Israeli security adviser predicts conflict to continue until 2024

Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza will likely extend past the end of the calendar year, Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said Wednesday.

Hanegbi said Israeli officials expect another seven months of war, which stands in sharp contrast to the growing international backlash calling for a ceasefire that Israel has incurred for the way it has conducted the war, but it also continues Israel’s streak of defiance of international pressure.

“We expect another seven months of fighting in order to deepen the accomplishments and achieve what we have defined as ‘the destruction of the governmental and military capabilities of Hamas,’” he said in an interview with Kan Reshet Bet radio.

Israeli forces entered Gaza on Oct. 27, 2023, about three weeks after Hamas carried out the Oct. 7 terrorist attack that ignited the conflict. Hamas killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped another approximately 250 people, about half of whom are believed to still be held hostage.

Israeli forces began operations in the north and urged Palestinian civilians to flee south, which many did. More than 1 million people fled to the city of Rafah, the southernmost point in Gaza, which is along the border with Egypt. It’s also Hamas’s last remaining stronghold in the enclave, where multiple battalions are intact.

Israel began operating in Rafah in early May, despite repeated warnings from the Biden administration, the United Nations, and several other Western governments and nongovernmental organizations that operations could result in untold numbers of civilian casualties. Nearly 1 million Palestinians have now fled from Rafah, moving closer to the coast in Al-Mawasi.

Over the weekend, Israeli forces launched an airstrike targeting two Hamas leaders in Rafah. The strike somehow led to a secondary explosion and fire, which ultimately killed about 45 people believed to be civilians sheltering nearby, according to Gaza officials.

Israel’s military is investigating what occurred, but a military spokesman told reporters that the munition used could not have “ignited a fire of this size.”

Several countries’ leaders condemned Israel for the strike, though the U.S. wasn’t as quick to do the same.

President Joe Biden said earlier this month he would stop U.S. offensive military aid to Israel if it carried out a full ground invasion of Rafah, and White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday that the United States had not assessed that Israel has done that yet.

“As a result of this strike on Sunday, I have no policy changes to speak to,” Kirby said. “It just happened. The Israelis are going to investigate it. We’re going to be taking great interest in what they find in that investigation. And we’ll see where it goes from there.

“We understand that this strike did kill two senior Hamas heads who are directly responsible for attacks,” Kirby added. “We’ve also said many times: Israel must take every precaution possible to do more to protect innocent life.”

Rafah is a strategically significant area in Gaza for Israel’s intention to defeat Hamas due to its proximity to Egypt. Hanegbi said Israel controls approximately 75% of the Philadelphi Corridor, which is the border between Gaza and Egypt.

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“This area has been historically used to smuggle weapons to terrorists in Gaza,” Seth Frantzman, an adjunct professor fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner about the Philadelphi Corridor. “The [Israel Defense Forces] will continue to uncover tunnels and terrorist infrastructure, such as rocket launchers, in Rafah. It remains to be seen if and when the IDF may reach the sea, however, there are challenges ahead as the IDF presses into densely populated areas, such as the Rafah Camp area.”

The Israeli strike and subsequent fire that killed dozens came just days after the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel must “immediately halt” its offensive into the Rafah enclave in Gaza and news of the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes.