Iowa, one week away
IOWA, ONE WEEK OUT: The Strangest Presidential Nomination
The first votes to be cast in the most unconventional presidential nomination in anyone’s memory will be cast one week from tonight in the Iowa caucuses. The polls say former President Donald Trump will dominate the race, and they’re probably right. In the current RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump has a massive 32.7-point lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and a 35.2-point lead over Nikki Haley. No one else really matters. Trump has a 45.4-point lead over Vivek Ramaswamy and a 47.6-point lead over Chris Christie. And remember Asa Hutchinson? He’s still in the race, trailing Trump by a staggering 50.6 percentage points.
One caution: The polls are old.
The most recent polls in the RealClearPolitics average are all pre-holiday surveys, making them now three weeks old. If there has been any shift among, say DeSantis and Haley, in the last three weeks, we don’t know it yet. Look for a bunch of new polls, including the high-profile Des Moines Register poll, to come out between now and Jan. 14.
But you have to ask: Are today’s polls gonna be wrong by 35 points? Could there be a 35-point event to change the race? It doesn’t seem likely. There have been some spectacular polling failures in the past, but if the final polls from Iowa show Trump’s lead remaining stable, as it has been for quite a while, it would be earth-shattering news if someone else won the Iowa caucuses.
Trump really wants to win Iowa. He lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2016, which is something he mentions to this day in conversations with Iowa Republicans. As later years showed, he does not take well to losing.
To make sure he wins this time, Trump has created an entirely different campaign organization from 2016. Truth be told, in 2016, there wasn’t much organization at all. Trump drew big crowds but did not put together a sophisticated turnout operation that would get those supporters to the caucuses. This time, Trump has put together what neutral observers say is a remarkably effective organization, down to the precinct level. He has gotten tens of thousands of Iowans to commit to caucusing for him and has recruited many more to help them get to the caucuses locations.
When asked to rank the strength of the candidates’ ground games, those neutral observers say DeSantis’s is probably the best, with Trump not too far behind. Haley, they say, is not at DeSantis’s and Trump’s level when it comes to ground operations.
But the big contrast is between Trump’s 2016 get-out-the-vote organization and his effort in 2024. There’s no comparison. Put his current level of organization together with a 32.7-point lead and Trump seems unbeatable.
If that is true, then the game really will be what it has always seemed: a contest for second place. There are two elements. One, will either DeSantis or Haley rise close enough to Trump for the media to declare it an upset and an unexpected horse race? And two, will DeSantis defeat Haley by a clear margin in Iowa before going on to the next state, New Hampshire, where Haley has surpassed DeSantis?
Unless some unexpected reversal occurs, it appears that Trump’s two big bets are going to pay off in Iowa. One, he skipped all the Republican debates and did not seem to suffer any damage with GOP voters. And two, he has run a largely arm’s-length campaign in Iowa — no all-99-counties marathon for him — and maintained a big lead.
But there’s still a week to go. Let’s look at the new polls and get an updated sense of where things stand. But the situation is likely to remain fundamentally unchanged: an unprecedented lopsided contest unlike none anyone has ever seen.
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How does the complex process and potential external factors impact the outcome of the Iowa caucuses?
And well-organized campaign machine.
But even with all the advantages and the massive lead in the polls, the Iowa caucuses can still produce surprises. The process itself is famously complex and can be swayed by factors like weather and turnout. And while Iowa is not always the best predictor of the eventual nominee, it does serve as a crucial testing ground for candidates.
For the Democratic side, the race in Iowa is much more competitive. The RealClearPolitics average currently shows a tight three-way race between former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. The lead has shifted back and forth between these three candidates over the past few months, and it is unclear who will come out on top in the caucuses.
One key factor to watch in Iowa is the influence of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Sanders and Warren, both popular with the progressive base, have consistently polled well in the state. If either of them can garner a strong showing in Iowa, it could give them momentum heading into the later primary contests.
But the Iowa caucuses are more than just a race for the nomination. They are also an opportunity for candidates to make their case to the American people and solidify their positions in the crowded field. It is a chance for underdog candidates to break out and for front-runners to show their strength.
Ultimately, the outcome of the Iowa caucuses will shape the rest of the nomination process. A strong showing in Iowa can provide a boost of momentum and attract the attention and support of donors and voters. Conversely, a poor performance can spell the end of a candidate’s campaign.
So, as we approach the one-week mark, all eyes are on Iowa. Will Trump maintain his commanding lead and solidify his status as the front-runner? Will there be any surprises in the Democratic race? Only time will tell, but one thing is for certain: the Iowa caucuses will be a pivotal moment in this unconventional and unpredictable presidential nomination.
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