DOGE has implemented significant workforce reductions across various federal agencies as part of its mandate to streamline operations and reduce spending. These actions have led to widespread layoffs and restructuring within multiple departments. The Social Security Administration announced plans to cut 12% of its workforce and the Department of Veterans Affairs said it would terminate 80,000 workers, returning to 2019 staffing levels.

“I mean, there’s immediate impact, you know, I’d say probably some of the strongest outrages [were] in our veterans community, they felt that impact within the first 48 hours,” Weil explained. “One man told us he had just received a referral for treatment and when he went onto his VA portal, it had spun from a two-week review time to estimated to be reviewed by December 2025.”

The district, on Florida’s central coast, has a notably large senior and veteran population. More than 28% of its residents are aged 65 or older, surpassing the national average of 17.7%. Recent figures from 2023 show the district’s median age is 48.5. Approximately 10.1% of the district’s residents are veterans, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey. 

A second special election for Congress is taking place Tuesday in the 1st District between Republican state CFO Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont to replace the seat once held by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL).

Weil, a public school teacher, said regardless of political affiliation, constituents’ well-being and survival are at serious risk as a result of the cuts under President Donald Trump.

“It doesn’t matter if they’re Republican, Democrat or independent. I mean, we’re talking about their ability to live and survive in Florida is at jeopardy,” he told the Washington Examiner.

Weil is facing off against Republican state Sen. Randy Fine in the special election on April 1 to replace former Republican Rep. Mike Waltz, who resigned from his seat in January when he was tapped by Trump to become the U.S. national security adviser. Neither candidate resides in the district, which is allowed by federal law.

When asked, if elected, whether he would stand up to Trump if future DOGE cuts negatively affected the constituents of the district, Fine said he did not believe Trump would do anything to harm the community.

“I don’t think the president’s going to do anything that would negatively impact this district,” Fine said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “So, I don’t know what that would be.”

“The No. 1 issue that’s related to here — and by the way, it’s all six counties — is infrastructure, its roads, its water, its beaches. President Trump believes in infrastructure,” Fine added.

The race has become a closer-than-expected contest. As of Saturday, Democrats were slightly ahead of Republicans in the vote-by-mail turnout. But, early, in-person voting numbers trended Republican.

Overall, the GOP turnout lead was about 9.2 percentage points, a 1.5-point increase from the start of the day on Saturday, the last day to vote early in-person. Those numbers are slightly higher than a St. Pete Polls survey released last week that showed Fine leading by 4 points, within the 4.9-point margin of error.  

On Saturday afternoon, a steady flow of people lined up to vote early in person at the Ormond Beach Regional Library, located in Volusia County.

Laurie McIntosh-Kerans, 68, a registered Republican who voted for Fine, said she believes some changing demographics in the area may make this race a little closer than Republicans had anticipated.

“We’re holding on for dear life because Mike Waltz was a very strong presence and replacing him is hard. But, the thing is, many people have moved in here from the north and I’m one of them,” she said, mentioning she used to reside in Alexandria, Virginia. “I think, ultimately, we will prevail on Tuesday.”

The most recent turnout figures could signal Fine may be headed for a significant underperformance after Waltz won the district by more than 30 points in November 2024 and Trump beat Kamala Harris by 30 points in the same district. 

Adding to the unease for Republicans, Weil outraised Fine 10-to-1 as of the last Federal Election Commission filing deadline of March 12. The Democratic National Committee invested in the rollout of a voter protection program in this district and in the 1st District where another special election is taking place, but did not specify the dollar amount for the investment. DNC Chairman Ken Martin also made his way to the state over the weekend to campaign with Weil. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not invest in either special election. 

“The money that we’ve raised and what we’ve been able to spend has come from people across the country. It’s an entirely grassroots-funded campaign,” Weil said. 

“The DNC we’ve been in touch with since the election. We went up there that weekend in February shortly after our primary and met with Ken Martin. He asked us when we wanted him down here. I told him, the last weekend before the election,” he added.

Democrats saw a glimmer of hope after achieving a significant upset victory in a GOP-leaning state Senate race in Pennsylvania last week. The victory in a district where Trump defeated Harris by 15 points last November could be a turning point amid the party’s historic lows of its popularity in recent polling.

Weil expressed his frustration over the lack of unity among elected officials over how to push back against Trump and Republicans in Congress, specifically referencing how Senate Democratic leadership handled the GOP spending bill to avert a government shutdown.

“It’s surprising to me that there isn’t more unity, but it also seems really clear where our elected should be at,” he said.

“I was disappointed in our Senate minority leader [Chuck Schumer], not because he kept the government open, but because when the opposing party controls the House, the Senate, and the White House, there are very, very few opportunities where they need to come to the table and negotiate for our votes. And to have let one of those opportunities go away without any sort of negotiation or concession, I felt, was a wasted opportunity and not in the best interest of our constituents.”

Republicans currently have a slim 218-213 margin in the House and are eager to keep the Florida district in their possession especially after Trump abruptly pulled the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to be U.N. ambassador on Thursday over concerns about the House math.

“It’s really unfortunate that Stefanik’s nomination had to go down as a result of the House margins, ” said Brian Thomas, a 76-year-old retiree in Ormond Beach who voted for Fine during early in-person voting on Saturday. “I wish it didn’t have to come to that. I’m a lifelong Republican who is thrilled about the GOP trifecta, but we need to ensure that this district stays on our side so they can deliver Trump’s agenda.”

Some Democrats see the potential of a close race as the first opportunity to frame their narrative ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, pointing to what they believe has been a chaotic and extremist first two months of Trump’s second term.

“Anything less than a 30-point win for Republicans in this district is a loss — period, if they don’t get the message that Americans are not on board with the Trump administration’s agenda, then they are not listening,” said Pamela Castellana, a DNC member and the vice chairwoman for the Florida Democratic Party. “But, I do think Josh has a chance to win.”

However, not everyone agrees. Duane Fletcher, a 72-year-old retired restaurant owner, said Weil must win the race to truly send that message and be able to deny Republicans from moving forward with their agenda.

“I think they’ve got to win. The Democrats have to win enough to counteract the other stuff that’s going on with the administration,” Fletcher said, who cast a ballot for Weil at the Ormond Beach Library on Saturday. “I’m concerned about the move toward an authoritarian leader and the fact that Trump does whatever he wants and then asks questions later, that’s not like we’re supposed to be.”

Marilyn Crawford, 75, a retired educator, said she voted earlier in the day for Weil but came back to the polling location to bring her brother-in-law to vote, pointing to the DOGE cuts as a major motivating factor.

“It’s heartbreaking. It brings me to tears to see how they have just destroyed different people’s lives, and all these people work. They have houses to pay for, they have light, water, telephone bills, they don’t have a job,” Crawford explained. “I get Social Security. But is it gonna be here next year? There’s no guarantee. It’s scary times.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recently endorsed Weil, highlighting his background as an “outsider,” a theme the 40-year-old candidate often brings up when addressing voters, while calling his opponent a career politician. Fine has served in the Florida legislature since 2016.

“Josh Weil is a working class father of two and a middle school teacher who knows what it’s like to live paycheck to paycheck,” Sanders said Friday in a statement. “Josh would be a voice in Congress who understands why we must protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and not give massive tax breaks to billionaires.”

REPUBLICANS FRET ABOUT FLORIDA SPECIAL ELECTION IN RED DISTRICT: ‘SET OFF ALARM BELLS’

Weil has been holding public events since December, traveling across the district which stretches along the Atlantic coast and inland to cities like Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, and St. Augustine. He said he isn’t running specifically on the Democratic Party agenda, but instead wants to prioritize the people he would represent.

“I think that’s where we should be if we’re going to be the party of the people. We need to be representing our districts with fidelity. You know, if that’s a lesson to take away from this, how a district is responding to that, then yeah, I hope that it shapes the direction for the next two years,” he said.