Is America losing naval superiority to China?

It’s no secret that Red China has heavily invested in its armed forces, making the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) the largest military in the world. Equipped with the latest and most advanced weapons systems, the PLA has become a force to be reckoned with.

These developments have led to more aggressive actions by Beijing in the Indo-Pacific region. Recent incidents include a U.S. destroyer being cut off by a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessel in the Taiwan Strait and a Chinese fighter jet coming dangerously close to a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft in the South China Sea.

China has also been regularly intruding into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and issuing threats to invade the island if it doesn’t submit to Chinese control. These actions demonstrate the growing confidence of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party in their military capabilities.

While the U.S. remains the global hegemon, its naval challenges provide an opportunity for Red China to accumulate more power in the Indo-Pacific. However, the U.S. Navy is facing difficulties in maintaining a sizeable fleet and meeting recruiting targets, which hampers its ability to uphold national security and peace.

China’s Military Build-Up

One alarming trend in China’s military rise is the rapid expansion of its maritime fleet. According to data from the Office of U.S. Naval Intelligence, China’s shipbuilders are more than 200 times more capable of producing surface warships and submarines compared to the U.S.

A May Congressional Research Service (CRS) report states that China has been modernizing its navy for the past 30 years, resulting in a much more modern and capable force. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) can now operate regularly in regional waters and expand its operations in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and waters around Europe.

The PLAN currently boasts approximately 340 ships, making it the largest navy in the world. This disparity is expected to grow in the coming years.

On the other hand, the U.S. shipbuilding industry has been in decline, with retirements of ships surpassing the production of new vessels. Inconsistent budgeting, a lack of long-term vision, and manpower deficiencies are hindering the Navy’s ability to grow its fleet. This poses a threat to America’s position as a leading maritime power.

Differences in Capabilities and Readiness

When comparing competing maritime forces, the size of a nation’s naval fleet is not the only factor to consider. Overall capabilities and readiness are also crucial.

According to Brent Sadler from The Heritage Foundation, the U.S. Navy plays a deep-ocean, away game and requires long-range capabilities. However, it lacks certain capabilities, such as long-range air-to-air missiles, needed to counter the China threat.

War games conducted by the Center for Strategic & International Studies revealed that in a military engagement with China, the U.S. would likely run out of key weaponry in less than one week. This highlights the U.S.’ inadequate preparedness for the current security environment.

China’s navy is more suited for conflicts near its coasts, with a focus on defending local waters. While this presents challenges for U.S. naval forces, it also means that the PLAN is not well-equipped for long, drawn-out sea campaigns far from its coastline.

Despite these differences, the U.S. Navy’s dwindling fleet size and ongoing recruiting problems pose a threat to its readiness. Overuse of existing vessels and a lack of manpower lead to maintenance delays and fatigue among sailors.

Addressing these issues is crucial to prevent further decline in the U.S. Navy’s capabilities and maintain its position as a global maritime power.

Read Parts 1 and 2 of The Federalist’s breakdown of the biggest problems facing the U.S. Navy here and here.