Trump leads GOP field in early endorsements, ahead of DeSantis by 72-5.

Former President Donald Trump is off to a strong start in the endorsement race, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lags behind. Some of DeSantis’ supporters worry that he may have hurt his chances by not declaring his candidacy yet, but Trump has already secured endorsements from 11 Florida congressmen, including some of the most prominent names in the Republican Party. In contrast, DeSantis has only secured the endorsement of one representative so far.

Endorsements Predictive of Presidential Nominations

Endorsements have proven to be a reliable predictor of who wins presidential nominations, according to political analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com. Since 1972, endorsements have outperformed political polls in predicting presidential nominees. Trump currently has 72 endorsements, while DeSantis has only 5. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s scoring system, which gives more weight to prominent endorsers, Trump has 244 endorsement points, while DeSantis has only 13.

Playing Field Tilted in Favor of Biden and Trump

The playing field is currently tilted in favor of President Joe Biden on the Democrat side and in favor of Trump on the Republican side, according to nonpartisan political analyst Nathan Gonzales. Trump’s larger-than-life presence and fiercely loyal conservative base make it difficult for Republican politicians who are lukewarm on Trump or secretly anti-Trump to endorse an opponent. However, Gonzales believes that DeSantis can still catch up if he declares his candidacy soon and builds his base of support.

Trump’s Messaging May Not Be a Winning Strategy

Trump’s recent messaging attacking DeSantis for disloyalty may not be a winning strategy, according to Gonzales. Trump rose to power with a populist message, but his current message has more to do with him and disloyalty. Gonzales is skeptical that Trump will return to the White House on a message of “Ron DeSantis was disloyal to me.”

Endorsements and Money Matter, but So Does Messaging

While endorsements and money matter in presidential campaigns, messaging is also crucial. DeSantis’ delay in announcing his candidacy may be hurting him with endorsements, but he can still catch up if he builds his base of support and is perceived as doing well enough in the polls. Ultimately, the power of being an incumbent leader cannot be discounted, and the 2024 presidential campaign is likely to be complicated by the presence of both Biden and Trump.