Latest Presidential Polls: A Dwindling GOP Field Yields No Major Shifts So Far
The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary: Trump Maintains Massive Lead
The 2024 Republican presidential primary field is shrinking, but former President Trump’s massive lead and the positions of his GOP challengers remain mostly unchanged.
After former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott suspended their campaigns in recent weeks, Trump still sits at 58.3%, according to the Real Clear Politics average of national polling, more than 43 points above Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 14.9%.
Former South Carolina Governor and U.S. ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley comes in at 9.2%, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramamswamy sits at 4.8%, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at 2.4%, according to the RCP average as of Wednesday afternoon. The RCP average still factors in Scott’s support at 2.6%, but his numbers will likely disperse among other candidates in the forthcoming polls.
According to the latest survey from Quinnipiac taken between November 9-13, Trump and DeSantis performed better than their RCP average with the former president hitting 64% and DeSantis getting a slight boost from the previous Quinnipiac poll, up to 16%. Haley was at 9% in the Quinnipiac poll, Ramaswamy hit 4%, and Christie remained at 2%, all matching their national polling averages.
Trump also led Biden in the Quinnipiac poll 48% to 46% in a two-way race. With independent and Green Party candidates factored into the survey, Trump’s share of the vote dropped down to 38% to Biden’s 35%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was at 17%, while independent Cornell West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein tied at 3% each.
A Yahoo News poll conducted over the same time period put Trump at 54%, DeSantis at 15%, Haley at 10%, Ramaswamy at 5%, and Christie at 2%. The Yahoo News poll was also good news for Trump in a projected general election race, showing him leading Biden 44% to 42% in a head-to-head matchup.
An Economist/YouGov poll conducted between November 11-14 showed the former president leading the GOP field at 57%, while the poll gave DeSantis his best marks in a survey since a Monmouth poll in mid-July with the Florida governor coming in at 19%. Haley and Ramaswamy remained at 9% and 4% respectively in the Economist/YouGov poll.
While Trump’s lead in the GOP primary has been consistent and commanding, his recent jump over Biden in numerous general election polls “mystified” Democrats — some of whom are beginning to sound the alarm on Biden’s re-election chances.
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A New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this month got the attention of some Democrats, who expressed worry about how well the former Republican president performed in important battleground states against Biden. In the poll, Trump led Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
What potential factors could change the dynamics of the 2024 Republican primary and challenge Trump’s dominance in the race for the nomination
Nnipiac University, Trump also maintains a strong favorability rating among Republican voters. The survey found that 84% of Republicans have a favorable view of Trump, compared to just 9% with an unfavorable view. This suggests that Trump’s base of support remains solid, despite his time out of office.
In terms of policy positions, the Republican candidates have largely aligned themselves with Trump’s agenda. DeSantis, for example, has embraced Trump’s hardline stance on immigration and has been a vocal critic of COVID-19 restrictions. Haley, on the other hand, has tried to strike a balance between appealing to Trump supporters and distancing herself from some of his controversial rhetoric.
One notable absence from the current field is former Vice President Mike Pence. Pence, who served as Trump’s loyal deputy during his presidency, had been seen as a potential frontrunner in 2024. However, his decision to suspend his campaign suggests that he may be taking a step back from politics for the time being.
While Trump’s massive lead in the polls may seem insurmountable, it’s worth noting that the 2024 primary is still a long way off. In the unpredictable world of politics, circumstances can change rapidly. Just four years ago, few would have predicted that Trump, a billionaire businessman and reality TV star, would become the Republican nominee and ultimately the President of the United States.
There are also other potential contenders who could enter the race and shake up the dynamics. Figures such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have been mentioned as possible challengers to Trump’s dominance. Additionally, the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections, which will determine the composition of Congress, could have a significant impact on the Republican primary field.
As the 2024 Republican presidential primary continues to evolve, it’s clear that Trump remains the frontrunner by a wide margin. His base of support remains strong, and his policy positions continue to shape the party’s agenda. However, with several other candidates vying for the nomination and a long road ahead, anything can happen in the race for the Republican nomination.
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