Trump memo in Arizona plays down abortion as Democrats focus on the issue

The Trump campaign is downplaying the importance of abortion in the battleground state of Arizona, claiming the issue is a top concern for mostly Democratic voters after the state Supreme Court upheld a 19th-century near-total ban on abortion.

After conducting an internal poll from April 7-11 of 400 likely general election voters in the Grand Canyon State, Trump’s top pollster, Tony Fabrizio, concluded that abortion is less important for Republican and independent voters, according to an internal campaign memo.

“Arizona voters are NOT preoccupied with the Abortion ruling, it is largely Democrats,” Fabrizio wrote in the memo, pointing to the section of the survey in which respondents were asked to weigh in on what story has recently captured their attention, pointing to the 24% of Democrats who cited the Arizona abortion news versus 6% of independents and 5% of Republicans.

However, when the topics of “Arizona abortion ruling / abortion ban” and “abortion / women’s rights” are combined, 16% of voters polled mentioned that as their top story, which was tied with “Israel / Gaza.” Both are higher than the 13% that cited “Border / illegal immigration / open border” as a top story.

When Arizonans were specifically asked about their top voting issue, abortion was not as prominent. The campaign found that among voters they believe to be “persuadable,” their top issue was inflation (22%), followed by taxes, government spending and debt (14%), protecting democracy (13%), honesty in government (13%), and immigration and border security (12%). Only 3% of those voters cited abortion as a top issue.

“Not only has the race in Arizona not changed as President Trump continues to lead, but Arizona voters are not as focused on the Abortion ruling or abortion as an issue overall as Biden and the Beltway Media want everyone to believe,” Fabrizio wrote.

However, some Republicans in the state think it could be too early to fully capture the impact of the court ruling last Tuesday that will soon put into place a near-total abortion ban in the state that only makes exceptions to save the life of a pregnant woman.

“The ban still hasn’t gone into effect yet, so I think it’s probably nearly impossible to measure the impact of it all,” said a Republican consultant speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect candidly on the situation.

“I think the Trump team is trying to project a position of strength, but the fact of the matter is, once this law is officially implemented and people of our state see what it means, I think it will matter a lot more,” the person added. “This memo just isn’t a true reflection of what voters think, I think the polling is going to shift in the weeks to come.”

The ban is set to take effect 14 days after last Tuesday’s ruling, on April 23, and will replace Arizona’s 2022 law, which restricted most abortions after 15 weeks gestation.

Meanwhile, Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-AZ) campaign is highlighting abortion as a top issue, releasing a new digital ad that features likely Republican challenger Kari Lake and puts together a highlight reel of her previous comments, praising the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the 1864 abortion ban. Lake said in a 2022 interview on The Conservative Circus with James T. Harris that she was “incredibly thrilled that we are going to have a great law that’s already on the books. I believe it’s ARS 13-3603.”

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However, last week, Lake clarified her stance on abortion, speaking out against the Arizona ruling while also pushing GOP lawmakers in the state to repeal it.

“If you look at where the population is on this, a full ban on abortion is not where the people are,” Lake said in a video response to the ruling last week.

The outcome of the election in Arizona could determine which candidate takes control of both the White House and Congress. Joe Biden won Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020 and voter registration data continue to show how influential moderates will be this cycle. The state’s 1.4 million voters listed as “other” now make up 34% of Arizona’s electorate, far outnumbering Democrats and only slightly behind the number of registered Republicans.