In Reynosa, Mexico, 15,000 Haitian Immigrants Wait For New Chaotic Biden Policy To Kick In

Todd BensmanMay 2, 2023

15,000 Haitian Immigrants in Reynosa, Mexico: Will They Stay or Will They Go?

Reynosa, Mexico is currently home to an estimated 15,000 mostly Haitian immigrants who have packed into every crevice of the city on the Rio Grande across from McAllen, Texas. And they won’t leave until after 11:59 p.m. on May 11.

That’s the moment when the pandemic-era “Title 42” rapid expulsion policy finally expires and is replaced by a new, untested Biden administration plan for keeping them in Reynosa. The New York Times recently termed them as a “volatile logjam” of tens of thousands of other immigrants now waiting for the policy change all over Mexico.

A Bellwether for the Biden Administration’s Replacement Strategy

But because of a powerful deterrent of Title 42 fairly unique to them, the 15,000 Haitians in Reynosa make for a good bellwether for if the administration’s replacement strategy will hold them back as Title 42 has, or will invite the most chaotic rush on the U.S. southern border yet in this third long year of the most voluminous mass migration event in recorded American history.

Why the Haitians of Reynosa Won’t Cross the River

The reason to watch Reynosa after May 12 is that most of its Haitians, long ago overflowing migrant camps all over town, will not dare cross the river while Title 42 is in effect, unlike other nationalities who have already disregarded it by crossing in large numbers. The Haitians of Reynosa won’t go even as they enviously witness large numbers of Venezuelans nearby illegally cross in an overwhelming new surge despite Title 42 and see the American government admit them into the country.

Haitians like Shalo Veno, his back to a squalid shantytown where he lives with 500 others, explained that he and his fellow countrymen won’t dare likewise test Title 42 because, whereas most other Title 42 expellees just end up back in Mexico, Haitians could be flown — and often enough are — all the way back to their home island of Haiti, a consequence far costlier for them.
“When I travel here,” Veno said in broken English, pointing at the other bank, “the American policeman keep me and send me back to Haiti. I’m afraid. I’m afraid. I’m afraid. That’s the reason I’m not going. I’m afraid.”

As the world watches and waits to see what will happen after May 12, the Haitians of Reynosa remain in limbo, unsure of what their future holds.

Reynosa: The Perfect Bellwether for Biden’s Border Plan

Shalo Veno of Haiti, in Reynosa Mexico (Todd Bensman)

The ending of Title 42 has a significant impact on the population of Haitians in Reynosa, making them the perfect bellwether to determine if the Biden administration’s plan for May 12 will work as intended. The question is whether the flow of migrants will be orderly or chaotic, posing a political liability for Democrats thinking about the 2024 elections.

Dueling Narratives to Be Decided

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas expressed confidence that the new policies will start to clear the border of any population buildup as its planes and buses move migrants into or out of the country. He hopes his carrots-and-sticks approach will channel all would-be border jumpers into new and expanded “legal pathways” south of the border where U.S. customs will grant greater numbers of humanitarian permits to qualified immigrants through a phone app reservation system called CBP-One.

The CBP-One tool has let immigrants through ports of entry and even from foreign airports in South America and Central America.
Mayorkas believes that imposing consequences for individuals who do not use lawful pathways will act as a deterrent.

Haitians in Reynosa gather at 10 a.m. each morning to check their CBP-One applications, willing to wait rather than potentially face Title 42 expulsions all the way back to Haiti. (Todd Bensman)

Currently, Title 42 is the stick the administration adopted to supposedly force immigrants into the CBP-One line, although thousands are fearlessly challenging it and already threaten to swamp the new border infrastructure because they see their predecessors winning entry. The CBP-One system was already collapsing for lack of the promised stick use.

New Plan to Stop Border Crossers

As the number of border crossers continues to rise, the US government has come up with a new plan to stop them. The plan involves a fast-tracked version of the long-existing “Title 8 expedited removal” system. This system will subject all border crossers to streamlined asylum denials, quick deportations to home countries, a five-year ban on reentry, and prosecution if they keep crossing afterward.

While the government believes this plan will work, skeptics have analyzed it and see a buffet of loopholes that immigrants can quickly discover as a fast-pass right into America. For example, Haitians will learn soon enough if their vanguards get in or get flown to Haiti — and act accordingly.

Fortunes Favor Red Carpet Pathways into America

Reading the fine print in the proposed regulation that will be used as the basis for post-42 policy shows that fortune is stacked in the immigrants’ favor. For starters, none of the new rules and processes will apply to unaccompanied minors. They’ve gotten the free-pass treatment even from Title 42 since the first day of the Biden administration. As a result, they’ve crossed over the border in by far the greatest numbers ever known, more than 350,000.

While it may be true that most immigrants will “be subject to” Title 8 expedited removals, everyone who crosses illegally can be assured that they can win a reprieve by simply claiming asylum, which will buy them enough time on appeal to get released and disappear.

The Mayorkas team has often boasted that the asylum claim reprieve will be brief because all illegal crossers will be “presumed” ineligible for asylum when an expanded cadre of officers starts streamlining online interviews and then swiftly deports those deemed ineligible. But not so fast.

There’s a second reprieve if the asylum reprieve is denied: The proposed regulation adds that the presumption of ineligibility is “rebuttable” on any number of claims. One of several grounds the Haitians and everyone else can be expected to heavily use is that they “face an imminent and extreme threat to life or safety” and can’t be returned. Some can say they’re gay.

These “rebuttals” are supposed to go to immigration judges, who will be surged to ostensibly handle any appeal in three days. But then they can appeal to courts of law beyond that, which adds a third time-consuming reprieve. All they need is to extend the time because the fortunes favor red carpet pathways into America.

Why Biden’s Immigration Policy Will Fail

The Biden administration’s immigration policy is set to fail, and here’s why: the government will be unable to hold so many immigrants in detention and will release most. If an asylum claim doesn’t do the time trick, immigrants can switch to a Convention Against Torture claim and start the clock all over.

Imagine if thousands all do this at once. The setup for rebuttals is almost sure to overflow the river banks, as temporary detention facilities being built (six so far) fill up and there’s no room to detain anymore for the time necessary to adjudicate.

Authorities will then have to release them onto the streets or on personal recognizance papers and disappear into America, waving everyone they know back in Mexico in behind them.

Mostly Venezuelans wait for processing in Brownsville, Texas after abandoning their places in CBP-One lines across in Matamoros. (Todd Bensman)

The Flores Loophole

Another blessed category of immigrant will be anyone who is part of a family with underage children. Their red carpet runs through a well-worn loophole called the Flores settlement, which requires that federal authorities never detain families for longer than 20 days.

The proposed policy says it will respect the Flores settlement’s 20-day detention limit.

I saw a great many Haitian families in Reynosa, maybe even most of them. All should be able to find the Flores loophole red carpet easily because family detention space is limited and overflows immediately. Expect to see families quickly released on personal recognizance papers so that they too can disappear into America.

The Outcome

So what will the Haitians of Reynosa and everyone else do on May 12? They’ll watch the first brave vanguards go forth to test the system for only one outcome: if they get through into America and are not deported.

If they see that, you’ll see them quickly abandon their shantytowns, delete their CBP-One apps, and join the huge wave of humanity that will soon be crossing the river.

Todd Bensman is a Texas-based senior national security fellow for the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington D.C.-based research institute, and a writing fellow for the Middle East Forum. His book, “Overrun: How Joe Biden Unleashed the Greatest Border Crisis in U.S. History,” (Bombardier Books) will be released in February. For nearly a decade, Bensman led counterterrorism-related intelligence efforts for the Texas Department of Public Safety’s Intelligence and Counterterrorism Division. Follow him on Twitter @BensmanTodd.

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