GOP predicts that imprisoning Trump before the RNC convention would guarantee a Republican win

Republicans are warning Democrats that if former President Donald Trump’s sentence in his New York criminal case prevents him from attending the Republican National Committee convention, it will guarantee a red wave for the 2024 election.

Four days before the GOP gathers for the RNC’s convention on July 15, Judge Juan Merchan will sentence the former president after he was convicted of falsifying business records.

In the wake of a 12-member jury finding him guilty of 34 criminal counts tied to a hush money payment scheme during the 2016 election, Trump faces a fine, probation, or up to four years in prison per count. Home confinement is also an option after the historic conviction last month.

But Republicans are already telling Democrats to tread carefully, or else they will all but ensure that the GOP takes back the White House this November.

“I think the Democrat Party better be very cautious because if the [past] sitting president of the United States can’t attend the convention in person, they are essentially electing Donald Trump as president,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) told the Washington Examiner.

Republicans have blasted Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s case against Trump as political persecution and election interference from the Democratic Party.

If Merchan’s sentencing forces Trump to miss appearing at the convention physically, the move would “energize” Republicans, according to Van Orden.

“I think it’ll fire up the Republican base to the point where it’ll be unstoppable,” the Wisconsin Republican said. “And I think independent folks, like I just said, are going to say, ‘We don’t want this. This is not the United States of America that we want to live in. We want to be able to have free and open discourse between political parties without having to worry about being jailed.’”

House Republican Conference Vice Chairman Blake Moore (R-UT) anticipated Trump attending the convention in person. However, he warned, “It would be a bad idea for the Democrats if they tried to manipulate it that way.”

Richard Porter, a national committeeman from Illinois, echoed the lawmakers, saying he is “not concerned” with the prospect that Trump won’t be in attendance in Milwaukee.

But, Porter added, “If that judge compounds the unfairness of the trial with a jail sentence or that otherwise restricts his freedom to campaign, righteous anger at the injustice will wash away Biden and the corrupt establishment in November.”

Unlike any other presidential candidate in American history, Trump has an uncanny penchant for overcoming political adversity.

A few weeks after the unprecedented conviction, Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 45.4% to 44.6%, according to a polling composite from Real Clear Politics.

A post-verdict survey from the New York Times-Siena College of 2,000 people showed Trump besting Biden, 47% to 46%. The lead was a decrease from when Trump led Biden, 48% to 45%, in April and May.

Trump’s conviction also proved to be a fundraising boon for Republicans, with the former president and congressional campaign arms announcing they “shattered” fundraising records in the days after his guilty verdict.

While it is still unknown what path Trump’s sentencing will take, the RNC has denied it is preparing for the possibility that Trump would be forced to attend the convention remotely.

The denial comes after an NBC News report detailed that preparations are being made at Trump’s Florida home at Mar-a-Lago and in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the site of the convention, should the former president need to make an appearance from afar or cannot attend.

“At no time has convention planning involved any option other than President Trump in person to accept his formal nomination as President,” Brian Hughes, the Trump campaign’s senior adviser, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

However, some strategists and legal experts argue it would be to the RNC’s detriment not to have plans in place for the event Trump would need to call into the convention.

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“It would be malpractice not to plan for what Trump himself seems to think is a distinct possibility: that he is sentenced to behind bars before the convention,” a Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner.

“Imagine the spectacle of him delivering an acceptable speech from the visitor room at a jail or prison,” the strategist added. “Trump probably wants this to happen.”