Inflation remains high in recent report.

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise in April, Ensuring Elevated Interest Rates

Gasoline and Rents Drive Up CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in April, driven by higher gasoline costs and rents, according to the Labor Department. The annual CPI increased 4.9% in the 12 months through April, down from 5.0% in March. Used motor vehicle prices rebounded, keeping underlying inflation strong. Economists had predicted the CPI would climb 0.4% last month and increase 5.0% year-on-year.

Oil Prices Push Gasoline Costs Down

Gasoline prices rose last month after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced further oil output cuts. However, oil prices have since been largely trending lower, pushing gasoline costs down as risks of a recession have increased due to the Fed’s punitive rate hikes, tightening credit conditions, and an impasse over raising the federal government’s borrowing cap.

Higher Inflation and Labor Market Resilience

The inflation data followed last Friday’s employment report, which showed an acceleration in job and wage growth in April, as well as the unemployment rate falling back to a 53-year low of 3.4%. Higher inflation and labor market resilience make it unlikely that the Fed will start cutting interest rates this year as currently expected by financial markets.

Core CPI Lifted by Used Cars and Trucks

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.4% last month, matching March’s gain. The so-called core CPI was lifted by used cars and trucks, which increased for the first time since last June. Though rents continued to put upward pressure on the core CPI, rental inflation is poised to ease.

The Fed’s Monetary Policy Tightening Campaign

The central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range last week and signaled it may pause its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s, though it kept a hawkish bias. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 500 basis points since March 2022.

Overall, the inflation report and labor market resilience suggest that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for a while, despite market expectations of rate cuts.

Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama

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