September, prompting calls for him to step down from leadership.

Still, Durbin is part of an older crop of lawmakers who have begun to relinquish their power in the face of a restive progressive base.

Leadership changed hands in the House in 2023, with former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and her deputies stepping down from their long-held posts.

In the Senate, the change has been more gradual. Sen. Debbie Stabenow retired in January, allowing Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), 10 years her junior, to ascend to the No. 3 leadership spot.

Senate dominoes

Should Durbin retire, his leadership position would be open for the first time since 2005. Durbin was viewed as a possible rival to Schumer before he ascended to the No. 1 spot, but Durbin quickly endorsed him succeeding the late Sen. Harry Reid in 2015.

The position of whip comes with a lot less power in the minority, with Republicans flipping four seats and control of the Senate in November. But it could hand a younger senator an enduring place in the ranks of leadership.

Senate Democrats were reluctant to speak of the possibility, and many still see Durbin as the best person for the job.

“I hope he’ll continue because he’s one of our best and I don’t know who would fill his shoes,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), one of his colleagues on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

But a retirement announcement would quickly set off equally as intense speculation over who might take his place in Washington. Klobuchar and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) both moved up in December as a result of Stabenow’s retirement, with Booker elevated to the No. 4 spot.

SCHUMER’S GRIP ON NEW YORK LOOSENS UNDER TRUMP 2.0

Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), the chief deputy on Durbin’s whip team, is floated as another possible contender. He caught the attention of reporters in March when he bucked other progressive Democrats to support the GOP government funding bill.

Durbin has previously acknowledged that losing control of the Senate is a factor in his reelection plans, telling the Chicago Tribune in November that he would wait and see how the two parties get along in the new Congress.