Wisconsin GOP leaders discuss battle for Tammy Baldwin’s Senate seat.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin: A Strong Contender for Wisconsin’s Senate Seat
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) may feel cautiously optimistic about next year’s election. Almost a decade after she soundly defeated former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson in a contest for Democrat Herb Kohl’s old seat, she stands out as a not actively unpopular liberal senator in America’s Dairyland. Think Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) without the clear presidential aspirations.
“We’re proud of the fact that we’ve been able to turn Wisconsin from what was kind of previously a reliably blue state into, at worst, a purple state,” said Brian Westrate, the Republican Party of Wisconsin’s state treasurer, in an Aug. 2 interview with The Epoch Times.
And local Democrats have enjoyed some electoral improvements under the leadership of Ben Wikler, who has chaired the state’s party since 2019. The state that elected conservative Republican Scott Walker governor is now run by left-leaning Democrat Tony Evers, and Judge Janet Protasiewicz won a key seat in the state’s Supreme Court in 2023, tipping that body to the left. Perhaps most notably, in 2020, President Joe Biden claimed the state President Donald Trump took in 2016.
Republican Strengths in Wisconsin
Yet, while some Democratic achievements in Wisconsin have made headlines, other, less well-publicized indicators signal quiet strength on the Republican side.
- The GOP has maintained its hold over the state senate and assembly since 2018.
- The state senate is now made up of 22 Republicans and 11 Democrats.
- In the state assembly, there are 64 Republicans and 35 Democrats.
- The GOP also dominates the state’s delegation to the House of Representatives with six Republicans and just two Democrats.
And while the last few years have seen some wins by Democrats, the state’s party has mostly regained ground that it lost to the GOP in the recent past.
The Battle for Wisconsin’s Senate Seat
The upcoming battle over Ms. Baldwin’s seat comes as national Republicans make Wisconsin a focal point. The first primary candidate debate took place in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, though the frontrunner, Mr. Trump, was notably absent. The party will also hold its 2024 national convention in Milwaukee in July.
Ahead of next year, it’s clear that Upper Midwestern voters matter to both parties, but perhaps especially to Republicans eager to avoid a repeat of 2020 and the unimpressive “red trickle” of 2022.
“We are perhaps the most important, or one of the top-five most important states in the country in terms of who’s going to be the next president, and I want to make sure that we win the presidency in 2024,” said Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) in an Aug. 17 interview with The Epoch Times.
If Wisconsinites vote red, it’s not because they always see red.
“We’re Wisconsin nice. We’re not fire breathers. We’re not bomb throwers,” Mr. Westrate said.
On his account, the party has been able to make a particularly strong case to Cheeseheads on economic issues.
“If you can acknowledge that two plus two equals four, I think we can get you to see how our economic policies lead to prosperity,” he said.
Social issues might be a different story in the moderate state.
“The social issues are what they are,” he said.
“If you have a loved one who’s part of the LGBT community, or if you have a loved one who you know had an abortion for one reason or another, or if you’re not a person of faith, those things are going to define your own personal social issues,” Mr. Westrate continued.
Mr. Tiffany laid out how he thinks Republicans can make a convincing argument for themselves, particularly after the 2020 reelection contest saw Mr. Trump’s support apparently erode relative to that of his Democratic competition.
“Set the personalities aside for those people that simply want to talk about Donald Trump and personalities,” he said.
He listed government spending, energy independence, and the border among the issues he sees as “powerful for the voters of the state of Wisconsin.”
“You’ve got to talk to people about that,” he added.
Both Mr. Tiffany and Mr. Westrate mentioned education as an issue where Republicans could shine, with the lawmaker suggesting that student performance in Dane County, a Democratic stronghold, opened up an opportunity for Republicans.
“When you look at student achievement, especially the racial disparity, in Madison, that should be a three-alarm fire for people in Dane County,” he said.
“You can’t concede Dane County because it’s the fastest-growing county in the state,” Mr. Tiffany continued.
Mr. Tiffany said that Ms. Baldwin’s long history in government, beginning with her election to the Dane County Board of Supervisors at age 24, could harm her reelection bid.
“She’s a career politician, and people are just tired of them,” he said.
He also characterized Ms. Baldwin as “a rubber stamp for President Biden.”
“We’ve seen what Bidenomics has done to America,” Mr. Tiffany added, citing energy prices, inflation, and a downgrade in the United States’ credit rating.
Yet, Mr. Westrate acknowledged that Ms. Baldwin’s record has relatively few obvious vulnerabilities as she prepares to seek another term.
“Senator Baldwin doesn’t appear to have done a lot of things that might have turned the middle off,” he said, referring to the vast number of middle-of-the-road voters who, in his words, ”win the election.”
For his part, Mr. Tiffany suggested that the Wisconsin contest may be a low priority for the National Republican Senate Committee’s (NRSC’s) resources as against other likely critical contests: ”West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, possibly Arizona.”
He said the eventual candidate would need “to convince [NRSC Chair] Steve Daines that Wisconsin is worth investing in.”
Potential Candidates
Mr. Tiffany spoke with The Epoch Times weeks after he turned down the chance to run against Ms. Baldwin himself.
“I thought that I could do the most good for the people in the State of Wisconsin staying put in the 7th congressional district because the most important race that is going to happen in 2024 is the presidential campaign,” he told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Walker, the state’s former governor, and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) are among the other Wisconsin politicians who have also declined to challenge Ms. Baldwin.
Longshot Republican candidate Rejani Raveendran entered contention in early August. For now, more plausible Republican hopefuls haven’t yet joined the race.
“We are optimistic that we’re going to have an excellent candidate step forward, or candidates, and then through the primary process, that people will choose the person they want to ultimately face Senator Baldwin,” Mr. Westrate said.
One of the better-known potential primary entrants is former Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke. Mr. Clarke has repeatedly hinted at a run, posting a screenshotted poll on Twitter/X that he said shows no one “energizes or excites the base voter like I do.”
The Public Policy Polling survey, conducted before Mr. Tiffany and Mr. Gallagher dropped out, showed Mr. Clarke besting Mr. Tiffany, Mr. Gallagher, and Madison businessman Eric Hovde by wide margins.
“Sheriff Clarke certainly has a certain notoriety within some elements of the right side of the aisle. I would tend to look maybe at some folks who have run statewide races previously, who have a good sense of what that takes to at least be competitive in a statewide race,” Mr. Westrate said.
Asked to name contenders who warrant attention from national media, he mentioned Will Martin, who ran in the state’s 2022 Republican lieutenant governor primary. He also drew attention to that year’s Republican lieutenant governor candidate, Roger Roth, who lost to Democrat Sara Rodriguez, and to former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch.
“I don’t think she [Ms. Kleefisch] has any interest in federal office. But she’s somebody that I think should certainly be in the conversation if we’re talking about statewide candidates,” Mr. Westrate said.
TV host Rachel Campos-Duffy, the wife of former congressman and “Real World” star Sean Duffy, and the mother of Chicago Thinker co-founder Evita Duffy, has also come up as a possible opponent of Ms. Baldwin.
“I think she would be a very strong candidate,” Mr. Tiffany said, adding that he thinks Mr. Duffy would also “be a very s
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