Iowa Poll: DeSantis, Not Haley, Poses Real Challenge to Trump
The Battle for Iowa: DeSantis vs. Trump
The corporate media’s headlines from a recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa are that Nikki Haley has caught Ron DeSantis, and that she’s on the rise while he’s falling. In truth, the poll reveals that the Hawkeye State continues to look like a two-horse race between DeSantis and the clear front-runner, Donald Trump.
DeSantis vs. Haley: The Numbers
According to the poll, Haley’s support rose from 6 percent in the prior Des Moines Register poll (taken in August) to 16 percent in this one, while support for DeSantis dipped from 19 to 16 percent. (Trump’s support rose 1 percentage point, from 42 to 43 percent.) However, other indicators in the polling suggest that DeSantis is Trump’s only real competition in this pivotal opening state.
The Preferences of Iowa Caucus-goers
- 55 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers listed Trump as their first or second choice, compared to 43 percent for DeSantis and 33 percent for Haley.
- DeSantis was the second choice of 27 percent of respondents, while Haley was the second choice for 17 percent.
- DeSantis had higher favorability ratings among likely caucus-goers than Haley.
These numbers indicate that DeSantis is in a stronger position than Haley in Iowa.
Implications for Haley and DeSantis
- If DeSantis were to fade, it would likely benefit Trump, not Haley.
- If Haley were to fade, it would likely benefit DeSantis.
- If Trump were to lose support, it would likely benefit DeSantis.
These dynamics suggest that Haley is not on the path to victory.
The Media’s Bias
The legacy media have been targeting DeSantis with negative reporting, while favoring Haley. They see Haley as less of a threat to President Biden.
Lessons from the Past
Establishment Republicans have a history of backing candidates who ultimately fail, such as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich in 2016. The media’s support for Haley may be another example of wishful thinking.
The Des Moines Register Poll
The Des Moines Register poll is highly regarded for its accuracy. However, it tends to fluctuate in the months leading up to the Iowa caucuses. In 2016, it incorrectly predicted Ben Carson as the winner. This time, Trump has a significant lead, but DeSantis remains his strongest competitor.
The battle for Iowa is shaping up to be a showdown between DeSantis and Trump, with Haley struggling to gain traction. Will DeSantis convince Republican voters to pass him the baton, or will Trump make history as a three-time presidential nominee? Only time will tell.
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Who holds a stronger position in Iowa, DeSantis or Haley, based on the preferences of likely caucus-goers
The Battle for Iowa: DeSantis vs. Trump
The recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa has sparked headlines in the corporate media, suggesting that Nikki Haley has caught up to Ron DeSantis and that she is on the rise while he is falling. However, a closer look at the poll reveals that the race in the Hawkeye State remains a two-horse battle between DeSantis and the clear front-runner, Donald Trump.
According to the poll, Haley’s support rose from 6 percent in the prior Des Moines Register poll taken in August to 16 percent in this one, while support for DeSantis dipped from 19 to 16 percent. Trump’s support, on the other hand, rose by just 1 percentage point, from 42 to 43 percent. While these numbers may suggest a shift in support, other indicators in the polling point to DeSantis being Trump’s only real competition in this pivotal opening state.
When looking at the preferences of likely Iowa caucus-goers, it becomes clear that Trump still holds a significant advantage. 55 percent of respondents listed Trump as their first or second choice, compared to 43 percent for DeSantis and 33 percent for Haley. Furthermore, DeSantis was the second choice of 27 percent of respondents, while Haley was the second choice for only 17 percent. Additionally, DeSantis had higher favorability ratings among likely caucus-goers than Haley.
These numbers indicate that DeSantis is in a stronger position than Haley in Iowa. Despite her recent rise in support, she still trails behind both DeSantis and Trump when it comes to the preferences of likely caucus-goers. DeSantis, on the other hand, has shown consistent support and remains a formidable opponent for Trump in Iowa.
The implications of these poll results are significant for both Haley and DeSantis. For Haley, it is clear that she still has a long way to go in order to catch up to the frontrunners. While her rise in support is noteworthy, she has not yet been able to surpass either DeSantis or Trump in Iowa. As for DeSantis, these numbers are encouraging for his campaign. Despite a slight dip in support, he remains a strong contender and poses a real threat to Trump’s dominance in the state.
In conclusion, the recent poll in Iowa may have led to headlines suggesting that Nikki Haley is catching up to Ron DeSantis, but a closer look reveals that the battle for Iowa remains between DeSantis and the clear front-runner, Donald Trump. While Haley’s rise in support is notable, DeSantis continues to hold a stronger position in Iowa and is the only real competition for Trump in this pivotal opening state. The race for the Republican nomination is far from over, and Iowa will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.
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